Chinese Khalkin Gol, what are the options for Japan now?

Let's say that China is much tougher in the Second Sino Japanese war, maybe a POD where they manage to rebuild their army in 80 German trained divisions like it was the plan, or something else.

The Marco Polo incident happens as usual, but at the battle of Shangai the Japanese are surprised to find a Chinese version of Khalkin Gol when they are soundly beaten back.

Would Japan keep attacking China? If no, what else? Do they invade the USSR? If not, then what?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The Japanese were well aware that the USSR was tougher than China. They’re not crazy enough to go after the USSR after losing to China. Most likely scenario is they stay in China but adopt a more defensive strategy.
 

nbcman

Donor
Let's say that China is much tougher in the Second Sino Japanese war, maybe a POD where they manage to rebuild their army in 80 German trained divisions like it was the plan, or something else.

The Marco Polo incident happens as usual, but at the battle of Shangai the Japanese are surprised to find a Chinese version of Khalkin Gol when they are soundly beaten back.

Would Japan keep attacking China?(1) If no, what else? Do they invade the USSR? (2) If not, then what?

(1) - Yes. Japan was already attacking China from the north after the Marco Polo Incident.
(2) - No, the Japanese wouldn't invade but border skirmishes are likely as OTL.

However, it depends on when the Japanese lose the Battle of Shanghai on what they do. The Japanese forces started at 6,300 Marines but increased to over 200,000. If the Japanese are immediately defeated and driven from Shanghai, the additional forces would either reinforce the northern invasion or be used as OTL to amphibiously invade near Shanghai or some other location. If it occurs after the Japanese have increased their forces, it may lead the Japanese to negotiate similar to what they did after border conflicts in 1933-see the Tanggu Truce. However, if there is another truce between Nationalist China and Japan, Nationalist China would most likely try for a rematch with the Communist Chinese forces. If they have this larger well trained and well equipped force, the Communists would probably be defeated. But the Nationalists having an 80 division well trained and well equipped force in 1937 is probably an ASB scenario because the Nationalists would have had significantly better forces earlier in the Chinese Civil war. This would have allowed them to crush the Communists during the Long March.
 

SwampTiger

Banned
If China is strong enough to beat back Japan at Marco Polo Bridge in the way the USSR did at Khalkin Gol, the Japanese are screwed.

In such a case, the question may be: How would the Japanese Army address the issue of insubordination within the lower officer levels?
Someone, or a group of officers will be required to atone for the shame brought upon the Emperor. In addition, the Japanese Army has to address its training and organization. It may decide a more motorized force or greater artillery emphasis may be needed. It may decide the leaders of the incursion were just lousy commanders.

Why attack at Shanghai, if you cannot win in the north? If beaten at Shanghai, the Navy has to address its own naval landing issues.
 
If China is strong enough to beat back Japan at Marco Polo Bridge in the way the USSR did at Khalkin Gol, the Japanese are screwed.

In such a case, the question may be: How would the Japanese Army address the issue of insubordination within the lower officer levels?
Someone, or a group of officers will be required to atone for the shame brought upon the Emperor. In addition, the Japanese Army has to address its training and organization. It may decide a more motorized force or greater artillery emphasis may be needed. It may decide the leaders of the incursion were just lousy commanders.

Why attack at Shanghai, if you cannot win in the north? If beaten at Shanghai, the Navy has to address its own naval landing issues.

Invite the officers in question to make use of GHQ's Gardens as the site of their ritualized suicides. In all seriousness, it might be better to make a public trial of them, and HUMILIATE them beyond belief during the course of said trial, in an effort to cut down on future 'incidents'.
 
Invite the officers in question to make use of GHQ's Gardens as the site of their ritualized suicides. In all seriousness, it might be better to make a public trial of them, and HUMILIATE them beyond belief during the course of said trial, in an effort to cut down on future 'incidents'.

The February 21 incident, a military coup was dealt extremely harshly. Which is why I dont buy the "the emperor was a powerless man in a government kidnapped by the military".

When Tokyo really wants something done, it gets done.
 
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