Chinese victory at Talas

What if the Chinese won the Battle of Talas? Obviously, Central Asia would be Chinese instead of Islamic but what else?

That really depends - IOTL, the overall decline of the Tang set in roughly around the time of the Battle of Talas, so it seems rather likely that the Tang would soon lose their political influence in Central Asia anyway.

And as the Abbasids were on the rise at this point, it is very likely that a Muslim defeat at Talas would only delay the Muslim conquest of Transoxiana and Ferghana a bit.

Remember that the position of the Abbasids was very strong in the Khoresan, which borders the territories under nominal Tang control, so Abbasid expansion into Central Asia is still a very likely thing to happen.

But on the other hand; the Abbasids are not the only ones interested in Central Asia - the Tibetans, who still controlled a powerful empire at this point, also made periodic raids into Central Asia, and as the position of the Tang deteriorates, the Tang's Central Asian vassals (such as the Qarluqs) could end up in Tibet's political orbit.

And aside form a somewhat later Abbasid conquest or a rise of Tibetan influence in Central Asia, there is also a chance that some Chinese or Sinified Turkic warlord ends up in the Tang vassal states in Central Asia during the decline and collapse of the Tang dynasty, and manages to carve out his own kingdom or empire in Transoxiana and/or Ferghana. (something like this would not be entirely unprecedented in OTL by the way; the OTL Qara-Khitay were the remnants of the northern Liao dynasty who carved out their own empire in Central Asia after being defeated and expelled by the Jurchen)

Something like that really would put a halt on the expansion of Islam into Central Asia.

And the formation of a powerful Sinitic state in Central Asia would result in Chinese culture remaining (even) more prestigious in Central Asia than in OTL.

Even in OTL, China and Chinese culture remained very prestigious in Central Asia, even well into the Islamic age. The Qara-Khanids, a major 10th century Turkic Muslim dynasty, claimed the very prestigious title "khan of China", even though they had little or no direct contact with China and China's political influence in Central Asia had become very weak.
 
What if the Chinese won the Battle of Talas? Obviously, Central Asia would be Chinese instead of Islamic but what else?

Talas was not all that decisive. China lost Central Asia to the Abbasids because of the An Lushan Rebellion that broke out shortly after. That event transformed Tang China into a more xenophobic and southward oriented empire and began the end of the fascination with Central Asia and assimilating foreigners.

Suffice to say, without the An Lushan Rebellion, the Tang would almost certainly go for a rematch with the Abbasids. The original battle was lost due to Abbasids winning over regional Tang allies, not to any inherent military imbalance. If the An Lushan rebellion happens as in OTL, winning the Battle of Talas would make no difference. Perhaps one POD could be if An Lushan's army was sent to fight at Talas rather than being kept around the Tang capital. I don't know enough of Tang history to say if this was a real possibility.
 
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Paper

By far the most important result of Talas was that the Arabs captured some Chinese who understood how to make paper. These POWs set up a workshop in Samarkand, and some soon moved to Baghdad. By 900 there were over 100 shops in Baghdad making and selling books. Paper later spread via Spain and Sicily to western Europe. It has an enormous advantage over parchment - you can make it from rags, so it's cheap. No paper, much slower growth of European literacy and universities, no Renaissance or moveable type printing press, no European industrial revolution or Great European Land Grab. So: the decisive battle of history?
 
By far the most important result of Talas was that the Arabs captured some Chinese who understood how to make paper. These POWs set up a workshop in Samarkand, and some soon moved to Baghdad. By 900 there were over 100 shops in Baghdad making and selling books. Paper later spread via Spain and Sicily to western Europe. It has an enormous advantage over parchment - you can make it from rags, so it's cheap. No paper, much slower growth of European literacy and universities, no Renaissance or moveable type printing press, no European industrial revolution or Great European Land Grab. So: the decisive battle of history?

Oh, come on - it's not as if the knowledge of making paper would never have spread to the Caliphate if Talas would have been avoided or won by the Tang.

If the Tang would have won the battle of Talas, then the Chinese position (and cultural influence) in Central Asia would have become even stronger than it already was, with as a result that the use of paper could very well have become common in the city states and khanates under Tang overlordship.

And due the Abbasids' keen interest in new technologies and the economic ties between Central Asia and the Middle East (Sogdian merciants and the Silk Route, et al), it propably wouldn't take long before the knowledge of papermaking finds its way to the Caliphate.
 
Ran Exilis - Well, possibly, but both the Tang and Caliphate armies were at or near the edge of their states' spheres of influence - they never met in battle again. The reason for Tang China's loss of influence in Central Asia was surely not the defeat at Talas, but the An Shi Rebellion (755-763), which broke out in the North-East. Following that, China withdrew from Central Asia, and it and the Caliphate were separated by Tibetans and Uighurs. Would they have been interested in paper-making at that time, or capable of transmitting this fairly complex technology?
 
Ran Exilis - Well, possibly, but both the Tang and Caliphate armies were at or near the edge of their states' spheres of influence - they never met in battle again. The reason for Tang China's loss of influence in Central Asia was surely not the defeat at Talas, but the An Shi Rebellion (755-763), which broke out in the North-East. Following that, China withdrew from Central Asia, and it and the Caliphate were separated by Tibetans and Uighurs. Would they have been interested in paper-making at that time, or capable of transmitting this fairly complex technology?

The technology of paper-making dovetails rather nicely with the massive expansion of the ranks of Muslims (the Koran being an important part of that I would assume that cheaper costs for producing Korans would help conversion)- so its possible that the technology would just spread by trade.

Its also possible that it wouldn't, since there are lots of inventions that seem to make sense to spread but never seem to (V-shaped plow anyone?)
 
Ran Exilis - Well, possibly, but both the Tang and Caliphate armies were at or near the edge of their states' spheres of influence - they never met in battle again. The reason for Tang China's loss of influence in Central Asia was surely not the defeat at Talas, but the An Shi Rebellion (755-763), which broke out in the North-East.

You raise a good point about An Lushan's rebellion, but keep in mind that the Chinese defeat at Talas was also a factor in the Tang withdrawal from Central Asia.

Without the defeat at Talas, the Sogdian city states and the Qarluq khanate would remain vassals of the Tang, and they would therefore remain under Tang influence, both politically as well as culturally.

And when the An Shi rebellion strikes, there's actually a half-decent chance that a few Chinese garrisons and outposts in Central Asia survive for a little while after losing contact with the rest of China.

And if there were people who knew how to make paper in the Chinese army at Talas, then I don't see why there couldn't be anyone who just happens knows how to make paper in the Chinese garrisons in Central Asia.

Following that, China withdrew from Central Asia, and it and the Caliphate were separated by Tibetans and Uighurs.

The Abbasids and Tang may have lost their mutual borders, but the trade routes between China and the Middle East continued to function.

Even after the Tang withdrawal from Central Asia, economic links between China and the Middle East and Central Asia continued to exist.

Would they have been interested in paper-making at that time, or capable of transmitting this fairly complex technology?

I don't think that the Uyghurs and Tibetans are very likely to transmit the knowledge of papermaking to the Caliphate.

IMHO, it's far more likely that the knowledge of papermaking is spread via the Sogdians, who basically ran the trade routes between China and the Middle East.

Sogdian merciants often visited China, and particularly the Nestorian and Muslim Sogdians also had strong links with the Middle East - that makes them perfect for transmitting some Chinese knowledge and inventions to the Middle East.

And what's more; Transoxiana, the homeland of the Sogdians, also became one of the heartlands of classic Islamic civilisation during the Abbasid period. Allthough the introduction of paper in the Caliphate might be delayed for a while, it would be almost inevitable for the Muslims in Transoxiana and Ferghana to become aware of the existence and usefulness of paper.

And as the procedure of papermaking is relatively simple and as the Chinese aren't trying to keep the procedure secret, it is almost inevitable that the Muslims learn the technology of papermaking sooner or later.
 
And as the procedure of papermaking is relatively simple and as the Chinese aren't trying to keep the procedure secret, it is almost inevitable that the Muslims learn the technology of papermaking sooner or later.

Yes, good point. We do know other Chinese inventions did spread West at considerably later times - but do you know of any that did so via the Sogdian trade routes you mention? Arnold Pacey (1990) Technology in World Civilization, Basil Blackwell, says:
"Whilst trade provided some contact between China and Iran, detailed technical and intellectual exchanges between China and points west rarely went further than Buddhists in India".
However, he also says paper reached India around 670 "Possibly paper imported from Tibet" - but I read this (it's in a table) as meaning the paper itself, rather than the manufacturing process. I'll look into this further.
finally, Pacey says there were crucial technical innovations in Baghdad: sizing paper with starch (sized paper being better for use with pens rather than the Chinese brushes), and the use of water mills in paper manufacture.

You're certainly right that paper-making could have travelled west even if the Chinese had won at Talas but still withdrawn from Central Asia soon after - but it would have been a matter of chance whether it was 20, 50 or even 200 years later.
 
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