There have been many "what if the Chinese discovered America" threads but I want to boil down the concept further. Ancient China had, in various dynasties from the Song onwards I reckon, the capacity to build huge navies and ships carrying a thousand men or something like that. We always talk about Ming treasure fleets discovering the Americas, but I'm sure they could have gone somewhere else as well.
What would be some possible scenarios for China to lose a fleet or two of several thousands of Chinese sailors and soldiers? I was considering perhaps in the case of the fall of the Southern Song, remnants under
Zhang Shijie might flee outside of China. Maybe they might have even brought the Song heir with them, and more of the court (instead of all going into the drink at the
Battle of Yamen). Perhaps the heirs of Koxinga don't simply let the Qing take over Taiwan, but instead sail southwards to the Philippines, or north to the Ryukyus, or wherever. Finally, I get the idea that China was big enough for it to lose a few fleets in a semi-mythical manner- say we have a crazy admiral go off on an exploration with several ships and are never seen again. Or because they left the court in disgrace. Or because they did so on because of political intrigue. And so on.
That said, afterwards, where could those fleets possibly end up at, logistically speaking? Luzon? Japan? The East Indies? Australia?
And finally, could the presence of several thousand Chinese exiles make any difference to the place they end up at? Could they alter the local culture enough to create a hybrid Han civilization that ends up rediscovered hundreds of years later? I mean, that's kind of what happened in Taiwan with the Ming loyalists anyway. But what about someplace that's not immediately next to China?