Christian Lebanon?

[Wendell]

-Make the Litani river the Lebanon-Israel border (some of the more hardcore Zionists demanded this IOTL), and give the Bekaa valley plus Tripoli and everything north to Syria. Pretty much all of these areas are Muslim (the Tripoli area has some Orthodox, but I think Sunnis outnumber them).

-Avoid the Civil War. It led to a lot of emigration, and emigrants tended to be predominantly Christian (both because Christians tended to be wealthier and thus in a better position to leave, and because they were better able to integrate into Western countries).

-Have Lebanon fall to the WWI allies much earlier than it actually did, and the Ottomans consequently be even more unpleasant to the Christian minorities in Anatolia, and extend this unpleasantness to Christians in Iraq as well. Thus, during and immediately after WWI, a lot of Armenians and Aramaic and Arabic speaking Christians flee to Lebanon, boosting the Christian population.

-For a pre-1900 POD, have the unpleasantness of 1860 result in Lebanon becoming a French protectorate. Not sure how this would happen, but, if the French are running Lebanon as a full-blown colony, they're likely to encourage European settlement and "encourage" some of the Muslim population to leave. Even if Lebanon is its OTL size, by 1930's it could have Christians as a comfortable majority.

A Litani border for Mandatory Palestine/Israel seems more plausible in either a "No Lebanon" scenario, or in one in which said river also serves as the eastern border of the Lebanese state.

 

[ramones1986]

It could be Falangist, liberal, or something in between.

Pardon me, but I'm thinking of constitutional monarchy... (By the way, is there any Maronite noble families aside from the Chemors [the descendants of the Ghassanids]?)

 

[Iori]

Pardon me, but I'm thinking of constitutional monarchy... (By the way, is there any Maronite noble families aside from the Chemors [the descendants of the Ghassanids]?)

Why would a country that has ethnoreligious issues that was part of one of the most saunchly republican countries on Earth become any sort of monarchy.

 

[ramones1986]

Why would a country that has ethnoreligious issues that was part of one of the most saunchly republican countries on Earth become any sort of monarchy.

Err, we're talking about the topic of a predominantly Christian Lebanon; though monarchy is one of the options, I also recognize that in a predominantly Christian Lebanon, a republic is more possible

 

[Iori]

Err, we're talking about a predominantly Christian Lebanon; though a monarchy is an option, I also recognize that in a predominantly Christian Lebanon, a republic is more possible

Even in a smaler Lebanon though their's still goign to be a substantial non-Christian minority since, as has been discussed, you can't create a viable state out of just the Christian areas, plus a good chunk of the Christian areas are ethnically and religiously mixed.

 

[ramones1986]

Even in a smaler Lebanon though their's still goign to be a substantial non-Christian minority since, as has been discussed, you can't create a viable state out of just the Christian areas, plus a good chunk of the Christian areas are ethnically and religiously mixed.

So despite the population exchange, there's still be remaning Muslim (both Sunni and Shitte) and Druze in an alternate Lebanon? That's actually understandable. Will they be affected by the Aramaization?

 

[Iori]

So despite the population exchange, there's still be remaning Muslim (both Sunni and Shitte) and Druze in an alternate Lebanon? That's actually understandable. Will they be affected by the Aramaization?

Basicaly, though the Shi'ite will be greatly reduced (the Muslim population would likely be 70% Sunni resultingly), as they're actually the one non-Christian religious group in Lebanon that comprise large, majority areas that could be split off.

And, aside from the cultural assimilation of the ancient Akkadian peoples I have no idea what Aramization is.

 

[ramones1986]

And, aside from the cultural assimilatio of the ancient Akkadian peoples I have no idea what Aramization is.

In this topic, Aramaic was considered as the unifying language of the Middle Eastern Christians who settled in Lebanon, so is there a possibility that the Muslim minority could be affected?

 

[Iori]

In this topic, Aramaic was considered as the unifying language of the Middle Eastern Christians who settled in Lebanon, so is there a possibility that the Muslim minority could be affected?

It all depends on who's in charge; a smaller Lebanon with fewer minorities is going to be one that the Christians are more comfortable with and thus are going to fel less threatened by the Muslims and other minority religions, so they're probably not going to try to enforce things on them.

That said, even in Lebanon Arabic and French were the primary languages, even among the Christians so in terms of language you'd probably see a situation where Lebanon has three Official languages, French (as the lingua franca and required by everyone to know), Arabic (used by the Muslims and a good deal of Christians) and Aramaic (used by a minority, like how Hebrew originally was).

 

[Reagent]

Territorial Objectives: 'Squaring the Circle'

The creation of Greater Lebanon on 1 September 1920 satisfied the national aspirations of Maronite religious and political leaders at the time. However, the extended borders entailed the inclusion of a large Muslim population. Whereas the Maronites had constituted a majority in the sanjak of Mount Lebanon, in Greater Lebanon they became a minority. The population of the sanjak in 1911 totalled 414,800 of whom approximately 80% were Christians, with the Maronites comprising 58%. In the areas annexed to the sanjak, the Christians comprised 35% of the population after 1920, with the Maronites comprising a mere 14%(n33) (Figure 2).

At the time, the Muslim population in the annexed territories, who resented their enforced detachment from Syria and regarded Greater Lebanon as an artificial entity, repeatedly insisted on being reunited with Syria, which they regarded as their Arab homeland.(n34) These aspirations posed a fundamental threat to the Maronites' idea of Lebanon as a predominantly Christian state with strong ties to the West. How were the Maronites to retain a politically dominant position in Greater Lebanon where they constituted less than one third of the resident population in 1920?

Already in May 1921 George Samne, a Lebanese immigrant in France, argued that the Maronite political leadership had either to detach the annexed areas in order to retain a Christian majority, and thereby a more consistent Christian identity, or to retain the enlarged borders, which would inevitably require a different approach towards Syria and the Muslim population. He described the fulfillment of the two as an attempt to 'square the circle'.(n35) Five years later, in July 1926, the Maronite Patriarch Huwayik writes to Briand, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs:

The original idea that served as a basis for the establishment of the Lebanese state was to make it into a refuge for all the Christians of the Orient and an abode of undivided fidelity to France, yet we are sorry to say that after eight years of hesitant efforts, more has been lost than gained. Wouldn't be right to do here what was done in the Balkans and Silesia? There is nothing wrong in an exchange of population between Jabal Druze and the Southeastern region of Lebanon, namely the Druze, as well as between the Muslims and Christians of some other regions.(n36)

Neither territorial amputations nor population displacements were effected as a result of unequal ethnic demographic distribution, as seen by some Christian political leaders. The carrying out of the 1932 census and the application of citizenship policies in the aftermath of the census should, however, be seen within a perspective where certain steps were undertaken in order to preserve and buttress Christian hegemony over the state.(n37) What were perceived as unfavourable demographic realities were sought to be controlled through citizenship policies that differentiated between desirable and undesirable members of the Lebanese state.

One indication of the use of citizenship as a means of buttressing Christian supremacy appeared during the census period in 1932. A prominent Maronite political figure, Emile Edde,(n38) proposed measures that 'permit [Lebanon] to have a more consistent Christian majority'.(n39) He recommended the transformation of Tripoli into a free city under direct French control; the Christian inhabitants of the city would obtain Lebanese citizenship while the Muslims would obtain Syrian citizenship. Edde explains:

In this way, Lebanon would number 55,000 Muslims less, which would constitute an agreeable result ... There is also room to make the whole region of South Lebanon, which is composed of a very large Muslim Shiite majority, an autonomous entity. Thanks to this second amputation, Lebanon will be quit of nearly 140,000 Shiite and Sunni Muslims, and remain with a Christian majority equaling approximately 80% of its entire population.

The date of the memorandum, 29 August 1932, suggests that the preliminary results from the 1932 census (which ended in September 1932), showing the close balance in numbers between Muslim and Christian inhabitants on Lebanese territories, were most probably known to its author. This might have encouraged him to propose alternative measures, where the distribution of citizenship was seen as instrumental in order to strengthen Christian numerical dominance before the results were officially presented. The use of citizenship as a political instrument, in ways curiously similar to Edda's suggestions, was effected in the aftermath of 1932 census.(n40) On the one hand, undesirable residents were either excluded from enlisting in personal registries, or they were categorized as 'foreigners'. These steps excluded thousands of residents from acquiring citizenship. On the other hand, 'desirable' emigrants were given the opportunity to register in the census, enabling them to gain Lebanese citizenship.

This might offer a possible POD, though I am not sure if the "autonomous area of Southern Lebanon" was meant to be attached to Syria or remain with Lebanon

 

[SlideAway]

Had the French retained the boundaries of the "Mount Lebanon," plus Beirut and maybe Sidon, I wonder if it could have eventually - after being a French protectorate - it could have been incorporated as a French Département at some point. Given the Francophilia of the Maronites, it doesn't seem impossible.

 

[Iori]

Had the French retained the boundaries of the "Mount Lebanon," plus Beirut and maybe Sidon, I wonder if it could have eventually - after being a French protectorate - it could have been incorporated as a French Département at some point. Given the Francophilia of the Maronites, it doesn't seem impossible.

In that case I'd think the French would actually change the borders elsewhere as well, so while they'd be adding Sidon and Beirut, they'd be chopping off the relatively large Mulsim-majority border areas.

 

[Robin Hood]

I don't get why the Maronites didn't lobby for becoming a French Department being too Francophile.
Also, the Maronites lobbied to include Muslim areas in Lebanon (something the French initially rejected), had Greater Lebanon become a French Department, even with it's Muslim inhabitants, the Christians would have remained secure being part of the French Republic.

 

[Eivind]

A Christian state in the Middle East?

What if religious persecution is another Arab state leads to significant immigration TO Lebanon?

Say, Coptic Christians? for example.

Or Assyrians and other Christians from ISIL-controlled areas today? If Lebanon was divided today, one could get a state that was dominated by Christians. The rest of the country could either join Syria (if Syria continues to exist, which might be in doubt) or form a seperate state.

Here is a map of religious affiliation in Lebanon. According to the map only 21.8 % are Christians: http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Lebanon_Religion_lg.png

According to Wikipedia, 41,5 % are Christians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics

However, Wikipedia states that the share first declined alot, then increased a lot. This is reason to doubt Wikipedia here.

 

[clifton]

Or Assyrians and other Christians from ISIL-controlled areas today? If Lebanon was divided today, one could get a state that was dominated by Christians. The rest of the country could either join Syria (if Syria continues to exist, which might be in doubt) or form a seperate state.

Here is a map of religious affiliation in Lebanon. According to the map only 21.8 % are Christians: http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Lebanon_Religion_lg.png

According to Wikipedia, 41,5 % are Christians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics

However, Wikipedia states that the share first declined alot, then increased a lot. This is reason to doubt Wikipedia here.

It does state that in 1932 Lebanon was narrow christian majority. Maybe if the french establish a druze state and turn Lebanon as a official christian arab homeland and the remainder of Syria will be a arab muslim state. Will the french will likely put much effort in to this, but if it officially declared and popaganded they idea stays. In the twenties and thirties you will have low vice versa migration between christians and muslims, but when nationalisme sets in lebanon identity will be more christian leaned and syria more muslim leaned. It may create a population exchange between them.

 

[Emperor Casey]

Is there the possibility that during the occupation by the French they invest more in building up and modernizing the nation and also treating it in a way to how Israel was? A homeland for Christians in the Middle East? Or have it be treated like northern Algeria and have lots of French move there.

 

[funnyhat]

Why would a country that has ethnoreligious issues that was part of one of the most saunchly republican countries on Earth become any sort of monarchy.

It's not unthinkable. France established or retained numerous monarchies in its colonial empire (Morocco, Tunisia, four of the five Indochinese states), and in fact, even today Wallis and Futuna is a monarchy despite being an overseas territory of France.

And if they acted like that they'd never be welcome since 99% of Lebanese are Arab.

That's actually a very controversial statement. Many Christian Lebanese adamantly deny being Arabs. (In genetic terms, they are most likely correct - most people outside the Arabian peninsula are thought to have little Arab ancestry, having simply culturally assimilated.) In a predominantly Christian Lebanon, Arabic might well be dropped as an official language; Christians tend to be pretty ambivalent about the language while Muslims embrace it more. Christians are often pretty big francophiles, and might have simply adopted French as the sole official language.

 

[funnyhat]

Here is a map of religious affiliation in Lebanon. According to the map only 21.8 % are Christians: http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Lebanon_Religion_lg.png

How did they arrive at such precise figures (down to tenths of percentage points) when there has been no religious census since 1932?

 

[Eivind]

The problem is that without expanding it Lebanon would'nt be a viable state; any Lebanon will have to accept a large Muslim minority, but the borders can be drawn in such a way to allow for it to both be large enough to be viable while also ensuring the Christians are the majority in most of it.

Is this due to topographic reasons? I am not familar with the details, but is the Christian-dominated region to difficult to defend?

I've thought about this ... but Copts are Egyptian in a very profound way and the Copt language predates Arabic in Egypt by centuries.

But the copt language has died out. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coptic_language

As I argued earlier, right now a scenario could be that Christians from ISIL-controlled areas could be encouraged to settle in a new Mini-Lebanese state. Maybe one could even encourage voluntary population transfers.

How did they arrive at such precise figures (down to tenths of percentage points) when there has been no religious census since 1932?

I have no idea. Besides, either this page is wrong or Wikipedia is.

 

[Eivind]

Israel/Palestine

Had the French retained the boundaries of the "Mount Lebanon," plus Beirut and maybe Sidon, I wonder if it could have eventually - after being a French protectorate - it could have been incorporated as a French Département at some point. Given the Francophilia of the Maronites, it doesn't seem impossible.

Actually, I have considered a similar solution to the Israel/Palestine-conflict. What about a possible peace solution, where Israel recognised a Palestinian state on the West Bank (the Gaza strip would either be incorporated in the Palestinian state or become part of Egypt), while Israel became the 51. state in the USA. Such a solution might satisfy Israeli security concerns, as an attack on Israel would be an attack on the United States.