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As a Californian, my favorite What If is:
What if the Juaristas lost the Battle of Puebla?
Would Maximilian and the Imperialists have been able to defeat the Nationalists?
Would Maximilian have tried to unite his new "subjects" by leading them north to retake the lost Northern Territories?
What would be Washington's and Richmond's reaction to the Imperial Army crossing the Rio Bravo to the Rio Grande side?