Chinese Gunpowder defeats the Mongols -- Genghis focuses on the west.

Here's a rough idea that I have had for some time.

Due to an earlier invention of firearms by the chinese, they are able to defend their frontier against the Genghis Khan's mongols. But given his determination, he tries another target, Persia (nearly a decade before OTL) and succeeds massively.

As a result ITTL Genghis Khan is more practical and less megalomaniacal given his defeat at the Chinese and he also believes that expansion possibilities lie to the much weaker divided Europe and the Middle east for the same reason. Realizing Chinese superiority (or at least, equivalency) he remains friendly to the two Chinese Dynasties and uses the loot from his Persian and (later) Mesopotamian campaign to import Chinese knowledge while marching westwards. His sons follow his directions and conquer various parts of western Eurasia and before long, they have subdued Europe.

China, meanwhile continues to be left unmolested from outside forces, while a new conflict between Song and Jin, and desire to keep out barbarian horsemen motivates them to further improve firearms. The mongols, meanwhile have progressed to cannons like the ones that brought down Constantinople in OTL and have become the masters of siege.

What would the future of this gunpunk world look like?
 
The Jin dynasty is technically not a Chinese dynasty. It was a kingdom created by the Jurchens, the ancestors of the Manchus. Like the later Qing dynasty, the Jurchens had conquered much of northern China and founded their own dynasty. The people of Jin were mostly Chinese, but their rulers were not.

IMO the main reason the Mongols became the great conquerors they did was because they sacked the Jin. It's the wealth, labor, and technology of the Jin that enabled later Mongol conquests. If the Mongols failed to defeat the Jin, they would be of little consequence. Genghis himself would suffer great loss of prestige.

Song China would be delighted at this scenario, since the Jin and not the Mongols were their arch enemies. So long as Jin stood as a buffer between Song and the Mongols, it would be a happy situation for the Song Chinese. They would likely wait for the Jin to become exhausted and try to retake north China themselves.

I think had matchlock muskets and other firearms matured earlier, it is entirely possible for Song China to hold the line against the Mongols after the fall of Jin China, or even retake north China from the Mongols in due time. In OTL Song did hold out for 40 years using the gunpowder weapons they did possess.
 
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