Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Good thing the OP post states the invasion is in the 70's or 80's then, so the first PLA troops ashore get a nice big dose of double sunshine.

The OP specifies the invasion occurs in the 70's or 80's. It does not specify when the PoD that leads to said invasion occurs. Without American economic assistance, South Korea and Taiwan would remain largely basket cases incapable of conceivably developing nuclear weapons (and South Korea would probably fall to North Korea in 1950).
 
Given how dirt poor Taiwan and South Korea were in the immediate aftermath of WW2 and remained so all the way until the 1970s* when, in addition to a myriad of other things, the long-term effects of American economic and technical assistance finally began to pay off, the prospect of them obtaining nuclear weapons before their invasion and take over by their communist counterparts in the aftermath of American isolationism reasserting itself in the late-40's as I suggested is essentially zero.

*Seriously, North Korea was richer then South Korea in the 50's and 60's, with the South Korean economic boom not taking off until the 70's. The Taiwanese economy did somewhat better and started to industrialize earlier, but it still took until the mid-60's before it started to take off.

I don't have numbers handy but as I remember the 70s Taiwan was a pretty active presence in global commerce and was already becoming a cheaper place to assemble things to Japan. Given the existential nature of the threat to the Taiwanese government and society I believe they would do everything they can to develop a poison pill. Besides Israel and South Korea I could see Japan and India providing 'quiet' support as a hedge against them being next in line (India was in a quiet low key conflict in the Himlayas with China). Even if the U.S. turned Isolationist I believe there would be a moderate sized pro Taiwan support network among transplants in the U.S. who could provide funds back to the ancestral home.
 
The OP specifies the invasion occurs in the 70's or 80's. It does not specify when the PoD that leads to said invasion occurs. Without American economic assistance, South Korea and Taiwan would remain largely basket cases incapable of conceivably developing nuclear weapons (and South Korea would probably fall to North Korea in 1950).
A POD that far back changes much more than this. I was thinking of an American departure from Asia in the aftermath of the Vietnam war, maybe after the Tet offensive of 1968. Anything before that would cause much larger changes.
 
I don't have numbers handy but as I remember the 70s Taiwan was a pretty active presence in global commerce and was already becoming a cheaper place to assemble things to Japan. Given the existential nature of the threat to the Taiwanese government and society I believe they would do everything they can to develop a poison pill. Besides Israel and South Korea I could see Japan and India providing 'quiet' support as a hedge against them being next in line (India was in a quiet low key conflict in the Himlayas with China). Even if the U.S. turned Isolationist I believe there would be a moderate sized pro Taiwan support network among transplants in the U.S. who could provide funds back to the ancestral home.

Given that a isolationist US would see South Korea fall to North Korea in 1950 and cripple the recovery of the Japanese and European economies, if they don't also outright fall to communist invasion or subversion that is, I'm not seeing Taiwan getting much help from those corners. I'm not informed enough about the Indian or Israelis economies historical developments to know how well positioned they would be to render economic assistance or how whether the quantity and quality of assistance would make up for the loss of OTL US support. I certainly doubt private political donations can make-up for the sort of sums active government transactions can manage.

However, I'm rather certain that Taiwan would not be able to develop a bomb before China. Even with OTL's economic development, their historical nuclear project began in 1967 and still had not yielded a weapon in 1976 when it officially agreed to dismantle the program (although a covert program was continued all the way until the late-80s). The mainland PRC, for it's part, initiated it's nuclear project in 1955 and had it's first bomb by 1964. So the PRC succeeded in 9 years whereas the ROC did not. That speaks to the vaster material and manpower resources available to mainland China, even if one factors in the assistance each side received (Soviet in the mainlanders case).

A POD that far back changes much more than this. I was thinking of an American departure from Asia in the aftermath of the Vietnam war, maybe after the Tet offensive of 1968. Anything before that would cause much larger changes.

That's true. I'd also expect the invasion to come in the 1950s, honestly. Following the conclusion of the Civil War on the mainland, the PRC was actively building just such an invasion fleet all the way up until September 1950, when the American defeat of North Korea at Pusan and Incheon forced them to start diverting resources to intervention in the Korean War. Even with the Korean War distraction, the PRC built up enough naval strength to seize several islands in the Taiwan Straits in 1954 and held them for a year against Taiwanese attempts to retake them, provoking the first Taiwanese Strait Crisis. In the end, it was not Taiwanese military strength but diplomatic negotiations (backed up by unsubtle threats of nuclear force on the US's part) that got the PLA off those islands.
 
How will invasion turn out ?

will taiwan get any outside support ?

As I recall, simulations or wargames at the time indicated, absent the PRC using NBC warfare, the PLA's 5th wave would practically be able to march across the Formosa Straits on the bodies of the first four. If a USN CVBG got involved in Taiwan's defense, the mainland's casualty rate went to nearly 100%.

Remember the PLA of the 70s and 80s is not the PLA now. They had capability, but almost no logistics capability behind it.

As for a scenario, no I can't think of one where the PRC would jeopardize its rising international status and increasingly free markets by exercising the military option with Taiwan. Deng Zhou Ping may have been many things, stupid wasn't one of them.

My thoughts,
 
Does the military balance go in Taiwan favor as time goes by ? I.e Is the imbalance worse in 70s than 80s ?

In OTL, Taiwan enjoyed military advantage over PRC until large scale modernization of the PLA in the 2000s.

When China opened up and reformed in the 80s, the PLA and the military industry sector deteroriated due to decrease in defence budget. Many arms factory, located in remote areas for strategic reason, struggled to survive in market economy as the state no longer provide them with unimited loans and cheap raw materials.

The PLA and the military industry sector also sought to compensate loss of funds by directly joining the market economy, resulting in reduction in training time, deteroriation of discipline and corruption.

The lowest point was the 90s. There were news that naval units conducted smuggling.

With national economy improved, the government ordered the PLA to gradually divert itself from business and return to being a professional force. In the most recent reform, veteran affairs had been taken over by the new Ministry of Veteran Affairs, furthering limiting the PLA from operating in non military matters.
 
1972: Agnew is indicted, Watergate goes hot, and the story about Nixon sabotaging peace talks in 1968 breaks, all before the election. The effect is an 11% swing in the popular vote, which just barely elects McGovern.

Now I'm going to make some wild assertions about McGovern as President which are probably questionable, but not IMO ridiculous. His election slogan was "Come home, America." I take this as a call for leftist neo-isolationism.

Taking office, he announces that the US will no longer oppose wars of liberation or support dictators.

McGovern starts by immediately and unconditionally withdrawing all US troops from Viet Nam and ending all aid to the Republic of Vietnam.

He also withdraws US forces from Korea in protest of the authoritarian regime of Park Chung-hee, and from the Philippines because of Marcos.

US forces also leave Okinawa to appease Japanese sentiment.

It's way too soon for the virulent left-wing anti-Israel sentiment common today, but there's some, and a higher-up in the McGovern administration is exercised over the Liberty incident, and his influence further poisons relations. During the Yom Kippur War, the US does not resupply Israel as OTL, and the emboldened USSR gives the Arabs enough additional help to win. (The US helps evacuate Jewish survivors at the end.)

(What other allies can the US abandon with effect? The Shah? El Salvador?)

Anyway, the Republic of China is next on the list. The US explicitly disclaims any security guarantee for the dictatorial Chiang Kai-shek regime.

With this de facto green light, and US forces withdrawn from the entire region, and the US clearly unwilling to intervene when not directly attacked, the PRC goes ahead with invasion of Taiwan.
 
I think any PLA invasion of Taiwan would turn out much like a Sealion would - the first wave hits the beaches and makes some inroads, but then the US 7th fleet closes the trap shut behind them, and the troops get slaughtered in the coming weeks. The PRC simply doesn't have the navy to compete, nor the air force to control the skies.

Yes! Exactly. And then the USA throws its weight behind Taiwan and Beijing is screwed.
 
It's way too soon for the virulent left-wing anti-Israel sentiment common today, but there's some, and a higher-up in the McGovern administration is exercised over the Liberty incident, and his influence further poisons relations. During the Yom Kippur War, the US does not resupply Israel as OTL, and the emboldened USSR gives the Arabs enough additional help to win. (The US helps evacuate Jewish survivors at the end.)

Do they still refuse to resupply Israel if Israel tells them the Alternative is Israel crossing the Nuclear Threshold as they so nearly did?
 
70s or 80s. Would have loved to be on an American SSN guarding the straights. Only thing that would have slowed you down against the Chinese Navy of that era would be running out of weapons.
 
Do they still refuse to resupply Israel if Israel tells them the Alternative is Israel crossing the Nuclear Threshold as they so nearly did?
That impleis more detail in this part of the scenario than I wanted to get into. However, I did think about it.

Supposing Israel says that...

First, does the US believe them? I.e. does the US agree that Israel's situation is so desperate that Israel will go nuclear?

Second, does the US (McGovern, really) see this as a plea or a form of extortion?

Third, how long does Israel have to wait while the US thinks about it and then decides and then has to figure out what to send and how? Israel may not be able to wait that long.

So IMO there is a good chance Israel goes nuclear.

If so, then given McGovern's record of breaking off with allies and the absence of any formal US security pledge to Israel, and the horror in world opinion at Israel's action...

The USSR might respond by nuking Israel. Israel can' t hit them - and since Israel nuked first, the world would accept it, very likely. Or at least the Soviets might think so - and want to show that unlike the US, they stand by their allies.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
70s or 80s. Would have loved to be on an American SSN guarding the straights. Only thing that would have slowed you down against the Chinese Navy of that era would be running out of weapons.
Isnt the Taiwanese navy of that era more than capable of dealing with PLA navy ?
 
Looking at Navypedia.org (great site), it doesn’t look like Taiwan could deal with the Chinese Navy of that era. But it also looks like China doesn’t have the lift capacity even if Taiwan just watched. I’d also like to use the RSR quote again, “Professionals study logistics, amateurs study tactics.” Supplying invasions is very very difficult. Look at the post DDay problems. Even if China could get enough troops there, could they supply them?
 
Looking at Navypedia.org (great site), it doesn’t look like Taiwan could deal with the Chinese Navy of that era. But it also looks like China doesn’t have the lift capacity even if Taiwan just watched. I’d also like to use the RSR quote again, “Professionals study logistics, amateurs study tactics.” Supplying invasions is very very difficult. Look at the post DDay problems. Even if China could get enough troops there, could they supply them?

The ROCN certainly can deal with the PLAN in the 1970s and 1980s. No PLAN ship was equipped with SAM until the 90s and only 1/3 or 1/2 of the PLAN can be deployed against Taiwan, as the North Sea Fleet have to guard against USSR and the South Sea Fleet has to guard intrusion from SEA.

The large no. of PLAN subs were early cold war stuff that lags behind modern ASW which would be very vulnerable to ROCN/USN, and their range was not that great either.

Also, the amphibious capacity of the PLAN was very poor until 21th century.
 
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