Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Khanzeer

Banned
Can you guys think of a timeline in which china invades taiwan in the 70s or 80s?

How were the wests relations with taiwan after sino-US rapprochement?

How will invasion turn out ?

will taiwan get any outside support ?
 
How were the wests relations with taiwan after sino-US rapprochement?

I believe they have been about as good as they could be with a country that most western countries don't recognize as a real thing. The US has continued to sell them weapons, treat their leaders like respectable statesmen etc. And the US apparently still doesn't recognize the mainland's claim to the island, which, given that they also don't recognize the ROC, kinda makes you wonder exactly what they think Taiwan is. (And yes, I know the weirdness of that is entirely a product of realpolitik).

But I can't think of anything that would make the People's Republic think that invading Taiwan would be a prudent and productive move. I think you'd need a MAJOR war to already have started, with everyone relatively certain that nukes weren't going to used by any party, before China would go in.
 
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Maybe a Republic of China can invade a Japanese occupied Taiwan in the 1970s/80s as part of a larger world war.
 
I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
 
I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.

Even when Mao was still alive, they were cozying up to the west; Angola and all that. But yeah, things really accelerated on that front when Deng took over.

Certainly, pissing off their new friends would be something they would want to avoid.
 
Well... the big one that really occurs to me is a post-WW2 US which retreats into isolationism and doesn't support Taiwan. That means not only do the Taiwanese not benefit from American military protection, but lack of economic aid and trade relations also leaves them more destitute, less capable of building up adequate defensive forces, and with a more radicalized domestic populace who could support a PRC invasion with a coordinated uprising.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
Maybe in aftermath of failed Vietnam war of 1979 to drum up local support and rally the party faithful ?
WI the west completely abandons Taiwan and provides no assistance?
Afterall Beijing is a far more useful as an ally against ussr

Other scenario I can see is right after Tiananmen square incident , west is already pissed but to gain domestic popularity Chinese can move against Taiwan or Hong kong even ?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
I don't think China had the capabilities or even, really, the interest do that. With Mao out by that point they wanted to cozy up to the West and get the funding.
Capability is definitely a big issue , if not a full scale invasion is a siege possible?

Chinese navy and airforces essentially cut all air and sea travel / trade to Taiwan?
 
Did China have the Naval capacity to do so in the 70's-80's? My understanding was the PLAN during this period was mostly defensive in nature (creation and deployment largely of submarines and anti-naval aircraft from the mainland) and more suited to blockade over supporting naval landings. Even today it has few vessels suited for naval landing and such a build up of forces is likely to be noticed (no surprise attack).

The Taiwanese military is well armed and well trained by Western generals and Taiwan also has only a few good landing spots along it's Western coast that would be savagely defended (defenses along these positions have been built in depth). In addition to that approaches to Taipei involve crossing open mud flats and mountains. The PLA at this time also had little experienced paratroopers, making aerial landing difficult even if they can take control over the airspace (a difficult order).

Finally there is the elephant in the room, the US Navy. If the US joins in the defense or opts to break a blockade, it's game over for the PLAN, they cant compete with the US in terms of numbers or experience.

You'd need to rock the relationship between Taipei and Washington and have different priorities for the People's Republic who weren't super keen on a war at the time.

China and the USSR were also frosty with each other at this point so unsure how they might react (not well versed on Soviet foreign politics).
 
I think any PLA invasion of Taiwan would turn out much like a Sealion would - the first wave hits the beaches and makes some inroads, but then the US 7th fleet closes the trap shut behind them, and the troops get slaughtered in the coming weeks. The PRC simply doesn't have the navy to compete, nor the air force to control the skies.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
I think any PLA invasion of Taiwan would turn out much like a Sealion would - the first wave hits the beaches and makes some inroads, but then the US 7th fleet closes the trap shut behind them, and the troops get slaughtered in the coming weeks. The PRC simply doesn't have the navy to compete, nor the air force to control the skies.
Does the military balance go in Taiwan favor as time goes by ? I.e Is the imbalance worse in 70s than 80s ?
 
That's if the Chinese can deal with the US 7th fleet, which would almost certainly intervene if the PLA attacked.

Hence why I earlier posited a PoD which see’s the reassertion of American isolationism and hence the denial of both the 7th Fleet’s protection and economic/military assistance that helped Taiwan stabilize and build a capable indigenous military.
 
Hence why I earlier posited a PoD which see’s the reassertion of American isolationism and hence the denial of both the 7th Fleet’s protection and economic/military assistance that helped Taiwan stabilize and build a capable indigenous military.

If the U.S. did that Taiwan would go into a rush program to create nuclear weapon. The had the technology, they would probably count on assistance from other nations who would see a retreat of an American stabilizing presence in the world as a danger to their survival ( South Korea, Israel immediately come to mind). Once they throw one or two at the invading or blockading force all HE!! will break loose.
 
If the U.S. did that Taiwan would go into a rush program to create nuclear weapon. The had the technology, they would probably count on assistance from other nations who would see a retreat of an American stabilizing presence in the world as a danger to their survival ( South Korea, Israel immediately come to mind). Once they throw one or two at the invading or blockading force all HE!! will break loose.

All they would need to do is set off one nuke prior, perhaps during the crisis buildup (Since I doubt that Red China will just wake up one day and decide that it's a fine morning for a cross strait amphibious operation with zero prep) and the invasion option becomes a complete nonstarter. Taipei is not worth Beijing.
 
If the U.S. did that Taiwan would go into a rush program to create nuclear weapon. The had the technology, they would probably count on assistance from other nations who would see a retreat of an American stabilizing presence in the world as a danger to their survival ( South Korea, Israel immediately come to mind). Once they throw one or two at the invading or blockading force all HE!! will break loose.

All they would need to do is set off one nuke prior, perhaps during the crisis buildup (Since I doubt that Red China will just wake up one day and decide that it's a fine morning for a cross strait amphibious operation) and the invasion option becomes a complete nonstarter. Taipei is not worth Beijing.

Given how dirt poor Taiwan and South Korea were in the immediate aftermath of WW2 and remained so all the way until the 1970s* when, in addition to a myriad of other things, the long-term effects of American economic and technical assistance finally began to pay off, the prospect of them obtaining nuclear weapons before their invasion and take over by their communist counterparts in the aftermath of American isolationism reasserting itself in the late-40's as I suggested is essentially zero.

*Seriously, North Korea was richer then South Korea in the 50's and 60's, with the South Korean economic boom not overtaking them until the 70's and that was with the Americans basically financing them all through the 50's. The Taiwanese economy did somewhat better and started to industrialize a bit earlier, but it still took until the mid-60's before it really started to take off.
 
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Given how dirt poor Taiwan and South Korea were in the immediate aftermath of WW2 and remained so all the way until the 1970s* when, in addition to a myriad of other things, the long-term effects of American economic and technical assistance finally began to pay off, the prospect of them obtaining nuclear weapons before their invasion and take over by their communist counterparts in the aftermath of American isolationism reasserting itself in the late-40's as I suggested is essentially zero.

*Seriously, North Korea was richer then South Korea in the 50's and 60's, with the South Korean economic boom not taking off until the 70's. The Taiwanese economy did somewhat better and started to industrialize earlier, but it still took until the mid-60's before it started to take off.

Good thing the OP post states the invasion is in the 70's or 80's then, so the first PLA troops ashore get a nice big dose of double sunshine.
 
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