Christians Retake Constantinople - Now What?

CalBear

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GdwnsnHo,
So, Jew-killing genocides are fine for you, and only Christian genocides matter? Or did I misunderstand?

Wow. Talk about a false accusation of Antisemitism. There is no way that any reasonable reading of the post you reacted to implies anything in the same hemisphere as your accusation.

You have two recent warnings, one from dragging current politics into a pre-1900 discussion and one for going well past the line in reacting to a comment.

This is even further out of line. Accusations like this are extremely serious hereabouts and should not be made lightly.

Kicked for a week
 
Best chance is in the 1780's. Both Austria and Russia were pushing back the Ottoman without much trouble.

Only Prussian threats of intervention kept the Ottoman from complete collapse in Europe (Rumelia and Greece).

The Ottaman owes the last 150+ years of its history to European politics.
 
No they don't. Russia's performance in the 1877 war was abysmal, and many on the forum have noted that they could have easily lost if not for some unlucky moves from the Turks. But even given that they win, I don't think Russia has the strength to push all the way down to Kostaniyye; again, based off of their abysmal performance in the 1877 war.

Can we just put this bullcrap to rest once and for all?

Russia, with its inferior arms procurements, without western allies, with no blue-water navy, and at best a numerical parity throughout most active theatres, managed, on the offensive at all times, to overcome a well-supplied, well-entrenched, well-armed Turkish army supported by a sizable navy, which was defending across rivers and mountainous passes from some truly magnificent defensive positions - while incurring less casualties, and ending the war in Adrianople and looking at the walls of the enemy capital itself.

This is not to say the Ottomans couldn't have won, there's lots of ways in which they could have done better, and maybe should have. But historically, they got absolutely smashed, curbstomped, flattened, overrun, etc. by an inferior force aided by volunteer militas, and basically had to be saved by their European allies through diplomacy.

The Crimean war was far more of a Russian victory than 1878 was for Turkey, to put it plainly. Japan's outstanding performance in 1905 was actually less lopsided in their favour than Russia's abysmal performance in 1878. That's the benchmark we are talking about here.

I have no idea what makes people say that 1877/78 was a close run thing. It was not. Turkey should have done better, yes, but it turned out to be a complete disaster for them, and that's all there is to say, really.

And yet people just keep repeating how the Ottomans "almost won": here and here for example.
 
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Could a similar scenario, but with Britain rather than Russia in military control of the area have been a possible scenario? Of course they wouldn´t be the defenders of the Orthodox world, but if they had the opportunity, I would assume they would have been very interested, due to the strategic importance of the area.

At what point, if any, would it have been most easy for Britain to take Constantinople?

I think you need a real collapse of the Ottoman Empire for this to happen.

Remember: The British were essentially content with the status quo in the Straits all the way through the 19th and early 20th centuries. Having a weak Turkey controlling the straits was vastly preferable to Russia controlling them. The Turks weren't seen as a threat to Britain's Mediterranean lifeline. The Russians were. So why would they want to change that? Even if they're in charge of the Straits in some new scenario, they're now under a (resource draining) obligation to keep the control.

But if the Turk has collapsed, most any British government (even Gladstone) would rather have its own troops and ships there if there MUST be some foreign great power having troops and ships in the Straits. And in this case, it would almost certainly take the form of expanding Greece (Britain's client state) to control most or all of the Straits, with the UK maintaining some sort of bases there as guarantor.

Giving it to Bulgaria would be, of course, the equivalent of giving it to Russia.
 
Best chance is in the 1780's. Both Austria and Russia were pushing back the Ottoman without much trouble.

Only Prussian threats of intervention kept the Ottoman from complete collapse in Europe (Rumelia and Greece).

The Ottaman owes the last 150+ years of its history to European politics.

Good case to make for this, since Britain wasn't really in a position to stop them.

And it was primarily Britain that kept the Ottomans alive and in Constantinople from Napoleon onward.
 
Giving it to Bulgaria would be, of course, the equivalent of giving it to Russia.
This is incorrect, except for the short period between 1878 and 1885, when Bulgaria was a close Russian ally. In fact, during the Balkan war Russia was completely opposed to Bulgaria capturing Istanbul.
There are of course, other, much more important reasons why Bulgaria getting Istanbul is unlikely, most importantly the demographic and military factors.
 
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I think what is shown by all the posts is that, in the end, it would be decided that it would be best left to Turkey. The best chance of a change is 1912 which lies outside this part of the forum. Just possibly as a separate European Turkey city state.

No one in the Balkans would trust Greece or Bulgaria with it. None of the Great Powers would trust any of the others with it.
 
This is incorrect, except for the short period between 1878 and 1885, when Bulgaria was a close Russian ally. In fact, during the Balkan war Russia was completely opposed to Bulgaria capturing Istanbul.
There are of course, other, much more important reasons why Bulgaria getting Istanbul is unlikely, most importantly the demographic and military factors.

Sorry - I should have clarified that I was talking in the context of the 1877 Russo-Turkish War (or some alt-history equivalent in roughly that same time frame) - since I think this is probably the best bet for a post Napoleonic War point where you could get Constantinople away from the Turks.
 
I think what is shown by all the posts is that, in the end, it would be decided that it would be best left to Turkey. The best chance of a change is 1912 which lies outside this part of the forum. Just possibly as a separate European Turkey city state.

No one in the Balkans would trust Greece or Bulgaria with it. None of the Great Powers would trust any of the others with it.

Well, maybe you could make it a Free City (with Thrace being divided up between Greece and Bulgaria, perhaps), under some great power garrison acceptable to all. That results in de facto Christian control - there would be some "self deportation" of many Turks, who would no longer feel safe in a city no longer theirs. It likely also results in a Hagia Sophia given back to the Patriarch, and interminable intra-Orthodox squabbles over control of numerous other former churches in the city....

But the British, as I said, prefer the status quo for the city and the Straits. So you probably need the 1876-77 War to go even more badly for the Turks, with the city falling before the Mediterranean Fleet can do anything about it. At that point, Disraeli might decide that a Free City not under Russian control (and maybe some British garrison on the Dardanelles) can be obtained by trading off a larger Bulgaria to the Russians as the least bad possible outcome.
 
I think what is shown by all the posts is that, in the end, it would be decided that it would be best left to Turkey. The best chance of a change is 1912 which lies outside this part of the forum. Just possibly as a separate European Turkey city state.

No one in the Balkans would trust Greece or Bulgaria with it. None of the Great Powers would trust any of the others with it.

But if some of the mentioned powers were able to take it, what could the others do about it? They could of course try to take military action, but as pointed out, Constantinople is probably the city in the world most difficult to conquer, so if some of the powers still were able to take it, the other powers would not necessarily be able to do anything about it.
 
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