Is it possible for China to have their “Operation Uranus” and “Operation Bargration” in World War 2 where China is on the offensive, pushing the Japanese back?
Chinese “Operation Uranus and Bagration“ in World War 2
- Thread starter Admiral Bloonbeard
- Start date
What if the Burma Road remains open? AFAIK the Chinese always had numerical superiority, the big problem was the lack of good equipment and corruption. Keeping Burma from falling should solve at least one of these problems.
We should also forget the big factor in the room
Fucking stillwell
The guy hoarded all the weapons that were meant for china and supplied it only for the burmease south east asian campaign. Additiannlly the y force in india was kept primarly because stillwell wanted to put them there foruse later, even though chiang wanted to use them because he knew that operation ichigo was going to happen. The only way to get something like operation uranius is to get rid of stillwell
Chiang had an opprutunity in 1941 to 1942 but he chickend out because he was afraid of alienating the us. Instead in this hypothetical chiang decided to replace stillwell in 1942 and with it the us replace stillwell with someone thats more competent. Someone that would actually supply the chinese mainland forces.
Also note the airfield that were built in china, they were built there in exchange for anti tanks to be sent to chiangs force. Guess who stopped that transfer of weapons, it was stillwell.
So how about Stillwell doesn't go to China in the first place and something delays the Japanese advance in the rest of Asia significantly such as, say, MacArthur growing a brain and organizing a more competent defense of the Philippines.
By the time they finally get near Burma (say Malaysia and Thailand) it's too late because of the monsoon season and whatever additional troops the British have there. Thus, the road remains open and the Chinese army is much better supplied.
How about this for a scenario?
NAh MAN WE GOTTA THINK BIGGER
for one we also gotta make it so that chiangs gets his elite forces out of shanghai in time, the alliance between the communists and nationalists arent broken, the battle of wuhan is a way better victory, and that the german advisor alexander von falkenhausen decides to stay.
I think this might work
Yep - either Malaya goes better for the British and or Burma goes better - and the Supply line from Rangoon remains open into 42 and 43 allowing for a faster build up with fewer or none of the reverses suffered OTL.
If Stilwell isn't there to support the Burmese front and resources are instead sent to China, do we see a reverse scenario from otl where the Japanese fail to advance in China but succeed in driving into eastern India?
U-Go happened at the same time as Ichi-Go so you can either support one or the other, not both.
U-Go happened at the same time as Ichi-Go so you can either support one or the other, not both.
RousseauX
Donor
he's worse stillwell and his ego/incompetence is basically planet sized so maybe he actually gets kicked back to America but is then celebrated as great war hero whom the ungrateful chinese expelled
BobTheBarbarian
Banned
Not without massive increases in tank and mechanized forces. In 1945 the "Carbonado" plan was meant to retake Canton (Guangzhou), but this would hardly have been a 'Bagration:' the Japanese were by then already withdrawing toward the coast both to shorten their supply lines amid the US submarine blockade and as a precaution against an amphibious attack. Generally, the Chinese followed them at a distance.
In the winter of 1939/1940 the Chinese launched a large-scale counteroffensive along a large portion of the front, but they didn't have the strength to gain much ground on the Japanese nor inflict crippling losses. (Dorn, "The Sino-Japanese War" p. 320 estimated 50,000 Japanese and 150,000 Chinese casualties)
In general, the Nationalist Army was capable of at most crippling a few Japanese divisions under favorable circumstances, such as at Wanjialing during the Battle of Wuhan.
In the winter of 1939/1940 the Chinese launched a large-scale counteroffensive along a large portion of the front, but they didn't have the strength to gain much ground on the Japanese nor inflict crippling losses. (Dorn, "The Sino-Japanese War" p. 320 estimated 50,000 Japanese and 150,000 Chinese casualties)
In general, the Nationalist Army was capable of at most crippling a few Japanese divisions under favorable circumstances, such as at Wanjialing during the Battle of Wuhan.
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BlackDragon98
Banned
China's only hope was to entrap Japanese forces in an urban area and then destroy them in a Stalingradesque urban battle where the Japanese advantages of airpower, armor, and artillery could be mostly neutralized.
Otherwise, the odds would be heavily against China's favor.
Otherwise, the odds would be heavily against China's favor.
Well, everytime I want to post I find Bob here has done so in a better and more professional way that totally covers what I meant to say. Hats off to you.
Honestly, the best thing MacArther could have done was recognize the logic behind the Navy viewing the Phillipines as virtually indefensible. By the late 30's the Navies war plans for Japan revolved around losing Islands west of Hawaii before building up a naval campaign that steamrolls back thru the Pacific before isolating Japan.
This is pretty close to what happened historically.
The Phillipines were just to difficult to hold in the event of war with Japan. The best strategy their? Have enough defences to give the Japanese a bloody nose, and a much better withdrawal plan then was had historically. Japan couldn't win a long war with the US, and had to bet on the US launching a strike to relieve the Phillipines that the IJN could subsequently, hopefully, annihilate.
well to be fair its more complicated
I argue that stillwell was quite a fucking detirement in the south east asia campaign. he utterlly failed in the first battles and literally ran away and left his troops to die. Meanwhile, tthe british and chinese had to come in to save the chinese soldiers he abandoned.
Plus the guy fought ww2 like it was ww1, he fought it focusing only on infantry.
The thing is you can support both, its possible to support the nationalists in china while also supporting the burmese campaign. The reason why stillwell didnt do it was not because he was forced to choose one front over the other, the reason why he did it was officially because of "corruption" but unoffiically because he was a toxic asshole who hadextreme grudges. Even when operation ichi go happened (he famously refused to send any weapons and equipment to china) and his justification was let them stew. I honestly believe any other commander would have figured out a way to balance the resource needs.