They basically live/d in a few disconnected parts that even collectively would not be economically, politically or militarily viable as a state.
Christian Lebanon?
- Thread starter Dahveed323
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They basically live/d in a few disconnected parts that even collectively would not be economically, politically or militarily viable as a state.
When it received the League of Nations mandate for the territory, in 1920.
According to this map it seems like the majority lives in a fairly connected part:
http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Lebanon_Religion_lg.png
That map is of 2010 to, remember that Lebanon's population has seen massive changes since it first became independent; additionally, even going by that map the population is split between one main area (and note of that area half of it is sparsely populated) and several other smaller bust still major clusters.
Has the map changed a lot since 2010? Let us assume the following possibility. Following an international conference, the druze population were offered a state in the southernmost part of Syria. But there was a hitch. At least 80 % of the druze in the costal region of Lebanon would have to agree to move to the new state, otherwise they would not get their own state. This would make room for immigration of Christians from other parts of the Middle East, possibly also of Christians of Middle East descent living in other parts of the world, and maybe even some Christians with no prior connection to the Middle East. Possibly one could manage somehow to give the new druze state a somewhat larger area than the one populated by the druze today.
Mass movements of people like that generally only happen at the point of a gun. They are almost never voluntary. Even when large numbers of an ethnicity do move voluntarily in the sense a government is not forcing them to move, it is often because of popular violence or the perception of violence panics the people to move.
There are occassional exceptions when large scale movements of an ethnic group occur outside of negative pressures or forced relocation, but they are very rare. Even then such migrantsgenerally assume it is for the long term benefit.
I am talking in terms of purposeful relocation of ethnicities, but normal migration done on an individual level (usually for economic reasons) that retains the ethnic demographics of the home country/region despite large numbers of people moving.
How many local druze, perfectly happen where they are at, going to leave and go someplace else that may not be as good, having to abandon property, neighbors, friends, just for some "homeland"?
More likely scenario is set up Christian homeland (Mount Lebanon partially expanded) and set up a Druze homeland, and let normal migration occur. If the Druze homeland is successful, then we may see ongoing low amounts of migration.
In 1932, if you detached Southern Lebanon, (South Governorate and Nabatieh Governorate, but with Jezzine District staying with Lebanon) as an Independent State, or a part of Syria and made Tripoli a Free City under French Control, the rest of Lebanon would be nearly 80% Christian and Maronites would have a majority.
That seems the easiest way to make Lebanon solidly Christian, and it creates a viable Lebanon (though if there are concerns about viability, Sidon could be added, and it won't shift the demographic picture much, only decreasing the Christian percentage about 3 or 4 percent).
The Druze, Shia, and Sunni would all be at roughly 7% (give or take a percent or two) in this scenario.
That seems the easiest way to make Lebanon solidly Christian, and it creates a viable Lebanon (though if there are concerns about viability, Sidon could be added, and it won't shift the demographic picture much, only decreasing the Christian percentage about 3 or 4 percent).
The Druze, Shia, and Sunni would all be at roughly 7% (give or take a percent or two) in this scenario.
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Well outside my expertise here...
But I recall hearing several times that part of the reason for the decline in the Christian share of the population was Lebanon's substantial emigration over the later 19th and 20th centuries, which was disproportionately Christian.
Any way you could generate have similar levels of emigration, but with a disproportionately Muslim composition?
But I recall hearing several times that part of the reason for the decline in the Christian share of the population was Lebanon's substantial emigration over the later 19th and 20th centuries, which was disproportionately Christian.
Any way you could generate have similar levels of emigration, but with a disproportionately Muslim composition?
Why would the Muslims emigrate? They were in charge. The Christian Lebanese tended to emigrate in order to find better opportunities denied them in the Ottoman Empire. They were a "market dominant minority" like the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, or Jews in Europe, in that denied the typical outlets of upwards progression (politics, military, or land owning) quite a few of them succeeded in lucrative, but socially low prestige, occupations that enabled a large number of them to become educated.
Even if some foreign power moved in and took Lebanon from the Ottomans, the local Muslims are less likely to leave because they have less valuable skills (except for an extremely small number who were already part of the leadership caste and could easily move and get position elsewhere).
I think the only way it might happen is if the Ottoman Empire fell into chaos early on (post-Napoleonic era), and the Christian powers (say France and Russia) quickly moved in to protect the Christian minorities who subsequently ethnically cleansed the local area. Russians would move into Armenia, and the French into coastal Syria.
I think this would be overcomplicating matters though - the easiest solution is to a smaller Lebanese state under the French mandate.
I meant the population has changed drastically between when Lebanon became independent in 1943 and when that map was made in 2010.
That said, yes, the map defanately has changed alot since 2010 given that Lebanon in the time between has gained 1.1 million Syrian Refugees.
None of that would happen since, ya know, the International Community is opposed to forced relocation of populations.
Ultimately Lebanon simply needs major reforms of the political, the total destruction of Hamas (and any small militias) and to have its security guaranteed as a neutral state, not to be torn apart along ethno-religious lines and subject to Crimes Against Humanity.
This seems to be a better map of where the different religious groups live than the one I published earlier: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Lebanon_religious_groups_distribution.jpg
In this map the druze population seems smaller than the first map I came across.
In this map the druze population seems smaller than the first map I came across.