Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
If Israel failed to win the war against the Arab Armies and Palestine was still created for whatever reason (buffer between Syria and Jordan etc), how much of Palestine would be Christian?
Christian population in Palestine
- Thread starter Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
- Start date
Current Christian population of Israel is ~2%. Current Christian population of Palestinian territories is ~2.5%. I would expect that your ITTL Palestine would have a smaller Jewish population, because much of the Jewish immigration would not happen. So the overall population would be smaller. And the existing Christian population would make up a slightly larger demographic percentage. But it would really matter how you wrote the scenario.
How about accepting the Christian populations of Egypt, Iraq and Syria?
Would that make a difference?, he population of Christians remained static at around 10 million all through the 20th Centrury until it all kicked off after 2003 and the Arab Spring
Why though? Palestinian nationalism never had anything much to do with Christianity. If anything, it sometimes leaned a little Muslim.
Plus the Christian population of Egypt was (and is) double the population of all of the region, let alone the Christian population.
Very difficult to say. Arab Moslem culture and politics in the last70 years has been dominated by obsessive desire to avenge the humiliation of 1948 (and the later humiliation of 1967), and wipe out the dishonor of an infidel state newly established in the heart of the Dar al-Islam. The relative decline of secular Arab nationalism compared to militant Islam is in part due to the failure of the secular nationalists to destroy Israel. (Though ironically, the three "front-line" states directly engaged against Israel still have secular regimes hostile to Islamic militants.)
What this bears on is how the Christians of Palestine would be treated by the triumphant Arab Moslems. There have been OTL events suggest that the Christians would be variously abused and would emigrate in substantial numbers. For instance, the abuse of Christians in Egypt. Also, the decline of Christian populations in occupied Palestine, particularly in areas where Israel has ceded control to the Palestinian Authority..
The question is, how much of this stems from Moslem Arab frustration and anger against Israel?
Another source of OTL Islamic militance is the immense oil wealth of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom has used this wealth to promote Wahhabist Islam. This has elevated militant Moslem sentiment in societies that had been comparatively pluralist. That factor would almost certainly arise regardless of the fate of Israel.
Another question is who would rule Palestine? There were three Arab forces contending for control: the "Arab Liberation Army" of Fawzi al-Kaukji, the Mufti of Jerusalem, al-Husseini, and his clan militia, and King Abdallah of Trans-Jordan, who had a real army, the Arab Legion. Syria also had territorilal ambitions in Palestine.
OTL, Abdallah was the winner, gaining control of the "West Bank", while the other two were routed and fled into exile. However, it should be noted that the Arab League never recognized Abdallah's annexation of the West Bank to Trans-Jordan. It should also be noted tha Abdallah tried to negotiate a deal with the Zionists before the war, meeting with Golda Meir. She wrote later that Abdallah genuinely regretted the failure, and didn't want to go to war. Also, the Arab Legion captured the Jewish Quarter of Old Jerusalem and the Kfar Etzion bloc of Zionist settlements SW of Jerusalem; in both cases Arab Legion forces respected the rules of war toward the prisoners taken and civilians in the captured areas.
So if Arab forces won the 1948 war, ISTM probable that the Zionists would want to surrender to the Arab Legion, giving Abdallah control - but the other Arab powers might pressure him to withdraw in favor of al-Kaukji or the Mufti. Under Abdallah, Christians would do all right. But al-Kaukji and the Mufti were both thugs. OTOH, the rulers of Syria have all been thugs, but they have made allies of Syria's Christians, who are understandably afraid of the regime's militant Islamic enemies. Al-Kaukji and the Mufti would fight over control. The Mufti was notably ruthless; he gained full control of Arab Jerusalem by a campaign of assassinations against the rival Nashashibi clan. One might see al-Kaukji allying with the Christians as protector against the Mufti.
What this bears on is how the Christians of Palestine would be treated by the triumphant Arab Moslems. There have been OTL events suggest that the Christians would be variously abused and would emigrate in substantial numbers. For instance, the abuse of Christians in Egypt. Also, the decline of Christian populations in occupied Palestine, particularly in areas where Israel has ceded control to the Palestinian Authority..
The question is, how much of this stems from Moslem Arab frustration and anger against Israel?
Another source of OTL Islamic militance is the immense oil wealth of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom has used this wealth to promote Wahhabist Islam. This has elevated militant Moslem sentiment in societies that had been comparatively pluralist. That factor would almost certainly arise regardless of the fate of Israel.
Another question is who would rule Palestine? There were three Arab forces contending for control: the "Arab Liberation Army" of Fawzi al-Kaukji, the Mufti of Jerusalem, al-Husseini, and his clan militia, and King Abdallah of Trans-Jordan, who had a real army, the Arab Legion. Syria also had territorilal ambitions in Palestine.
OTL, Abdallah was the winner, gaining control of the "West Bank", while the other two were routed and fled into exile. However, it should be noted that the Arab League never recognized Abdallah's annexation of the West Bank to Trans-Jordan. It should also be noted tha Abdallah tried to negotiate a deal with the Zionists before the war, meeting with Golda Meir. She wrote later that Abdallah genuinely regretted the failure, and didn't want to go to war. Also, the Arab Legion captured the Jewish Quarter of Old Jerusalem and the Kfar Etzion bloc of Zionist settlements SW of Jerusalem; in both cases Arab Legion forces respected the rules of war toward the prisoners taken and civilians in the captured areas.
So if Arab forces won the 1948 war, ISTM probable that the Zionists would want to surrender to the Arab Legion, giving Abdallah control - but the other Arab powers might pressure him to withdraw in favor of al-Kaukji or the Mufti. Under Abdallah, Christians would do all right. But al-Kaukji and the Mufti were both thugs. OTOH, the rulers of Syria have all been thugs, but they have made allies of Syria's Christians, who are understandably afraid of the regime's militant Islamic enemies. Al-Kaukji and the Mufti would fight over control. The Mufti was notably ruthless; he gained full control of Arab Jerusalem by a campaign of assassinations against the rival Nashashibi clan. One might see al-Kaukji allying with the Christians as protector against the Mufti.
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His first name was Mohammed, so it seems unlikely ...
Mohammed Yasser Abdel Rahman Abdel Raouf Arafat al-Qudwa al-Husseini was a Moslem.
There were Christian Palestinian militants, such as George Habash, but not Arafat.
But Fatah was and is a thoroughly secular nationalist movement.Generally the decline of the Christian populace is attributed to the poor economy, the Israeli occupation, lower birth rates compared to the Muslim Palestinians, and the fact that Christians generally can more easily emigrate because of their better education and foreign connections.