Chuck's big mistake

King Charles XII aka Karl XII aka Carolus Rex aka Sweden's Chuck Norris was a pretty interesting fella. Where did he go wrong? Obviously invading Russia wasn't his best idea but did he have another option? Could he have just sat in the Baltics, sucker punching Russian armies until Tsar Peter decided Sweden wasn't worth the effort?
 
In my opinion his biggest issue was that he didn't know when to make peace. At various points in the Great Northern War he was in a position to make a negotiated peace (and was encouraged to do so by England/Great Britain and the Dutch Republic, who were unhappy about the effect on Baltic trade the war was having), at least allowing some breathing room and time for recovery and a future assault on Russia/the Baltic, but refused to do so, allowing a coalition to be put together against him.

EDIT: He also had a bit of bad luck that Peter the Great managed to escape at the Battle of Stănileşti - in OTL Peter got away but was nearly captured by the Ottomans. If he had been captured, the Russians would have to accept an even more unfavourable peace in 1711. This happens in my timeline 'A Brief History of the House of Hanover' [/plug]
 
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Pretty much this, I think. It is almost a law of nature that successful invaders in Russia miss the opportunity to make favourable peace. Of course this would still have left the Baltics as a potential flashpoint for future conflict, but I can't see any way Sweden and Russia would not have had a contentious relationship. And there's always the chance the Russians are kept busy on their southern flank. Saxony and Denmark can be dealt with more readily.
 
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