Chinese Civil War without Japan

Would the Chinese Civil War in the 1900's last longer or shorter if the Japanese did not get involved? How long would it likely last?
 
Alright then,

If we have an alternate Chinese Civil War where it was roughly two equally powered factions how long might such a conflict last, assuming no external powers intervene to any significant extent?
 
Alright then,

If we have an alternate Chinese Civil War where it was roughly two equally powered factions how long might such a conflict last, assuming no external powers intervene to any significant extent?

The thing is that without Japanese intervention sapping the strength of the NRA, the Chinese Civil War would not have been a conflict between two equally powered factions. Without the Japanese threat there would have been no Xian Incident and Chiang Kai Shek would have been free to finally crush the CCP. Perhaps you are imagining a situation like the Civil War from 1945-1949 but that would not have been possible without the Japanese weakening the KMT and the Soviet invasion of Manchuria bolstering the CCP.
 
Would the Chinese Civil War in the 1900's last longer or shorter if the Japanese did not get involved? How long would it likely last?

Oh the Communists would be crushed easily. Chaing Kai Shek was in a terrible position in the first world war. 97% of Chinese Casualties where Republican, not Communist forces. Shiang Kai Shek couldn't trust the Chinese during the Second united front because if he pulled all his troops to fight Japan, the communists could easily grab swaths of land. Remember, China was still pretty dirt poor, and ravaging Japanese across China didn't help either. I'd be over in the 40s instead of the 50s.
 
@MildSeven, @Incanian, I should probably have explained what's happening in a bit more detail. The tech level is roughly 1940's and the two factions are completely different. The leadership on both sides used to be two cliques within the pre-civil war government with ministers and generals split roughly 50/50. One clique, nicknamed the conservatives has popular support. There's no significant communist faction. During this war no external nations contribute to the conflict.
 
@MildSeven, @Incanian, I should probably have explained what's happening in a bit more detail. The tech level is roughly 1940's and the two factions are completely different. The leadership on both sides used to be two cliques within the pre-civil war government with ministers and generals split roughly 50/50. One clique, nicknamed the conservatives has popular support. There's no significant communist faction. During this war no external nations contribute to the conflict.
Are you describing some sort of civil war within KMT itself?Sounds like something from a far more successful Wang Jingwei.
 
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Yep, its the KMT in a China which has avoided having any significant Communist challengers and has now turned on itself.
 
Yep, its the KMT in a China which has avoided having any significant Communist challengers and has now turned on itself.
Then that totally depends on external factors, i.e. who get what kind of support. A Chiang Kai Shek vs Wang Jingwei war would be interesting. Despite your caveat of the Conservatives having more support, Wang's left wing policies might be more palatable to the masses and Chiang will not necessarily get American support without the Japanese threat. I suppose it also depends on who controls what area. If the Japanese occupation of Manchuria is butterflied away, the faction that controls it will have more natural resources (though I'm not too sure about industry, since it was the Japanese who built it up). Bear in mind that the 1928 Northern Expedition was only the second time in history that China was conquered/unified by a power from the South.
 
CCP would’ve been driven out of China proper, but it probably would not have been destroyed as they would withdraw to border regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang where the Soviets wielded influence. IOTL the CCP took pains to avoid this for fear of becoming Soviet puppets.

At some point the Soviets would clash with Japan in Machuria and the CCP would be back in business. The main difference in TTL is KMT is not weakened by war with Japan and perhaps manages to contain the Communists in Manchuria. The final clash might happen in the 50s instead of the late 40s.
 
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@MildSeven,The faction referred to as the conservatives are those adhering to Confucian principles and are left leaning. They're strongly for supporting the poor and working class. The conservatives lean towards regulation of corporations and increased taxation of the rich. They're not a western society's definition of conservative but got their name from an alternate way of thinking and value system. Where the conservatives hold sway there's action to support the common folk against abuse by their landlords and some redistribution of wealth to the poor. By that definition you are correct, the left leaning faction is more palatable to the masses. This is partially China ITTL preferring to use its own terminology which can be rather confusing to outsiders.

I was thinking that the presence of such a faction with enough power could prevent the Communists from gaining a solid foothold in China. The poor who feel oppressed and want change might just side with the conservatives instead. The government has started a propaganda campaign branding Communism as a tool of the Russians to control them. The conservatives control the North including Manchuria as far south as Kaifeng as well as most of the mountainous west (including Sichuan). There's signs of growing conservative support among the poor rural population in the south where the "reformist" ministers and generals are based. Efforts to use propaganda to turn them to the reformist cause have met with limited success.

@Richard V, sounds like the KMT as a whole is in a stronger position despite the clash being shifted slightly into the future. So how does the struggle between the two KMT factions turn out? Do they put off their conflict until the communists are dealt with or do they just attack each other once the communists have been contained?
 
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@Richard V, sounds like the KMT as a whole is in a stronger position despite the clash being shifted slightly into the future. So how does the struggle between the two KMT factions turn out? Do they put off their conflict until the communists are dealt with or do they just attack each other once the communists have been contained?

I’m not familiar enough with KMT factionalism to say with any confidence. But it seems to me without Japan invading in 1937 and Chiang successfully chasing CCP out of China proper, he would be in a pretty strong position domestically.
 
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