Christian Somalia

Say in the 6th century the Somali tribes converted to Orthodox Christianity, what would the potential ramifications be? Would there be a chance of the entire horn of Africa repelling colonialists?
 
Say in the 6th century the Somali tribes converted to Orthodox Christianity, what would the potential ramifications be? Would there be a chance of the entire horn of Africa repelling colonialists?

While it'd certainly be interesting, the reality is that being Christian didn't stop colonial attempts in OTL Ethiopia or the Kingdom Kongo, I fail to see how it would help in Somalia. That being said, we may see the Portuguese when they first arrive identify the christian Somali polity that may exist in the region as the mythical prester john. They'll seek to establish a trading port in the region, this might spare Zanzibar and the the other coastal trading cities for a time. Portugal might be interested in seriously propping such a polity with the intent that they serve as domestic (to the region) allies against other traders/polities in the region (i.e. Ottomans, Omanis, Persians, Traders from Indian etc) which might lead to further consolidation and technology exchange through the years should whichever power that develops in the region remain strong and stable enough to repel other powers (Ottomans, coastal swahili states etc). Maybe the Somali state that forms will also establish an alliance with Ethiopia and so we'd have an Ethiopian-Somali-Portuguese power bloc in East Africa.
 
Well, they’d probably still convert to Islam to some degree. If they didn’t, Arab slave raids would continuously bombard the Somali coastline.
 
Well, they’d probably still convert to Islam to some degree. If they didn’t, Arab slave raids would continuously bombard the Somali coastline.

It probably would be like Eritrea where the population is evenly divided between Christians and Muslims. This would mean there likely wouldn't be a Somalia or a Somali ethnic group, since over time the culture and language of the Christian Somalis would diverge from that of the Muslim Somalis due to religious and likely political separation.
 
Is it possible a Christian Somalia would allow easier Ethiopian expansion there? An Ethiopian state could stand its ground against Arab raids?
 
Is it possible a Christian Somalia would allow easier Ethiopian expansion there? An Ethiopian state could stand its ground against Arab raids?

Ethiopia’s problem was that they were heavily decentralized and didn’t even have a permanent capital until the 1500s. You’d need a change of focus for them to even go the expansive route.
 
Is it possible a Christian Somalia would allow easier Ethiopian expansion there? An Ethiopian state could stand its ground against Arab raids?

Yes. Probably the best POD for both Somali conversion and Ethiopian expansion is for Ethiopia to consolidate its control over Himyar in the 520s or 530s. Control of both southern Yemen and the horn makes Ethiopia the predominant naval power in the region. My suspicion is that, eventually, Adulis would become the capital of such a realm. Interestingly, this probably pushes most of the more northern Arabs--including the Quraish--firmly into the Persian sphere, since Persia viewed Axum as an ally of the Byzantines.

Now, say there's still a rapid growth of Islam, because the Byzantines and Persians essentially exhaust one another with conflicts. But let's further stipulate that, by this point, the Himyarites are firmly wedded to the Ethiopian crown [this almost certainly requires at least some tolerance for Judaism after the initial conflict between Christian and Jewish Arabs breaks down, and also requires butterflying Abraha's rebellion]. The newly powerful Islamic forces run into difficulties conquering southern Yemen, because the Himyarites are prepared for their style of fighting, they receive reinforcements from Axum, and the still substantial local Jewish population decides the devil they know is better than the devil they don't. However, they do lose territory, and are limited to the coastal cities that can be reinforced easily. None of these butterflies prevent the Muslim forces from rolling through Persia, which would almost certainly still happen. The big question is whether Axum can, or would, help prevent Egypt from falling. To avoid a wank, let's say Egypt still falls, leaving Axum boxed in on 2 sides but still a dominant force in the red sea trade.

Back to the Somalis. Given the perceived need an Adulis-centered Axumite empire would have to defend East Africa against Arab Muslim incursions, they will probably try to expand both trade and their navy. Trade means a possible expansion southward, with coastal Somalis playing a role. So the TTL equivalent of Kiswahili would be a Geez-based creole, not an Arab one.

Beyond that, it's kind of hard to speculate. How long can they survive, and keep Yemen out of Muslim hands? Probably not indefinitely. But can they maintain a navy strong enough to prevent large-scale Muslim invasion across the strait? Again, hard to say.
 
The butterflies of a Sixth Century POD in Somalia could prevent Islam from even coming about.

There’s probably an alternate universe where Muhammad marries a Solomonid and his descendants claim to be both descendants of Abraham and Solomon and the true heirs of Christ, establishing a Patriarchate in Arabia that goes on to spread their version of Christianity across Africa and Asia.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
A Christian Somalia might go Catholic-Orthodox to make itself distinct from the Abissynians.
Identical situation to Alans (Ossetinians) and Georgians/Armenians.
 
A Christian Somalia won't protect them from colonialists or Ethiopian expansionists (important because Ethiopians were invading Somalia and Eriteria (half Christian)) at the same time as the colonialists). In fact I can't see Christianity taking off unless it syncretized with local traditions the way Sufism did. I mean I'm sure there were some city state rulers who were Chrisitian (probably thise early Axum trading posts) but unless you have powerful empires around that give strong trade benefits for converting and a local bully whose Muslim (Christianity became associated with Ethiopians) I don't see it.
 
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The nearby Socotra Archipelago remained predominantly Nestorian Christian until the 16th century despite being under the control of Mahra Sultanate since the 10th century. So I could see a predominantly Christian Somalia albeit with some Muslim pockets here and there.
 
If the Axumites are forced to fall back to their Tigrayan and Amharic principalities earlier, then it could pave the way for Axumite/Ethiopian expansion into the Horn of Africa and potentially into Somalia but this depends on how centralized and unified Axum/Ethiopia is.

Another way could be if Ethiopia secures a more decisive victory over the Adal Sultanate in the Ethiopian-Adal War, spreading Orthodox Christianity to Somalia.
 
If the Axumites are forced to fall back to their Tigrayan and Amharic principalities earlier, then it could pave the way for Axumite/Ethiopian expansion into the Horn of Africa and potentially into Somalia but this depends on how centralized and unified Axum/Ethiopia is.

Another way could be if Ethiopia secures a more decisive victory over the Adal Sultanate in the Ethiopian-Adal War, spreading Orthodox Christianity to Somalia.

Too late for that and a victory that results in Ethiopia taking over Somalia is unlikely. Unlikely in the 16th century.
 
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