Christianity in China

How likely is it that the Christian movements in China and missionaries could actually convert a significant part of the population in the 1800s, by which I mean 25% minimum?
I’m aware that of course, there were enough conversions to prove very problematic but did it ever approach 75 million? Could it?
 
There are a number of possible pods for this. The Nestorians actually had missions in China already when most of Europe was pagan. The Tang dynasty was very open to outside influences and China largely converted to Buddhism during this period. Withe the right POD you could get large number of Chinese to convert to Christianity through the influence of merchants and missionaries coming from the silk road. Another possibility is for Catholic missionaries to be more successful during the sixteenth century. The Jesuits under Matteo Ricci were successful enough to get admitted to the imperial court and may have been more successful if not sabotaged by the Dominicans and politics back in Europe. Lastly in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries you get the Protestant missionaries some of whom have had no small amount of success in Asia (a quarter of South Korea to-day is protestant) The Taiping rebellion and the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom followed a heterodox offshoot of Protestantism. You could have them succeed.
 
@VictorVanBakker well I really was focussing more on the 19th century Protestant missionaries, and though the jesuits or the Protestants could have been more successful- the question is, is it asb that they’d be so successful that 75 million Chinese have converted by 1900 with an 1800 pod
 
@VictorVanBakker well I really was focussing more on the 19th century Protestant missionaries, and though the jesuits or the Protestants could have been more successful- the question is, is it asb that they’d be so successful that 75 million Chinese have converted by 1900 with an 1800 pod
Well, if the Heavenly Kingdom won, that'd easily lead to a situation with a large portion of China converts to Hong's Christianity by...various means. It's far from ASB, in any case, so long as the Communists don't take over. Korea, for example, didn't see Christianity dominate until well into the 20th century due to missionary activity, the discrediting of local religions by collaboration with the Japanese, nationalism linking with Christianity, economic ties to Christian nations, investments by Christian groups in the form of hospitals, schools, churches, etc., and a more egalitarian stance towards women and those of lower social and economic class. A similar enough situation could arise in China if Christianity isn't explicitly rooted out and banned like in OTL.
 

Albert.Nik

Banned
In my opinion 25% isn't very hard. Sogdia already had a flourishing Nestorian Christianity and with a suitable POD,this could be achieved. If I am not wrong,this Christianity was prevalent among some communities in the Tochrian and then the Uyghur city states. So I don't think its that impossible. You could have a 25-50% Christian China by the time of 1700s-1800s.
 
@VictorVanBakker well I really was focussing more on the 19th century Protestant missionaries, and though the Jesuits or the Protestants could have been more successful- the question is, is it asb that they’d be so successful that 75 million Chinese have converted by 1900 with an 1800 pod

No I don't think it is ASB. I think the crucial thing is for there to be Chinese born missionaries carrying on the message of the Gospel after the initial European missions so that Christianity is not seen as just a foreign religion. For example in Sub-Sahahran Africa most people were converted by fellow Africans and conversion rates increased after independence since the religion lost the stigma of being seen as a European religion. In short there needs to develop a native Christianity.
 
No I don't think it is ASB. I think the crucial thing is for there to be Chinese born missionaries carrying on the message of the Gospel after the initial European missions so that Christianity is not seen as just a foreign religion. For example in Sub-Sahahran Africa most people were converted by fellow Africans and conversion rates increased after independence since the religion lost the stigma of being seen as a European religion. In short there needs to develop a native Christianity.

A good example of this is also Indonesia, where the Christian population increased from 3% to 10% after independence and to today.
 
Christianity was present in earlier times, but really started to be seen as something that fits into Chinese society after the Xinhai Revolution. Many Republican intellectuals had some passing experience with Christianity or professed Christianity themselves, and strains of Protestantism are now a major force in Taiwan and somewhat underground in the PRC. I think that Christianity could become a major force in China earlier than OTL if it ties itself to a successful political/social movement, and the Taiping lend credence to this in a somewhat roundabout way. However, this change may need to be extremely drastic-- conversion rates in Korea only rose dramatically after the upheavals of division and the Korean War, when churches (which had established some minority communities of converts before and during the Japanese colonial era) earned a positive image in society by doing charity work and keeping communities together. American influence also undoubtedly helped things along. A China that undergoes a similar level of upheaval might end up 25% Christian in the end, but probably won't be such a fun place to live. Then again, OTL China did not have it easy either...

Failing that, just have more missionaries enter China in this time, maybe under a Qing interested in education and medicine (where missionaries could make immediate and helpful contributions). As they carry on with their work, they will earn converts, and those converts then spread the word.
 
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