Chinese Exploration of North America

So I've got a timeline where the Mongols never conquer Jin and Song. Song continues on and finds the continued presence of Jin to its north unacceptable. It doesn't have the resources to overcome Jin in the foreseeable future and in its desperation to be rid of Jin decides to send out expeditions looking for new resources and allies to tip the balance in their favor. They send exploration fleets east and west.

I'm wondering whether in such a situation whether the eastern Chinese exploration fleet might get as far as Peru. I've heard in another forum that it's a long way to even get to North America so you might just get exiles and pirates going that far. Would the "find ways to overcome Jin" be enough motivation to get that far? If they could get as far as the Aztecs in Central America they'd probably be encouraged to continue southward to Peru.

The Native American Indians knew about the gold on the Klondike and didn't consider it valuable. If the Chinese explorers figure out they can obtain large amounts of Gold for trivial cost would this be enough of a motivation to get private traders travelling out here? Anyone travelling out here might be able to become quite wealthy back in China.

There were quite a few agricultural civilizations west of the Rocky Mountains, in the Great Plains and in the Mississippi Basin. Would it be likely that China would try to explore eastward, inland to find those on the Mississippi Basin? Maybe they'd find gold here and trade for it with the locals too. Those agricultural civilizations could initially be introduced to rice and a profit made selling it to them. Later when potatoes are found in Peru those could be introduced across North America. What do the rest of you guys think of the distance? Might it be too far for private traders to travel with this motivation?
 
Chinese going to inland north America through to Rocky Mountains is ASB. Japanese ships however did land in the PNW by accident and as we see in pre-european contact with metallurgy there may have been a very few instances of Japanese surviving and bringing a cultural revolution in potlatch but wondering the Pacific across the Pacific on purpose seems rather foolish and financially flippant.

Their reason for going to Africa was a mission of sort to show technological and mercantile power but it was known. Unless they go to a Pacific islander in near Oceania and leapfrog island to island (with little market tbh) until they hit say Easter Island with word of a huge landmass then you'll be heading to a China STRONK wank which in my mind is already happening island hoping past Tahiti.
 
Early contact with sweet potato, the demographic boon of it in a early intro to mainland China might wet interests but it's rather a wild goose chase
 
Thanks for the quick response.

Okay, could we go the other way through Africa? We could have an expanded version of Zheng He's voyages (but more than a century early). Plenty of interesting civilizations to encounter to keep the explorers interested. A fleet exploring the west coast of Africa goes off course and encounters South America. They find the Aztecs, keeping interest high. Encouraged one fleet goes north and finds and agricultural civilizations of the Mississippian Basin whilst another fleet encounters Peru by wrapping south around South America. That fleet continues northward, finding the west coast Aztec Civilization. Everything looks interesting so far so the fleet on the west coast continues northward and eventually loses interest. They find the various civilizations west of the Rocky Mountains in North America but these aren't terribly advanced. They offload some potatoes here in trade and go back home.

On their way home the Chinese explorers let the civilizations they pass copy their maps. South American civilizations explore northward up the coast of North America and begin trading. This leads to potatoes entering the North American diet.

Actually what I'm going for in this timeline is attempting to let technology to spread as fast as possible across the world and also to get the world population as high as possible. The goal is to make it so no one can clearly dominate the world. The Chinese trading fleets just seem to be the most plausible way of doing this I can figure out so far. Interested in any suggestions you may have.
 
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Thanks for the quick response.

Okay, could we go the other way through Africa? We could have an expanded version of Zheng He's voyages (but more than a century early). Plenty of interesting civilizations to encounter to keep the explorers interested. A fleet exploring the west coast of Africa goes off course and encounters South America. They find the Aztecs, keeping interest high. Encouraged one fleet goes north and finds and agricultural civilizations of the Mississippian Basin whilst another fleet encounters Peru by wrapping south around South America. That fleet continues northward, finding the west coast Aztec Civilization. Everything looks interesting so far so the fleet on the west coast continues northward and eventually loses interest. They find the various civilizations west of the Rocky Mountains in North America but these aren't terribly advanced. They offload some potatoes here in trade and go back home.

On their way home the Chinese explorers let the civilizations they pass copy their maps. South American civilizations explore northward up the coast of North America and begin trading. This leads to potatoes entering the North American diet.

Actually what I'm going for in this timeline is attempting to let technology to spread as fast as possible across the world and also to get the world population as high as possible. The goal is to make it so no one can clearly dominate the world. The Chinese trading fleets just seem to be the most plausible way of doing this I can figure out so far. Interested in any suggestions you may have.
They could possibly hit the North Equatorial current after getting rice in the Senegambia but they would learn in time of Arab and Berber powers and eventually Europeans lie to the north.

If the reached Madagascar they'd likely would have been in contact with Austronesians aware of routes West of Cape of Good Hope but would see nothing but deserts for a significant stretch of time.

This is all ASB to me however.

what about Corn/Maize?

Corn is helpful, however corn was not adopted by Polynesians and never reached Micronesia or Near Oceania.
 
Which part of the journey seems to be ASB? Is going east more ASB than going west to the Americas?

The fleets would be looking for something new, something useful against Jin so maybe in that situation uncharted waters would be more attractive? They would already know that what was within their known would mostly likely not be enough to help against Jin. At that point China had a pretty good knowledge of what was along the westward coast to East Africa so you would be able to leave known waters faster by following the coastline north from China. Perhaps the eastern fleet might not just travel across the Pacific Ocean but hug the coastline north until they got to the Aleutian Islands (deviating eastward temporarily to avoid Jin) then follow them east to North America. At that point they could follow the coast southward. If we set up the prospect of a reward and prestige for finding anything of use against Jin as well as competition between the east and west fleets could that make either of them getting to the potatoes in Peru more plausible?

Perhaps after the fleet passes through the area they could share their maps and knowledge with the potato growing civilizations who would become aware of the civilizations west of the Rocky Mountains? They could start to trade with the civilizations there and spread potatoes to them even if the eastern fleet abandons the area. Perhaps the eastern fleet stays in contact with North America just long enough to get the civilizations there started on agriculture and the North American Civilizations could then start exploration and trade routes to Peru on their own? If private Chinese fleets would not want to travel to North America perhaps the North Americans would then form their own fleets and travel to Asia?

In this setting both Jin and Song have received intelligence that the Mongols have been defeated by nations to the west and launch separate campaigns to crush the Mongols. Perhaps if the soldiers from these campaigns bring back large amounts of gold and western artifacts from the Mongols it might pique Song's interest? The gold might give the impression that these civilizations are quite rich and possibly quite advanced. Could these voyages might be sent out with the intention of finding these civilizations to the west? If these civilizations defeated the nomadic peoples the the north (a problem to China for more than a thousand years) then they very well might be of assistance against Jin.

The fleet would see desert after rounding the southern tip of Africa but as they sailed north they would know for certain that these western civilizations were still out there somewhere. With all the ocean to their west at that point they could take an educated guess that they were sailing directly towards their goal. They might reach Europe, find out that they could not help against Jin and from there plan their next move.

Would it be more plausible for them to go east across the Atlantic (following the current) to find the Americas or keep going north, finding the Americas by going through Scandinavia, Iceland and Greenland? Is this still in ASB territory?

Would there be any more plausible way to connect the Americas to global trade and expose them to outside tech without having the Native American Indians conquered by Europe?
 
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The problem with Chinese exploration TLs is that pre-modern China really really doesn't care.

Think of it from their perspective.

You have the Middle Kingdom (that already should tell you loads about their perceived place in the world); center of all knowledge and civilization for thousands of years, catapulting in the arts and technology before people even thought of it. Nobody comes close. There are places like Silla, Goryeo and Japan, but these countries are evidently more lacking in areas than the Middle Kingdom, the central empire of the world, or so it should be. The emperor, after all, has the Mandate of Heaven.

Outside of the Middle Kingdom are barbarians. Simply barbarians. There are some that have a few elements of civilization but they're still barbarians. In fact, it seems to them, the further you draw away from China, the further you draw away from civilization. If they were to make a foolhardy journey east in ships totally unsuited for oceanic travel, all they would find would be 'barbarians'. Indeed the lack of Chinese-styled civilization would further their supposition of the world. If something was to be found, it would be found in China or at least somewhere very near. No help could be found from 'barbarians', of course. The only thing they really wanted more of was gold and silver in the later dynasties; but they were perfectly content to let Europeans trade it to them for silks and spices.

Even the furthest state-backed journey conducted by China, the voyages of Zheng He, were more akin to Roosevelt's Great White Fleet than Captain Kirks' five-year mission; it was really just to profess the power and sovereignty of China, collect tribute and maybe some neat toys and treasures, like a giraffe. After that, the Ming decided the voyages were frivolous and trashed their ships. This overinflated view of China and its place in the world contributed greatly to its downfall in the Great Divergence.

They're just not really a very exploration-oriented culture. China doesn't come to you; you come to China.

An unconquered Song is a pretty good start; they got extremely isolationist after the Yuan dynasty so maybe you might be able to reap the benefits of a continued Song innovative culture. It might still be hard to get them interested in exploration. Either way, this method of establishing trade with America won't work: once they see there is nothing 'of use', they leave and don't come back. Getting China to realistically discover America and similar areas is a difficult prospect, and I'm not sure if there's been a TL that does this in a way that makes sense. Best of luck to you if you find a way, though.
 
If they took the North Pacific route, island-hopping along the Aleutian Islands, they would be forced to island-hop all the way to Southern California before they found easy access to the interior of North America. Along the way, they could finance their expedition by sending dried fish, seal skins and walrus ivory back to the Middle Kingdom.
There are few rivers or ports along North America's Pacific Coast. For example, Canada only has 3.5 ports on its Pacific Coast.
Fortunately, the Fraser River Delta, Puget Sound, the Willamette Valley, San Francisco Bay have plenty of tidewater marshes that are great for rice-farming.
West Coast natives also traded frequently with inland tribes, so Chinese settlers could soon feed themselves and trade with inland tribes for jade, etc.
Trade across such a wide ocean can only be profitable with high density cargo like jade or ivory or precious metals.
 
@Thesaurus Rex, interesting point. Instead of having contact being made via explorers, could it be due to refugees instead. All dynasties end eventually. In my current draft the Song is followed by a government called the Chau Dynasty. I could have them blame the Song for weakening China and allowing northern China to fall to the Jurchens. The Chau could attempt to arrest or kill those associated with high ranking Song officials. The Chau could be attempting to secure declarations of allegiance from nations in Asia, the Middle East and West Africa. Those hunted by Chau could be attempting to flee out of the known world in order to keep themselves and their families beyond the reach of the new government for as long as possible. Nations may be unwilling to permanently take in refugees for fear to angering the Chau. How long would the Song be likely to last before they collapsed?

Another idea I'm thinking about is having the refugees be from a collapsing Jin Dynasty. I can imagine the Chinese would be quite unfriendly with those deemed to be collaborators with the Jurchens. How long do you think it would take for Jin to collapse if the peoples of Central Asia are no longer a threat?

If any of these new scenarios sounds more plausible then the new colonies might be more inclined to explore their surrounding environment. Maybe seeing the impending fall of their nation they loaded up boats with precious metals and ran. Cut off from their homeland they would need to trade whatever valuables they brought for needed materials and would be searching for somewhere suitable to live. The Chinese colonies would merely be a tiny minority living as guests on land ruled by the Native Americans. Since OTL the Chinese have had a slow uptake of potatoes what cultural impact they had would be diminished by the population explosion of the populations surrounding their communities.

We could have cultures from North and South America send fleets to find China to open up a trade route. Would this situation result in at least part of the fleet reaching Peru? Perhaps the fleet sets up their homes further north but an exploration fleet (some of the ships they arrived in looking for allies and resources) goes further south? Are the folks fleeing westward (deviating eastward temporarily around the Song/Chau coastine) likely to stop in West Africa or continue on to South America along the ocean currents. Would any of the refugees even go as far as the Americas?

@riggerrob that sounds like an excellent route. In the initial stages of change in North America many of the nations wouldn't be able to mass produce their own steel. Would steel make a good high density cargo?

@Obergruppenführer Smith that seems like something that might happen. If we go with the refugee route described above would Japan be strong enough that nobody would attempt to attack of colonize it? A unified China or the Song could certainly have a go at Japan but a Jin Dynasty on its last legs might be significantly weaker. Would the extremely close proximity to China be enough to eliminate it as a possible new home?
 
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Why would refugees cross an unknown and not really friendly ocean when there are way closer and safer destinations like Indochina, Japan and even Taiwan?

This "Chau" wouldn't be able to do anything funny for a while, dynastic change is a messy affair, there will be Song loyalists fighting to the bitter end and the Jurchens will probably start a new offensive.
 
Okay then. How about another possibility?

We don't go with Dynasty collapse of Jin or Song as the cause of the fleets discovering America. The Chinese would not even be exploring. As Thesaurus Rex said before Zheng He's voyages were more like the Great White Fleet. What if the motivation for sending ships beyond known waters wasn't making contact with new countries but an exercise in demonstrating Chinese superiority and stroking their own ego? The goal would never be to explore but simply to circumnavigate the world? The Song think they're the best at everything. They have simply picked a feat that they think is incredibly notable and as far as they know is unprecedented. It would be a demonstration of how superior they are to others and would allow the scientific community in China to verify calculations made prior regarding the size of the globe.

Prior to the attempt there could be more than one smaller voyage gradually mapping out a route around the world and determining possible resupply points. Wouldn't want the shame of losing your circumnavigation fleet into unknown waters. Since the whole world hasn't been explored yet the scientific community would point out there could be a "Wall Continent" that makes it impossible to circumnavigate the world. China would look pretty stupid if they sent out a fleet with great fanfare only to run into a dead end, thus the smaller fleets would be sent out to make sure it could be done before making any big announcements.

This might seem to be a possibility when they run into the Americas. They would split their fleet into two, one to go north and one to the south to find a way around the Americas. The northern fleet could arrive at the North West passage during northern winter and run into a frozen impassable area, something that would seem ominous for their mission. They would wait until northern summer to see if the path becomes passable. The southern fleet could round South America and complete their voyage.

Each of these voyages would result in tech and the resulting maps being spread around the world. The official attempt would circumnavigate the world and from then on most naval activity simply stops and China goes back to its original sphere of influence. The other nations simply develop on their own with what they've learnt and received as the fleets passed through. The South American and Central American civilizations now knowing about civilizations further north begins sending trading ships to the Pacific North West. The civilizations of West Africa, now with comprehensive knowledge of a good chunk of the world, trade with East Africa and the West Coast of North and South America.
 
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First things first -- in order to get China to North America, they need to have ships worthy of crossing the Pacific. The Yellow, South and East China Sea and nearby waters are relatively protected from the wild Pacific and that's what the junks are designed for. You need a tradition of open-ocean seafaring, probably starting from chasing open ocean fish like tuna. The junks are already sort of capable and blue-water junks would eventually be common in the 19th century, but you've gotta push for an earlier development.

Also, the only viable routes for Chinese to get to the Americas are by traveling up the Pacific coast or making a stop at Hawaii. Both ways are fraught with their own dangers. Hawaii is technically a shorter route to the Americas proper, but involves a long sail into the unknown. The Aleutian Islands require less ocean-crossing, but you'd best go there in the summer and aside from furs, the lands going eastward will appear very unappealing. And both are long, long ways; longer than the longest distance from Europe to the Americas.
@Thesaurus Rex, interesting point. Instead of having contact being made via explorers, could it be due to refugees instead. All dynasties end eventually. In my current draft the Song is followed by a government called the Chau Dynasty. I could have them blame the Song for weakening China and allowing northern China to fall to the Jurchens. The Chau could attempt to arrest or kill those associated with high ranking Song officials. The Chau could be attempting to secure declarations of allegiance from nations in Asia, the Middle East and West Africa. Those hunted by Chau could be attempting to flee out of the known world in order to keep themselves and their families beyond the reach of the new government for as long as possible. Nations may be unwilling to permanently take in refugees for fear to angering the Chau. How long would the Song be likely to last before they collapsed?
Almost possible...refugees typically don't go into the great unknown, so it would be preferable if they already knew where they were going. If ships can get blown off to the PNW or Hawaii and safely return with knowledge of their existence, the higher classes may have a somewhat better probability of voyaging to those places.
We could have cultures from North and South America send fleets to find China to open up a trade route. Would this situation result in at least part of the fleet reaching Peru? Perhaps the fleet sets up their homes further north but an exploration fleet (some of the ships they arrived in looking for allies and resources) goes further south? Are the folks fleeing westward (deviating eastward temporarily around the Song/Chau coastine) likely to stop in West Africa or continue on to South America along the ocean currents. Would any of the refugees even go as far as the Americas?
Funny enough, East Africa is a rather likely candidate for a Chinese exile state; it was a known location to China and a trade network was regularly maintained with Chinese products showing up on the Swahili coast (and from there ending up all over Africa).

As for the Americas it would be more likely if the Chinese exclave built up enough to have a shipping tradition of their own that eventually reached South America, and better ship technology spread there. South American balsa rafts could travel fast and reasonably far, but had a time limit before they got waterlogged. Going to China in them is definitely a no go.

If they've already made it to West Africa, why go further? Especially if you don't know what's beyond.
Okay then. How about another possibility?

We don't go with Dynasty collapse of Jin or Song as the cause of the fleets discovering America. The Chinese would not even be exploring. As Thesaurus Rex said before Zheng He's voyages were more like the Great White Fleet. What if the motivation for sending ships beyond known waters wasn't making contact with new countries but an exercise in demonstrating Chinese superiority and stroking their own ego? The goal would never be to explore but simply to circumnavigate the world? The Song think they're the best at everything. They have simply picked a feat that they think is incredibly notable and as far as they know is unprecedented. It would be a demonstration of how superior they are to others and would allow the scientific community in China to verify calculations made prior regarding the size of the globe.

Prior to the attempt there could be more than one smaller voyage gradually mapping out a route around the world and determining possible resupply points. Wouldn't want the shame of losing your circumnavigation fleet into unknown waters. Each of these voyages would result in tech and the resulting maps being spread around the world. The official attempt would circumnavigate the world and from then on most naval activity simply stops and China goes back to its original sphere of influence. The other nations simply develop on their own with what they've learnt and received as the fleets passed through. The South American and Central American civilizations now knowing about civilizations further north begins sending trading ships to the Pacific North West. The civilizations of West Africa, now with comprehensive knowledge of a good chunk of the world, trade with East Africa and the West Coast of North and South America.
You're making minor shifts in culture. This will allow you to do many things in an alternate history TL and is a great start. The Song already were great producers of science and technology, but this goes a bit further. Note that even Zheng He's voyages, while bringing back lots of neat treasures, were seen as a frivolous expenditure. More emphasis and prestige will have to be placed on purely exploring and discovering as part of the quest for knowledge.

The best way to start this would be through challenge, as the sovereignty of the dynasty feels shaky. There could be nearby empires that compete for its influence, or a new dynasty that feels the need to prove itself. Your Chau (Chao?) dynasty might actually be up to this task. It may also need a Eurasia that is more interconnected, allowing world maps from every region to complete a better idea of the Old World. Knowledge, trades and technology flowing around will not only provide the Chau with sufficient seafaring tech but may cause them to question China's place in the world (and their legitimacy as a dynasty with a true Mandate of Heaven). Questions might arise of ways to prove the sovereignty of Chau. A treasure voyage like the one Zheng He took OTL may be proposed, but someone may bring up the fact that not only are there numerous poorly or unexplored regions of the earth, but that the planet itself has not yet been circumnavigated. Whether or not the rest of the world considers this a big deal may be irrelevant; what matters is that your culture-shifted China has begun to place emphasis on being the intellectual as well as metaphysical center of the world. When America is discovered, some scholars might compare it to the legend of Fusang and proudly proclaim a mythical land has been 're'discovered.

Scout fleets with enough trade goods to sustain themselves (as well as hunters, fishermen etc) like you proposed could work to scout out terrain for the initial circumnavigation, which may gain more importance than the planned 'treasure fleet' as more of the Americas are discovered and reported back. By the time they discover Mesoamerica and especially South America, attention might shift away from circumnavigation and towards trading with them for gold and silver, which would create a very lucrative trade network if one existed.

Along the exploration of the Pacific coast it will be noted how none of the cultures have gunpowder, steel or horses (this may be different if it ties into your high-population TL), but rich in some other things. This may pique the interest of some would-be conquerers, and may definitely be used to China's advantage in setting up trade colonies that would be necessary to maintain the networks. American precious metals will greatly benefit China proper and there would be a demand for Chinese silk, gunpowder and other weapons technology, and domestic animals (the last of which may have to wait until the trade colonies are set up).

Though China can theoretically conquer some parts of the Americas in its early stage of exploration, military influence would be minimal as well. As such your refugee idea could also work here once the trade network is set up and people can migrate to the river valleys of the Northwest Coast.
 
@Thesaurus Rex. This timeline is intended to be the high population timeline. I was hopefully going to use some form of contact with the Chinese to jump start development around the world, after which people could locally maintain their own stretch of the trade route. It would certainly be a way to spread potatoes and tech around the world fast.

How much faster than OTL would we be able to have China develop suitable blue water ships under a continuing Song and later Chau Dynasty? Could they perhaps be developed specifically for the circumnavigation attempt? You have a good point, going east initially would be very unappealing. If we're going with the circumnavigation motivation then might we see fleets going both east and west? Those going east wouldn't be there for the cultures. Sending fleets both ways to prepare both ends of the route around the earth simply allows for faster mapping out and preparation of the final expedition. After the Mesoamerican civilizations are found they would re route east would simply be a shorter route to reach Mesoamerica. Maybe if the route east from China to Central America is shorter the civilizations west of the Rocky Mountains could simply become rest stops on the way to Central America.

I only need to have Chinese contact with each area last long enough to kick start exploration from local civilizations. Using Chinese naval tech and tool making each area then can start and maintain their own trade network in their local area with each network overlapping. Each individual network then becomes a link in a massive chain binding the entire world together as a single global community. How long does contact need to last with China before an area begins to produce its own exploration and trading fleets (thus creating a link in the chain)?

If we remove the Mongols as a factor, how long would the Jin Dynasty be likely to have lasted? How about Song? Which one of these dynasties collapses first and when would have a huge impact on how the timeline turns out. I like the idea of refugees going to East Africa. Maybe these new communities, cut off from China would begin to develop a naval tradition in order to more effectively build a new home and earn a living for themselves. Their influence could give a little boost to global trade. How long might it take to go from Chinese refugees setting up a new home to them starting to explore and reaching the Americas?

If the Mongols have minimal lasting impact on the world, might we see a Song nearing the end of its time to losing influence in the region and the nations on the Indian Subcontinent, Dali, Tibet, Siam starting to take what were once its allies? Perhaps if new or recent technologies (such as the gun) play a significant part in the fall of Jin and the reunification of China then scientific societies could gain influence in the government. This could result in people who would be inclined to explore simply as part of the quest for knowledge being more likely to enter into positions of power. Combined with the decline in influence could this be enough to push China to exploration? With this situation what is the earliest that North America could be covered in agricultural nations?

Once trade with Central America starts would it be plausible for Chinese traders to settle at the Central American end of the trade route? Could we have communities based there sending ships to places across the region? Given that ships are already being drawn to the civilizations of Central America would ships who've traveled from China also visit the civilizations on the North American coastline? Although the North Americans might not be able to draw traders on their own the ships have already made the journey most of the way there by visiting the Central Americans. Would the trade routes from China to Central America be likely to run only west, east or a combination of both?
 
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Without the Mongols and with the above world situation could we see the Jin Dynasty gone by the mid 1300's? The trade would make Song quite a bit more powerful, the Song could use their naval superiority to blockade the Jin ports and use their wealth from trade to gain influence over what were once the Mongol hordes. This would result in Jin being surrounded on all sides. Perhaps the accelerated tech growth from the globalization and population growth could result in better weapons technology? Something such as better gun and cannon technology that could counteract the Jin's cavalry advantage?

In the above situation would it be plausible that we could see Jin being isolated and left behind as the rest of the world surges forwards, resulting in them being overwhelmed? Would there be any other way to get rid of Jin? Would it be more plausible that Jin survives much longer or even into the modern day?
 
I find it very likely that both Jin and Song would collapse during the Crisis of the Fourteenth Century (Black Death + bad climate + civil war, which in Europe is called the Crisis of the Late Middle Ages), which in OTL China killed a good third to half of the population.
 
@Intransigent Southerner good points. There's quite a few factors that contributed to the Crisis of the Fourteenth Century. This timeline doesn't have the Black Death but without the Mongol conquests of China the population would be much higher and more likely to create other plagues. Food shortages might also occur from the increased population. Would the bad climate in Europe during this crisis likely affect Asia to the same extent? Would Song or Jin be likely to have a civil war during this period? Would the damage from continual warfare between the two be able to cause sufficient damage to trigger a collapse?

I think the loss of life during this period was due to mainly mismanagement of China by the Mongols. They didn't properly maintain the irrigation projects resulting in flooding, had institutionalized racism towards the Chinese and generally had awful management of the economy. Would Song and Jin collapse at roughly the same time? Might you not see one nation occupying the other for any significant period of time as they are both incapacitated?

On another note at what time did horses start to decline in importance as a front line force? Jin had an advantage in cavalry but was ruled by an ethnic minority. It seems that while the soldiers in a cavalry unit need special training the gun allows soldiers to be more effective with less training and gives power to the majority. At what point would the presence of guns in Song and among the Han majority of Jin override the Jin's superior cavalry force?

Would we see Song acknowledging their insufficiency in the cavalry department and importing better horses and expertise from overseas (this timeline has a global trade network by the 1300's)? Would this be enough to turn the tide of the Song-Jin conflict and how long would this take? If Song collapses before Jin, would the people in former Song be able to prevent themselves from being completely occupied by Jin? How much territory would they lose and would they be able to recover from such a blow?
 
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Would the bad climate in Europe during this crisis likely affect Asia to the same extent?
It did IOTL. There was also a flood of the Yellow River in 1351 which probably can't be handwaved away with butterflies.

I think the loss of life during this period was due to mainly mismanagement of China by the Mongols.
They were a big part, but you see the 14th-century crisis pretty much everywhere--in China, in Europe, in India (collapse of the Delhi sultanate), in the Middle East (fall of the Ilkhanate and Timur killing everyone), in Southeast Asia (Dai Viet, Khmer empire, Pagan all collapsed), and so on. I think there was a big climatic component to the chaos that's bound to happen.

On another note at what time did horses start to decline in importance as a front line force?
In China? Even in the 17th century the horse was sometimes enough to defeat a gunpowder army.

If Song collapses before Jin, would the people in former Song be able to prevent themselves from being completely occupied by Jin?
Probably, yes.

If the Jin-Song division continues, I think it's actually plausible for China to be permanently split in half, with the North and South Chinese increasingly seeing themselves as belonging to different nations. As early as 1210, the Han Chinese subjects of the Jin actively resisted a Song invasion to reconquer the north (this was a big shock to Song).
 
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