China with no WWI?

What happens to China through the 1920's and 30's in a world where Europe never quite pulls the trigger on WWI? More of the same? Eventual partition between the great powers?
 
Well Germany is still in Shantung and is a regional player generally opposed to Japanese interests.

Of course there is no communism.

The European powers are going to keep Japan from just doing a take down 1937 style.

The European powers and America want to keep China weak but a peaceful open market. Colonizing and maintaining large garrisons would be expensive and they would have to keep real armies in the area to guard against Japan and Russia. So I don't see a partition.

Japan and Russia wouldn't mind taking chunks but are opposed by the others (except Germany might encourage Russia in the East to keep her busy there instead of Balkans/Turkey).

So really 1914 status quo. Weak Chinese governments of some sort.
 
There's a lot to suggest the Russians are getting ready for round two with Japan. By 114, Russian naval spending had surpassed Germany's and the railroad construction was going East as well as west.

Japan's diplomatic position may be much weaker- the Americans are beginning to realize their mistake in backing Japan

On the other hand, cooperation with Japan has enormous advantages. The two can basically cut everyone else out of China.

China is going to need a powerful friend to help them- and I can't think of anyone who would be available. The British can't antagonize Russia and Japan, the US doesn't have the will and Germany would bring the Russians on their heads
 

CaliGuy

Banned
and Germany would bring the Russians on their heads
What exactly does this mean?

What happens to China through the 1920's and 30's in a world where Europe never quite pulls the trigger on WWI? More of the same? Eventual partition between the great powers?
First of all, this crucial question should be asked: Without World War I, is a military intervention of several Great Powers in China in order to restore law and order possible? Basically, I am thinking of something similar to the Eight-Power Coalition which defeated the Boxer Rebellion in China back in 1900.
 
What exactly does this mean?

It means if the Germans try to arm the Chinese as a counter to the Russians, all the Germans will do is get the Russians to abandon the Far East and concentrate on Europe. In a Russia vx. Germany and China war, Russia would seek to destroy Germany first before turning on China

First of all, this crucial question should be asked: Without World War I, is a military intervention of several Great Powers in China in order to restore law and order possible? Basically, I am thinking of something similar to the Eight-Power Coalition which defeated the Boxer Rebellion in China back in 1900.

The size of the force would be too large. Probably only Russia and Japan would have the men and the will A long war by proxy is more likely where each power armed their favorite warlord
 
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