Christians Retake Constantinople - Now What?

[TaetusPrimus]

With the commemoration of the fall of Constantinople, I had in mind some general what if's - say Russia during the 19th (or early 20th) century is able (due to help or lack of enemies) to take control of the Straits and Constantinople. (Or if Bulgaria does, or Greece, or whatever).

We assume St. Sophia will be restored to Christianity, I would guess Sts. Sergius and Bacchus and the other former churches. What about the great mosques, such as Sultanahmet, Sulemaniye, Selimiye in Edirne (assuming Istanbul falls, Edirne will also)? Will they be made churches? Kept as mosques? Made into other use or just bulldozed?

What happens to the Patriarchate if another Orthodox power takes over? Will they fall under the rule of the controlling power? (Russia's Holy Synod existed at the time, so would they have some kind of power sharing or control of the Ecumenical Patriarch?)

What about the Turkish population? Coexistence, second-class status, or expulsion?

 

[Cymraeg]

With the commemoration of the fall of Constantinople, I had in mind some general what if's - say Russia during the 19th (or early 20th) century is able (due to help or lack of enemies) to take control of the Straits and Constantinople. (Or if Bulgaria does, or Greece, or whatever).

We assume St. Sophia will be restored to Christianity, I would guess Sts. Sergius and Bacchus and the other former churches. What about the great mosques, such as Sultanahmet, Sulemaniye, Selimiye in Edirne (assuming Istanbul falls, Edirne will also)? Will they be made churches? Kept as mosques? Made into other use or just bulldozed?

What happens to the Patriarchate if another Orthodox power takes over? Will they fall under the rule of the controlling power? (Russia's Holy Synod existed at the time, so would they have some kind of power sharing or control of the Ecumenical Patriarch?)

What about the Turkish population? Coexistence, second-class status, or expulsion?

What happens next? Simple - there's a massive argument over who owns it. And I mean massive - an international conference with all the Great Powers of Europe shouting at the top of their lungs.

 

[walmart]

The turks will get fucked over with an balken power or russia

 

[ghappy1000]

It depends on when Constantinople is retaken, but the topic is probably common in the forum. It also depends on the circumstances, but the Russian, Austrian or Greek-Turkish wars bringing decisive victories against the Turks and causing unconditional Turkish surrender seem to bring the impact. If not, the Ottomans can hope they would retake or retain their capital city through negotiations, successful defence, counterattack or international pressure. And, the appropriate time frame will be from Peter the Great to the Second World War or Cold War, but the impacts on Turks and Muslims will be the same, which is not good for them.

 

[TFSmith121]

Possibly in 1877-78, which is an interesting time in Europe

Possibly in 1877-78, which is an interesting time in Europe; Russia has the military and economic strength to make it happen, and the Ottomans do not have great power allies willing to defend them (unlike in 1854); now, if the Russians do move from the Balkan states into Thrace, and then Asia Minor, the British may decide they need to prop the Turks up yet again, but:

• The French are not in a position, presumably, to provide the bulk of the Allied expeditionary force, as in 1854-56; and
• The Austrians, Germans, and Russians may be able to come to an agreement over spheres of influence in the Balkans and Eastern/Central Europe that will leave all three - reasonably - content.

The British can mobilize their fleet, of course, but if the Austrians and Germans are able to come to an agreement with the Russians - and diverting Russian attention from eastern Europe to southeastern Europe and southwestern Asia does offer that possibility - then the British can't do a whole lot with the "army" they have available.

The obvious play, at least in terms of geopolitics, is for the French, Germans, Austrians, and Russians to divvy up the minor states in Europe (Balkans and Scandinavia and - potentially - the Low Countries) and tell the British to do their worst.

Without a continental ally willing to provide the cannon fodder, the British can't do much.

Best,

 

['Ezana]

Possibly in 1877-78, which is an interesting time in Europe; Russia has the military and economic strength to make it happen

No they don't. Russia's performance in the 1877 war was abysmal, and many on the forum have noted that they could have easily lost if not for some unlucky moves from the Turks. But even given that they win, I don't think Russia has the strength to push all the way down to Kostaniyye; again, based off of their abysmal performance in the 1877 war.

 

[TFSmith121]

The Russians only have to be

The Russians only have to be less abysmal than the Turks, however.

The Russians were capable enough to achieve their goals in the Balkans, which they were not in 1854-55; the balance had shifted considerably between the Russians and Turks by the 1870s, considering the Turks successfully defended the Balkans against the Russians in 1854 before a single French, British, or Sardinian soldier was in action in the theater.

So, it was certainly more in the realm of the possible in the 1870s than it had been in the 1850s or would be in 1914..

Best,

 

[betrayor]

I think a better time option would be the 1912-1922 wars,
Have the ottomans totally colapse in this case Greece,Bulgaria or Russia can take advantage of the situation and get the City.....

 

[TFSmith121]

The thing is, the military balance between the

I think a better time option would be the 1912-1922 wars, Have the ottomans totally colapse in this case Greece,Bulgaria or Russia can take advantage of the situation and get the City.....

The thing is, the military balance between the Turks on one side and the Greeks and Bulgarians is much closer in the Balkans Wars than between the Russians and Turks in the 1870s, and anything beyond 1913 becomes World War I, and the alliances will weigh in...

They didn't exist as such in 1877-78, so there's a slim chance for such a conflict to remain largely Russo-Turkish.

And the Russians, certainly, have the "surplus" Christian population to change the realities on the ground in northwestern Anatolia; not so much for the Greeks et al in the 'teens or later.

Best,

 

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

I imagine the churches are restored, great celebrations are held. Then Constantinople is returned to Greece, with Russia having some kind of "protector of the realm" type deal. As for the mosques, I'm not sure they'd be destroyed. My guess is they'd be turned into cathedrals and secular buildings.

Not sure how the Turks would fare, but a substantial amount would probably leave on their own.

 

[funnyhat]

I imagine the churches are restored, great celebrations are held. Then Constantinople is returned to Greece, with Russia having some kind of "protector of the realm" type deal. As for the mosques, I'm not sure they'd be destroyed. My guess is they'd be turned into cathedrals and secular buildings.

Not sure how the Turks would fare, but a substantial amount would probably leave on their own.

Assuming the conquest happens in the late 19th/early 20th centuries, I would guess that any sort of peace settlement would grant some toleration to Turkish Muslims, who were around two-thirds of the city's population in 1900, IIRC.

Hagia Sophia and all the other Byzantine churches that had been converted to mosques would of course be converted back. The really major Ottoman mosques, like the Blue Mosque, would probably lose their status since Greece/Russia/whomever would want not want such prominent Muslim structures, but smaller Ottoman mosques would be left alone, I'd imagine.

 

[sleath56]

Would it really go to Greece, though?

Constantinople is the gateway to the Black Sea, and if Russia got her hands on it, I doubt they would just simply hand it over to the Greeks because of some Orthodox camaraderie. The ability to control access to the Black Sea and giving the Imperial Black Sea fleet a door into the Mediterranean would have been huge for Russia. I don't see them letting it go without a fight, or concessions of a perpetual section of the city / naval port ceded to the Russians.

Actually, I can also see the British/French/Austrians being greedy and taking it for themselves.

 

['Ezana]

The Russians only have to be less abysmal than the Turks, however.

The Russians were capable enough to achieve their goals in the Balkans, which they were not in 1854-55; the balance had shifted considerably between the Russians and Turks by the 1870s, considering the Turks successfully defended the Balkans against the Russians in 1854 before a single French, British, or Sardinian soldier was in action in the theater.

So, it was certainly more in the realm of the possible in the 1870s than it had been in the 1850s or would be in 1914..

Best,

I think there is a big difference between being abysmal enough to have your army defeated in what aren't really your core territories and being abysmal enough to lose your capital to a country with an almost equally matched army. The Turks were the former, but not the latter.

Speaking to some of the other posts here, in the (implausible IMO) situation that Kostaniyye is taken nevertheless by Christian forces, I really doubt it would go to Greece. Russia has no reason to give it to Greece, and for that matter nobody else has any good reason to give a strategic location away when they could keep it themselves.

 

[TFSmith121]

I didn't say it was all THAT

I think there is a big difference between being abysmal enough to have your army defeated in what aren't really your core territories and being abysmal enough to lose your capital to a country with an almost equally matched army. The Turks were the former, but not the latter.

Speaking to some of the other posts here, in the (implausible IMO) situation that Kostaniyye is taken nevertheless by Christian forces, I really doubt it would go to Greece. Russia has no reason to give it to Greece, and for that matter nobody else has any good reason to give a strategic location away when they could keep it themselves.

I didn't say it was all THAT likely, but given the strategic situations as they were in 1854-56, 1877-78, and 1914-17, seems more likely in the 1870s than otherwise. The "Great Eastern Crisis" also made clear the European powers' willingness to take advantage of Ottoman/Turkish weakness, given the historical results in Bosnia, Bulgaria, and Cyprus.

Best,

 

[Alstein]

One POD idea

Nappy gets the idea of trying to make Poland a state, and suggests a land/swap with Austria and Russia (and what better way to stop a land war than to have your rivals also warring?)

He suggests Poland gets formed from parts of Austrian and Russian partitions+ Grand Duchy of Warsaw, but after a joint Franco/Austrian/Russian drive to Constantinople.

Austria gets the Western Balkans as compensation, Russia gets Constantinople itself plus whatever it can grab in Asia. Maybe Prince Eugene gets installed as King of Greece?

Of course, the Brits would then be defending the Ottomans, but that's a harder nut, and Prussia is in no shape to do much.

 

[TinyTartar]

A Turkish-British war in the late 1800s that arises out of a conflict over Egypt, or a particularly ambitious British government that decides it wants Palestine, could lead to the Greeks taking Constantinople assuming they come in on the British side.

 

[Eivind]

I have touched upon this scenario in my earlier discussion of an alternate early twentieth great war, where Russia allied with Germany. Such an alliance could have been able to avoid an unrestricted submarine warfare and hence the United States might stay out of the war. Possibly Austria-Hungary would not dare to ally against both Germany and Russia and would either stay neutral, or would be allied with Germany and Russia, which might be possible if Russia supported Bulgaria instead of Serbia. Either way, the Russo-German allies would be dominant, as Germany could concentrate its forces on the west front. Russia could concentrate on the Ottoman Empire, although if Britain was allied with the Ottomans , it would still be difficult (but not impossible) to take Constantinople.

 

[jkay]

But you're forgetting that the Istanbul had such perfect strategic situation that it kept Rome going another several centuries. It was the best strategic situation in the world, easily. So, there was no chance that Russia could take it, or that Istanbul'd fall at Gallipolli, even with Entente at it. Didja know Churchy had such 'confidence' his RN only only had one battleship there, and he was right.

And no alliance would agree on whom got the prize.

I should point out that the Turks have long been free and tolerant. Doesn't that make better rulers than Russia's Putin?

 

[Dementor]

No they don't. Russia's performance in the 1877 war was abysmal, and many on the forum have noted that they could have easily lost if not for some unlucky moves from the Turks. But even given that they win, I don't think Russia has the strength to push all the way down to Kostaniyye; again, based off of their abysmal performance in the 1877 war.

As abysmal was the Russian performance was, they still ended the war in the outskirts of Istanbul. It was the British intervention that saved the Ottomans. Remove that and the Russians could well have taken the city. Of course the hard part is finding a reason for the British not to intervene.

 

[Dementor]

I should point out that the Turks have long been free and tolerant. Doesn't that make better rulers than Russia's Putin?

Is this some kind of a joke? Even if we very generously ignore what happened before 1918, there is the expulsion of nearly the entire Greek population of Western Anatolia (and that's before Greece agreed on a population exchange), the continued mistreatment of the Greeks which had the right to live in Turkey by the treaty of Lausanne, culminating with a massive pogrom, carrying out ethnic cleansing after their invasion of Cyprus and discrimination against the Alevi Shia minority in Turkey. And of course the continuous (until recently) denial of minority rights of the Kurds leading to a war with over 30 thousand dead.