Churchill dies on Nelson October 1939

[BlondieBC]

Counter flooding would be of little use, three simultaneous (or near simultaneous hits) on one side whilst cruising at 15 knots will rip her guts out or break her back or both in a very rapid fashion, especially given Nelson's tremendous weight imbalance (which would make her very vulnerable to snapping her keel)

Sure, I think it could break the back, but I just don't think is HAS to break the back (keel). Now sure it will flood, but I granted the ships sinks. Generally speaking, 3 sub/ship launched torpedoes always sink a capital ship, the question is how fast. (Note: Not always true with air launched, smaller torps). And so we are in a situation where he might live, might not. Given say 15 minutes, or even 7, he may make it to a life boat. He may say be on the bridge so it would be fairly easy to get one man to safety. He could also be deep in the ship, drunk off his ass. Or asleep in his quarters.

And we can get anything from a roll over or catastrophic magazine explosion to a slower sinking and roll. Almost all ships roll while sinking, so this will be expected.

Now I can't speak to if this class of ship has a particularly weak keel.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Sure, I think it could break the back, but I just don't think is HAS to break the back (keel). Now sure it will flood, but I granted the ships sinks. Generally speaking, 3 sub/ship launched torpedoes always sink a capital ship, the question is how fast. (Note: Not always true with air launched, smaller torps). And so we are in a situation where he might live, might not. Given say 15 minutes, or even 7, he may make it to a life boat. He may say be on the bridge so it would be fairly easy to get one man to safety. He could also be deep in the ship, drunk off his ass. Or asleep in his quarters.

And we can get anything from a roll over or catastrophic magazine explosion to a slower sinking and roll. Almost all ships roll while sinking, so this will be expected.

Now I can't speak to if this class of ship has a particularly weak keel.

He was on deck with the entire leadership of the admiralty. Not sure where on deck, but he was not below deck.

 

[Curiousone]

...
The USA will be worried, and for the joy of many the mythical B-36 will probably get the green light...and become a waste of time and money for long.

Why is it 'Mythical'? It flew..
Why 'a waste of time & money'? An un-interceptable 40 tonne bomb load is going to make a dent.

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-047.htm

That link has HMS Nelson getting mined & damaged in Dec 1939, two months later. Might as well look at what the damage was then.

...

Few minutes of googling later, found a source:

http://www.naval-history.net/xGM-Chrono-01BB-Nelson.htm

December

4th - At 0752 hours when entering the Loch at 13 Knots NELSON, when in position 5.4 cables 38 degrees from Rudha nan Sasan triangulation station, passed over and detonated a type TMB magnetic mine; although the massive explosion did not kill anyone 73 were injured, of whom 52 suffered lacerating injuries to delicate parts of their anatomies when ceramic toilet pans shattered in the blast. She took on a list to starboard and drew 39 ft forward. Before she could anchor in an appropriate position the light cruiser DRAGON who was fouling the berth had to be moved. At 1210 hours, with the destroyers VIMY and WARWICK secured to starboard and port she finally anchored.

(The mine was one of 18 laid by U 31on the night of 27/28 October, each one of which contained between 420 and 560kg of explosive. U-31 had been ordered to lay her mines within Loch Ewe but was unable to because of the effectiveness of the net between Lookout Point and Mellon Charles. Therefore U 31's captain Habecost laid 18 TMB mines across the narrow entrance instead)

The NELSON sustained serious structural damage and flooding. Within minutes she took on a 3¼ list to starboard caused by flooding between No. 23 and No. 80 bulkheads. Her bottom was also torn in several places, mainly to starboard; the outer bottom plating for a distance of 70 feet was forced inboard by about 4 feet, and flooding extended over a distance of 140 feet. Main armament equipment, mainly the ammunition supply machinery, was also damaged by shock. No boilers, engines, electrical, steering, or power machinery were affected.
Although seriously damaged she could not immediately be moved for repairs, due to the shortage of minesweepers.
The destroyers FAULKNOR, FORESTER and FURY reminded off the entrance to Loch Ewe carrying out A/S sweeps, as it was first thought that NELSON had been torpedoed.

(The Salvage tugs RANGER (409grt) on other duties, and DISPERSER (313grt) were diverted to Loch Ewe to assist. Destroyer ECHO escorted RANGER from Kilchattan Bay, Isle of Bute, arriving at Loc Ewe on the 5/12/39)

And a few more minutes of googling..

http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WTGER_WWII.htm

Torpedo warheads for german subs appear to be 200-280KG of Hexanite.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Why is it 'Mythical'? It flew..
Why 'a waste of time & money'? An un-interceptable 40 tonne bomb load is going to make a dent.



That link has HMS Nelson getting mined & damaged in Dec 1939, two months later. Might as well look at what the damage was then.

...

Few minutes of googling later, found a source:

http://www.naval-history.net/xGM-Chrono-01BB-Nelson.htm

December

4th - At 0752 hours when entering the Loch at 13 Knots NELSON, when in position 5.4 cables 38 degrees from Rudha nan Sasan triangulation station, passed over and detonated a type TMB magnetic mine; although the massive explosion did not kill anyone 73 were injured, of whom 52 suffered lacerating injuries to delicate parts of their anatomies when ceramic toilet pans shattered in the blast. She took on a list to starboard and drew 39 ft forward. Before she could anchor in an appropriate position the light cruiser DRAGON who was fouling the berth had to be moved. At 1210 hours, with the destroyers VIMY and WARWICK secured to starboard and port she finally anchored.

(The mine was one of 18 laid by U 31on the night of 27/28 October, each one of which contained between 420 and 560kg of explosive. U-31 had been ordered to lay her mines within Loch Ewe but was unable to because of the effectiveness of the net between Lookout Point and Mellon Charles. Therefore U 31's captain Habecost laid 18 TMB mines across the narrow entrance instead)

The NELSON sustained serious structural damage and flooding. Within minutes she took on a 3¼ list to starboard caused by flooding between No. 23 and No. 80 bulkheads. Her bottom was also torn in several places, mainly to starboard; the outer bottom plating for a distance of 70 feet was forced inboard by about 4 feet, and flooding extended over a distance of 140 feet. Main armament equipment, mainly the ammunition supply machinery, was also damaged by shock. No boilers, engines, electrical, steering, or power machinery were affected.
Although seriously damaged she could not immediately be moved for repairs, due to the shortage of minesweepers.
The destroyers FAULKNOR, FORESTER and FURY reminded off the entrance to Loch Ewe carrying out A/S sweeps, as it was first thought that NELSON had been torpedoed.

(The Salvage tugs RANGER (409grt) on other duties, and DISPERSER (313grt) were diverted to Loch Ewe to assist. Destroyer ECHO escorted RANGER from Kilchattan Bay, Isle of Bute, arriving at Loc Ewe on the 5/12/39)

That was one mine; each torpedo that hit the Nelson would have had between 280kg and 430kg of explosives; that is three hits while it was underway, so was not at anchor and stable like the Royal Oak.
Edit: from your link
http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WTGER_WWII.htm

Warhead weight for these torpedoes confilicts in many references. I have seen numbers as low as 617 lbs. (280 kg) and as high as 948 lbs. (430 kg). It is possible that the lower numbers were for torpedoes issued early in the war and then heavier warheads were introduced during the war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hexanite

Hexanite is significantly more powerful than TNT on its own.

The Barham was probably the best example of what would happen after three such torpedo hits while underway:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Barham_(04)

Sinking

On 25 November 1941 at 4.25pm, while steaming to cover an attack on Italian convoys with the battleships Queen Elizabeth, Valiant and an escort of eight destroyers, Barham was hit by three torpedoes from the German submarine U-331, commanded by Lieutenant Hans-Dietrich von Tiesenhausen. Leading Telegraphist A.R. Bacon remained at his station following the first attack to alert accompanying ships of the presence of U-331, which greatly aided the search and rescue. The torpedoes were fired from a range of only 750 yards providing no time for evasive action, and struck so closely together as to throw up a single massive water column. As she rolled over to port, her magazines exploded and she quickly sank with the loss of nearly two thirds of the crew. The explosion was caught on camera by Gaumont News cameraman John Turner, who was on the deck of the nearby Valiant. Out of a crew of approximately 1,184 officers and men, 841 were killed. The survivors were rescued by the other British ships.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth-class_battleship#Armour

Armour protection was modified from the previous Iron Duke class, with a thicker belt and improved underwater protection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenge-class_battleship#Armour_protection

Anti-torpedo bulges were included, which provided superb protection against attacks by torpedo for its time, but due to the increasing power of torpedo warheads, proved to be not enough[4] for Royal Oak when she was torpedoed at Scapa Flow in 1939.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson-class_battleship#Armour

Water filled compartments surrounded by air-filled torpedo bulges were fitted internally between the external hull of the ship which was not armoured.

I don't think the Nelson would have faired well against three torpedoes, given the experience of the older Queen Elizabeth and Revenge class BBs in WW2. It doesn't seem that the defenses were much better than the Revenge class if at all and we know what happened to the anchored and therefore more stable Royal Oak when taking three hits. The Nelson was sailing and less stable, so three hits in very quick succession would have sunk it even more quickly, given that the Nelson designed in the early 1920s and compromises by the Washington Naval Treaty, which resulted in the Nelson-class BBs instead of the planned N3 class.

The anti-torpedo bulge of the Nelson class was discarded by the 1930s, which suggests it wasn't the best choice.

 

[sitalkes]

Why not just have Churchill die in the New York car accident before the war? Or does that result in arguments about where the torpedo bulges were in taxis or that this was a treaty taxi, so it was the wrong shape? The only advantage to this scenario is that it decapitates the RN leadership and gives the Germans a huge morale boost by sinking the best ship in the British fleet (plus you can fix all the other torpedoes so lots more British ships sink during the invasion of Norway).

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Why not just have Churchill die in the New York car accident before the war? Or does that result in arguments about where the torpedo bulges were in taxis or that this was a treaty taxi, so it was the wrong shape? The only advantage to this scenario is that it decapitates the RN leadership and gives the Germans a huge morale boost by sinking the best ship in the British fleet (plus you can fix all the other torpedoes so lots more British ships sink during the invasion of Norway).

It also keeps butterflies to a minimum leading up to WW2. Of course we could have a similar result to the end result of this POD, which is no Churchill to challenge Halifax's premiership.

 

[sharlin]

I'll point this out about the Royal Oak. Would she have sank, yes, but everyone forgets that she was in port, none of her bulkheads were shut and most of her crew were asleep. The Nelson would have been fare more prepared to take the hits including shut bulkheads and a crew not caught quite literally napping. Also the Nelrods torpedo bulkheads were a massive improvement over the R or QE Classes. But disregard away.

 

[Cook]

There are an enormous number of opportunities to kill off Winston Churchill throughout his career; the man lived life to the full, some would say with reckless abandon. By the end of World War Two he was the most travelled world leader in history, having racked up thousands of miles in aircraft (he was only the second serving British Prime Minister to fly) in an era when aviation was dangerous even without the added peril of warfare added to it. If you want to change history, simply choose a date that is most convenient for you and wave a stick, you are guaranteed to hit five easy ways of killing him off.

 

[lukedalton]

Why is it 'Mythical'? It flew..
Why 'a waste of time & money'? An un-interceptable 40 tonne bomb load is going to make a dent.

Sure, by the time it effectively fly in OTL but by 1940 was too technologically advanced and there was not a proper doctrine, basically going directely for the B-36 mean skip an entire generation (even regarding motor and targeting) and loss every lesson learned with the B-17 and B-29.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Also the Nelrods torpedo bulkheads were a massive improvement over the R or QE Classes. But disregard away.

Do you have some sourcing for this? I can't seem to find much about the Nelson's torpedo defenses relative to earlier models of BB.

 

[sharlin]

The book Nelson to Vanguard is my main source but nothing online and nothing I can type out here at work.

 

[MattII]

Do you have some sourcing for this? I can't seem to find much about the Nelson's torpedo defenses relative to earlier models of BB.

Well I don't know about the overall effectiveness, but those water-filled compartments sound to me like they'd make a Barham type end unlikely, and given the hull shape I can't see the torpedoes getting near her keel (unless they were using magnetic triggers, and even then, it's unlikely IMO, since the flat bottom would surely set them off early anyway), but tearing herself further open with is probably a possibility, although I think Yorktown was doing near on 20 kts when she got hit by a pair, and it didn't kill her, but maybe the extra weight of armour and guns will be enough to make her turn turtle. There's also the possibility that she'll suffer the fate of the Prince of Wales, one hit near the screw shaft, and the shaft bends, and quickly reams a hole in the hull leading right into the engine rooms.

 

[sharlin]

Well I don't know about the overall effectiveness, but those water-filled compartments sound to me like they'd make a Barham type end unlikely, and given the hull shape I can't see the torpedoes getting near her keel (unless they were using magnetic triggers, and even then, it's unlikely IMO, since the flat bottom would surely set them off early anyway), but tearing herself further open with is probably a possibility, although I think Yorktown was doing near on 20 kts when she got hit by a pair, and it didn't kill her, but maybe the extra weight of armour and guns will be enough to make her turn turtle. There's also the possibility that she'll suffer the fate of the Prince of Wales, one hit near the screw shaft, and the shaft bends, and quickly reams a hole in the hull leading right into the engine rooms.

Assuming a hit in the arse that really is worst case scinario for a warship save a hit in a magazine. But assuming a hit like the Prince of Wales suffered that would still mean she'd go down slowly enough for a semi orderly abandon ship order to be given with priority going to the visiting dignitaries who would be shipped over to a destroyer as fast as possible.

Yorktown came verrry close to capsizing, it was only due to absolutely heroic damage control work and the sturdyness of the design that she didn't turn turtle after her hits, remarkably capable class of carriers.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

IIRC barham was hit from a comparable low distance three (?) hits almost at the same place . incientally the BACK ammo room blew up, could have been a fire caused by shockwave - so barham is also a bad example as explosion ios not always caused by torp hit.

But It COULD have happened even with good TDS

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well I don't know about the overall effectiveness, but those water-filled compartments sound to me like they'd make a Barham type end unlikely, and given the hull shape I can't see the torpedoes getting near her keel (unless they were using magnetic triggers, and even then, it's unlikely IMO, since the flat bottom would surely set them off early anyway), but tearing herself further open with is probably a possibility, although I think Yorktown was doing near on 20 kts when she got hit by a pair, and it didn't kill her, but maybe the extra weight of armour and guns will be enough to make her turn turtle. There's also the possibility that she'll suffer the fate of the Prince of Wales, one hit near the screw shaft, and the shaft bends, and quickly reams a hole in the hull leading right into the engine rooms.

From earlier:

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-047.htm

The British Nelson Class of 1922 was the first Treaty-limited design, but used a conventional layered TDS. However, the Nelson’s belt was placed inboard of the side shell, permitting torpedo blast to travel up the exterior of the armor yet still destroy the skin of the ship, possibly permitting flooding over the top of the TDS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_class_battleship#Armour

Water filled compartments surrounded by air-filled torpedo bulges were fitted internally between the external hull of the ship which was not armoured.

 

[MattII]

From earlier:

I simply said that I though going Barham was unlikely thanks to those water-zones, not that Nelson would have survived easily (the water would probably have made it even more likely for her to 'turn turtle').

 

[PMN1]

There are an enormous number of opportunities to kill off Winston Churchill throughout his career; the man lived life to the full, some would say with reckless abandon. By the end of World War Two he was the most travelled world leader in history, having racked up thousands of miles in aircraft (he was only the second serving British Prime Minister to fly) in an era when aviation was dangerous even without the added peril of warfare added to it. If you want to change history, simply choose a date that is most convenient for you and wave a stick, you are guaranteed to hit five easy ways of killing him off.

Churchill is protected by the same forces that protected Hitler until 30 April 1945.

 

[brazen]

I'll point this out about the Royal Oak. Would she have sank, yes, but everyone forgets that she was in port, none of her bulkheads were shut and most of her crew were asleep. The Nelson would have been fare more prepared to take the hits including shut bulkheads and a crew not caught quite literally napping. Also the Nelrods torpedo bulkheads were a massive improvement over the R or QE Classes. But disregard away.

People seem quite keen to ignore the fact that the royal Oak was not at any state of readiness in her home port, that's the reason she sank so quickly.

People also forget that ships like HMS Edinburgh took two U-boat torpedoes and managed to be towed to Murmansk for repairs, indeed she had to be hit with a third torpedo on the way home to finally cripple her even then she had to be scuttled, she was a third of the size of HMS Nelson with a much thinner TDS, yet she didn't sink with two hits.


3 torpedoes is going to hurt Nelson, an extended period of flooding may even put her in danger of floundering but she is unlikely to capsize quickly as the torpedoes will struggle to penetrate the main citadel through the TDS, so yes the side of the ship may well be chewed up, but I would not expect extensive flooding inside the armored citadel initially and the areas outside the TDS are sacrificial so heavy flooding there is not as dangerous to ship as flooding inside the citadel.

I would imagine Churchill would be unceremoniously picked up by his bodyguards/aides and dumped in the first available life boat and quickly transferred to another ship, what he wants to do will not really come into the equation.

The TDS system on Scharnhorst took 4 heavy 21" torpedoes from RN dds at the North Cape and still only slowed to 20 knots, yet a bigger, heavier Battleship with a well laid out TDS with multiple liquid/dry layers and 1.5" thick torpedo bulkhead is going to sink from 3 hits from a submarine torpedo with a small warhead while closed up at steaming stations, it's very very unlikely IMO.

 

[sharlin]

*snip*

Quite true but this is AH.com where the RN does usually one of three things.

A: (also the most common) Either suffers from a form of mental retardation at EVERY LEVEL from a man on a machine gun to the 1st Sea Lord.

B: British warships will suffer spontanious detonations of their magazines if anyone so much as looks at them mean or there is a loud noise nearby.

C: Causes the enemy ships to suffer the above fate.

Which is why in my story thats currently on Hiatus about an AU WW2 (and WW1) i'm trying to strike a balance and not turn it into a wank/screwfest.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

To be honest RN ships sometimes blow up if the Germans do a sneaky thing

Aboukir Houge and Cressy
Jutland
Royal Oak
Hood
Barham
Ark Royal

Might be coincidence...