How were the wests relations with taiwan after sino-US rapprochement?
I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
Maybe in aftermath of failed Vietnam war of 1979 to drum up local support and rally the party faithful ?I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
Capability is definitely a big issue , if not a full scale invasion is a siege possible?I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
Does the military balance go in Taiwan favor as time goes by ? I.e Is the imbalance worse in 70s than 80s ?I think any PLA invasion of Taiwan would turn out much like a Sealion would - the first wave hits the beaches and makes some inroads, but then the US 7th fleet closes the trap shut behind them, and the troops get slaughtered in the coming weeks. The PRC simply doesn't have the navy to compete, nor the air force to control the skies.
Blockade/ bombardment seems far more realistic than an actual invasionI don't really know, just that the PLA will be cut off without reinforcements once they land, and they are doomed to failure.
That's if the Chinese can deal with the US 7th fleet, which would almost certainly intervene if the PLA attacked.
Hence why I earlier posited a PoD which see’s the reassertion of American isolationism and hence the denial of both the 7th Fleet’s protection and economic/military assistance that helped Taiwan stabilize and build a capable indigenous military.
If the U.S. did that Taiwan would go into a rush program to create nuclear weapon. The had the technology, they would probably count on assistance from other nations who would see a retreat of an American stabilizing presence in the world as a danger to their survival ( South Korea, Israel immediately come to mind). Once they throw one or two at the invading or blockading force all HE!! will break loose.
If the U.S. did that Taiwan would go into a rush program to create nuclear weapon. The had the technology, they would probably count on assistance from other nations who would see a retreat of an American stabilizing presence in the world as a danger to their survival ( South Korea, Israel immediately come to mind). Once they throw one or two at the invading or blockading force all HE!! will break loose.
All they would need to do is set off one nuke prior, perhaps during the crisis buildup (Since I doubt that Red China will just wake up one day and decide that it's a fine morning for a cross strait amphibious operation) and the invasion option becomes a complete nonstarter. Taipei is not worth Beijing.
Given how dirt poor Taiwan and South Korea were in the immediate aftermath of WW2 and remained so all the way until the 1970s* when, in addition to a myriad of other things, the long-term effects of American economic and technical assistance finally began to pay off, the prospect of them obtaining nuclear weapons before their invasion and take over by their communist counterparts in the aftermath of American isolationism reasserting itself in the late-40's as I suggested is essentially zero.
*Seriously, North Korea was richer then South Korea in the 50's and 60's, with the South Korean economic boom not taking off until the 70's. The Taiwanese economy did somewhat better and started to industrialize earlier, but it still took until the mid-60's before it started to take off.