Chinese - Soviet border conflict turns into full scale war
- Thread starter kspence92
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The advantage the Soviets had in airpower, armor, and technology in general would be largely negated by China's overwhelming numbers and fight to the death fanaticism of their troops. Nukes are almost certain if it turns into full scale war, in fact in 1969 the Soviets had prepared a massive nuclear first strike against China and it didn't happen only because Nixon said it would invite an American response in retaliation.
If it is 1969, is China even capable of resisting effectively in the middle of the "Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution?"
Don has a good TL where the war starts with a pre-emptive Soviet strike on Harbin and Lop Nur. The PLA fights with fanaticism and nuclear mines crush the Soviet strike force. Nixon then secretly sends military aid to China in exchange for China ending assistance for North Vietnam. Anti-Soviet riots break out in Warsaw, Prague, and Budapest. India and Pakistan are again at war.
All in all not a fun scenario for anyone.
All in all not a fun scenario for anyone.
Not really. China's advantages in numbers was actually more theoretical then real. The administrative structure to turn their strategic numerical superiority into a operational or tactical superiority wasn't really there and the cultural revolution had gutted a lot of their best junior officers and noncoms*. The problem the Soviets face is actually similar to what the Japanese did in the 30's: they can smash the field armies the Chinese throw at them, but trying to occupy a tremendous country with a giant population that hates you is a quagmire waiting to happen.
The Soviets recognized this and hence there were two basic variations for Soviet war plans in a conventional conflict with China. The first variation was to seize a buffer region in Manchuria and Chinese Central Asia to conduct a largely defensive war until China sues for peace. The second variant was a lightning strike at Beijing deep operations style. The offensive would be structured with the goal to induce the pro-Soviet elements of the Chinese government to seize control and make peace.
Both variants have their advantages, both plans have their flaws. The first variant prevents the problems that would arise from Soviet forces getting stuck deep within China. It has the obvious flaw of guaranteeing a prolonged war that would be a big drain on the Soviet economy. The second variant has the advantage that it offers a way to end the war quickly. If has the flaw that in the case that it fails... well, large Soviet forces would be stuck deep within China.
Of course, if it goes nuclear (and it very much could) the above becomes irrelevant awfully fast...
*There are interesting parallels with both WW1 Russia and early-WW2 Soviet Union here.
Ok, so much for my trivia tonight.
Thanks for the heads up.
Guess then the bombers go after other stuff if nukes have not yet been used.
China in 1969 was a DPRK-esque basket case and this carried over to the PLA. By contrast the Soviet Army was one of the best in the world and had plenty of experience in blitzkriegs, one in Manchuria itself no less. The Soviets would've entered and taken Manchuria and Inner Mongolia much in the same way they did in 1945 - in tanks, in planes, and rather quickly. The Chinese nuclear force would have been bombed into the ground preemptively. Surviving bombers trying to get to Moscow or anywhere else have only slim chances of making the trip, and even if they do, the result is the veritable end of Chinese civilization. Nuclear landmines are still ultimately just landmines and won't stop the Russians from attaining their operational goals, which would likely consist in a march to Beijing, kicking out Mao, setting up a nominally friendly government with authority over Northern China and Manchuria with some diplomatic concessions attached, then leaving.
Seeing the royal mess Mao has made of the country and the party, it wouldn't be hard to find collaborators. The Soviet enemy isn't about to go full Nanjing on the Chinese population either. Basically there is enough potential resistance to Mao that a new government could be set up and be given effective authority relatively quickly. This PoD is one of those "I'd love to write it but it'd take a lot of research and effort I'm not prepared to sink into it" projects.
Seeing the royal mess Mao has made of the country and the party, it wouldn't be hard to find collaborators. The Soviet enemy isn't about to go full Nanjing on the Chinese population either. Basically there is enough potential resistance to Mao that a new government could be set up and be given effective authority relatively quickly. This PoD is one of those "I'd love to write it but it'd take a lot of research and effort I'm not prepared to sink into it" projects.
Yes, the Soviets will roll over China rather easily. There will be some nuclear warfare, it will get ugly. But China won't last long conventionally.
Of course, as ObsessedNuker has pointed out, then the Soviets run into the potential problem of getting themselves into an Afghanistan boondoggle, but 800 times bigger and ten years earlier...
I think the Soviets would be able to avoid the Afghanistan-esque trap, but only if they deign to mostly remove themselves from internal Chinese (i.e. new govt., not wherever Mao or his followers decide to set up camp after getting curbstomped) political affairs after the war. This could be a tall order as the Soviets liked to control other countries, especially those that had previously made trouble for them. China is one of these countries. However, assuming a "Soviet China" existing roughly north of the Yellow River with the rest either in chaos or under the tenuous control of Maoists, I think it could be successful even as a nation in the Soviet orbit, in the same way that East Germany wasn't a complete basket case. Certainly a North China run along the Soviet idea of socialism would do better and be more stable than Mao's "TAKE ALL UR POTS AND PANS AND MELT THEM DOWN" lunacy. Manchuria is already gifted with natural resources and industry, while Beijing provides an existing political center for administrative needs.
Oh, on paper they'll be looking fine. But mission creep has a habit of setting in, and given that this was a period where Brezhnev and Kosygin were both trying to consolidate power unto themselves, neither Politburo faction is going to want to look weak to the other. The geopolitical sense of leaving Southern China to Maoist rot will be undermined by the Soviet desire for hegemony and power politics in the Kremlin, IMO.
The USSR bleeding itself dry trying to subdue China will leave North Vietnam high and dry. What's to stop Nixon from ordering a push all the way to the Chinese border knowing the Chinese aren't in a position to repeat the Korean intervention?
And then what's to stop the Taiwan lobby from demanding US intervention into southern China to grant Chiang a foothold back on the mainland?
There would be three Chinas: a Soviet puppet north, a disintegrating Yangtze River Valley, and a not-so-willing US puppet south. And the Soviet puppet government will still face guerrilla warfare despite Mao's insanity: look at the Cambodian guerrilla war against the Vietnamese-backed puppet government.
And then what's to stop the Taiwan lobby from demanding US intervention into southern China to grant Chiang a foothold back on the mainland?
There would be three Chinas: a Soviet puppet north, a disintegrating Yangtze River Valley, and a not-so-willing US puppet south. And the Soviet puppet government will still face guerrilla warfare despite Mao's insanity: look at the Cambodian guerrilla war against the Vietnamese-backed puppet government.
Curiousone
Banned
Trying to imagine the propaganda by each side.
You're the Capitalists lackeys!
No You're pawns of the Bourgeoisie!
You're the revisionist scum!
No You're the revisionist traitors to the revolution!
Are too!
Am not!
Are too!....
You're the Capitalists lackeys!
No You're pawns of the Bourgeoisie!
You're the revisionist scum!
No You're the revisionist traitors to the revolution!
Are too!
Am not!
Are too!....
If the Soviets invade China I don't see why that would encourage adventurism on Nixon's part.
More likely he would push for a cease fire with North Vietnam.
Getting directly involved in China would seem to be the last resort. Funneling them weapons? Selling them weapons? Making hay diplomatically?
I would not be surprised if those things came to pass, though it seems much more likely under, say, Goldwater, than Nixon.
As of '79, the Chinese planned to launch a first strike on Moscow. They knew they would suffer the worse of a nuclear exchange but between superior numbers and a decapitation strike, they figured they would be able to hold out and eventually overwhelm the Soviets. Apparently Deng told Carter this who was somewhat horrified about their rather flippant views about the deaths of millions of people in nuclear war.
Old Airman
Banned
Methink this is a version of an old legend told about Mao and Stalin. Mao proposed to provoke WWIII and said that even 1:5 loss ratio would mean that West is exterminated and Commies are victorious.
Soviets were scared as hell of the idea of conventional war w/China in 1969. The border is superlong, you just can't protect it adequately, logistic is awful (a single railway track from Ural to Vladivostok) and a force invading China would need to deal with a large force (Japanese were not that large in 1945). So, neither defensive nor offensive strategies were easy, obvious, or cheap. There was a frantic effort to develop some strategy to screen the border from a massive Chinese strike with relatively few troops available, including resurgence of armoured trains and installation of gatling-type guns in pillboxes to defend routes through hill regions of Far East.