China wins the 1st Sino-Japanese War in 1895

LordKalvert

Banned
If the modernization ITTL is sufficient to beat Japan in 1895, it'd be stronger than OTL Japanese military, which beaten the Russian one.

Japan > Russia : OTL observation, not changed
China > Japan : TTL assumption, but opposite IOTL

By transitivity, China >> Russia.

Possibly, possibly not. Japan only becomes powerful after they spend the indemnity on their military. At the time, Russia is powerful enough to prevail during the Triple Intervention
 

LordKalvert

Banned
You mean their ground forces? The Bannermen that defended Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion were obliterated in the face of Russian advances. Does the Qing have ground forces that could possibly be a match against the Russians?

Well, that's a possibility but if China wins the war she wouldn't be broke. She'd also have a somewhat competent government. There's the possibility that they actually buy rifles, ammunition and artillery for their army. Just saying
 

raharris1973

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Obviously, this is great for China. The victory over Japan at least sets back Japanese threats for quite some time, and is likely to suspend the grabbing of new leased and treaty ports (Qingdao, Port Arthur, Fort Bayard, Weihaiwei) and head off the Boxer rebellion (which led to the Tientsin concessions, etc.).

I wonder what the European powers would make of China's victory. They would not find it surprising. Might Wilhelm make a big stink about the "Yellow Peril" posed by *China* as opposed to Japan. Would the Russians be as aggressive with railway diplomacy or gain any special influence in Korea in the decade 1904-1905? Prior to the 1890s, the Russians had always assumed the Chinese were more formidable than the Japanese, and had had enough respect for the difficulties of fighting in that region that they backed off their occupation of the Ili valley.

Might the Russians never see as much opportunity in the Far East with a relatively stable China holding its own against Japan. Possibly this means a more continued European focus, aborts OTL's Austro-Russian 1897 agreement to put the Balkans "on ice" and leads to a high risk of a Austro-Russian tensions over say, Macedonia, setting off a European coalition war around the turn of the 20th century?

If not, does Britain consider coming out of isolation, but thinks of China, rather than Japan, as its best potential ally in Asia in the early 29th century? A forward bulwark of India?

As for effects on Japan, I think initially this defeat will curb Japanese enthusiasm. In the worst case, the Japanese are shut out of Korea and forced to pay an indemnity to get Chinese raids to stop (and to ransom troops on the mainland? Maybe to this generation of Japanese, that is not so grossly dishonorable as WWII era Japanese would have thought for troops to have been captured ).

However, I don't see this single defeat as likely to result in a continuous downward spiral for Japan like what happened to China. I believe that shortly before the Sino-Japanese war started, extraterritoriality had been repealed in Japan and a timeline had been set for granting tariff autonomy. I don't think European powers valued Japan so much as to covet special leases or new treaty ports in the Japanese home islands. (might Russia want the northern Kuriles back to open up the sea of Okhotsk?) So, Japan is still likely to have continued political sovereignty like Siam, only with higher technology and economic growth, even if it experiences no territorial growth (at least not until China stumbles on a later occasion.)

Your thoughts on this?
 
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I agree with those who have said that the great change this victory would bring would be a lack of change - in so far as it would confirm Chinese and European assumptions about the balance of power in Asia.

The Japanese navy sunk, their coasts raided and their army in Korea interned is a fairly crushing victory - and a Chinese victory that will be evident to ordinary Japanese. I suspect this would have big effects on Japanese politics, either provoking Japan to more radical efforts to reform (possibly provoking a counter-revolution in turn) or provoking a conservative surge that slows Japanese modernization.

The big question with Chinese internal politics is does this victory mean that the Guangxu Emperor doesn't press his reform agenda so hard? No hundred days and no subsequent counter-revolution couldn't help but be a boon for China. It also might mean the Dowager Empress spends her last years being mostly retired, which might mean future history remembers her much more positively. Instead we might have a Guangxu Emperor who lives into his 60s (so dying in the early 1930s) and who presides over a slowly accelerating process of reform in Ming China.

fasquardon
 

raharris1973

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There would be significant knock-ons to the history of Asian martial arts and their popularization in the west, as a result of this scenario:

raharris1973: Wouldn't the Liuchiu islands be the most logical territorial concessions demanded by China, and possibly tsushima island to provide a buffer for Korea. After winning naval battles and land battles in Korea, what kind of land campaign do you envision the Chinese doing on Japanese territory?

LordKalvert: Some of the outlying islands for sure. The old kingdom of Okinawa for example wouldn't be too hard to detach from Japan.

A change in sovereignty in Okinawa will significantly change the life of the founder/popularizer of modern karate, Gichin Funakoshi:

http://www.gichinfunakoshi.com/gichin.htm

Okinawan Karate will likely not be transformed into Japanese Karate, and "Karate" will not be the premier catch-all name in the west for Asian striking (as opposed to grappling) martial arts.

Okinawan Karate will rather be an obscure provincial variety of Chinese boxing/wushu/kung fu, without adoption of the standardized Judo belt system and promotion by Japan's physical education authorities. In America, it may remain fairly obscure to non-Okinawans for as long as Kung Fu does (till the mid 1960s)

Judo will be the leading Asian martial art in the west for longer, and those interested in a wider repertoire of striking techniques will probably look into legacy jujutsu schools.

One would think that Korean taekwondo might fill the void, but actually, for as long as this scenario prevents Japanese domination of Korea, (and eventual Korean revival under a Republic) it butterflies away the development of modern taekwondo was we know it, which was promoted by a Korean education and sports authority that had been under Japanese tutelage for decades.

If anything, the Japanese term "Kempo" or "Kenpo" may become the generic term for punching/kicking focused Asian martial arts in the west instead of Karate (which in Okinawa may still be translated as "China hand" instead of "Empty hand").

By the end of the 20th century, I still expect a variety of wu she/kung fu styles and Korean and Okinawan fighting styles would be taught in the west. There's likely to be kung fu movies at some point, one way or the other.
 
There would be significant knock-ons to the history of Asian martial arts and their popularization in the west, as a result of this scenario

Good point. Also, cultural exchange between China and Japan had a big role in the transformation of the martial arts of both into sports for the common man. With a different relationship between China and Japan, that may happen very differently - if it still happens (I suspect it will). Also, Chinese martial arts experienced much of their modernization during the Republican period - with a different modernization process, there may not be anything a Westerner might recognize as "kung fu". It is an open question whether Chinese or Japanese martial arts reach the West first though - I think the PoD is too far back to say "Chinese martial arts are virtually unknown in the West before 1960" or "Japanese martial arts still become popular in the early decades of the 20th Century".

fasquardon
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Obviously, this is great for China. The victory over Japan at least sets back Japanese threats for quite some time, and is likely to suspend the grabbing of new leased and treaty ports (Qingdao, Port Arthur, Fort Bayard, Weihaiwei) and head off the Boxer rebellion (which led to the Tientsin concessions, etc.).

Yes, it would be great for China- the 200,000,000 taels she paid Japan set her back forever and that doesn't even get to the Boxer indemnity. So China isn't broke

Nor is she forced to give the economic concessions to the powers. The Manchus are seen as a viable government internally

I wonder what the European powers would make of China's victory. They would not find it surprising. Might Wilhelm make a big stink about the "Yellow Peril" posed by *China* as opposed to Japan. Would the Russians be as aggressive with railway diplomacy or gain any special influence in Korea in the decade 1904-1905? Prior to the 1890s, the Russians had always assumed the Chinese were more formidable than the Japanese, and had had enough respect for the difficulties of fighting in that region that they backed off their occupation of the Ili valley.

Might the Russians never see as much opportunity in the Far East with a relatively stable China holding its own against Japan. Possibly this means a more continued European focus, aborts OTL's Austro-Russian 1897 agreement to put the Balkans "on ice" and leads to a high risk of a Austro-Russian tensions over say, Macedonia, setting off a European coalition war around the turn of the 20th century?

They might see China as their more formidable foe. For the Russians, the Yellow Peril was very real and the thought of fighting at Kulokov in the backs of their minds

If not, does Britain consider coming out of isolation, but thinks of China, rather than Japan, as its best potential ally in Asia in the early 29th century? A forward bulwark of India?

Or does Britain join the rest of Europe in seeing a Yellow Peril. A developed China is a threat to everyone

As for effects on Japan, I think initially this defeat will curb Japanese enthusiasm. In the worst case, the Japanese are shut out of Korea and forced to pay an indemnity to get Chinese raids to stop (and to ransom troops on the mainland? Maybe to this generation of Japanese, that is not so grossly dishonorable as WWII era Japanese would have thought for troops to have been captured ).

Dishonorable or not, the Japanese may have to accept terms that basically eliminate them as a threat to China. It depends on a European power intervening against them. That would have to be Russia or Britain and I doubt if either would. Russia had a 4000 mile border with China and antagonizing a strong China is a little different than Japan who could be isolated pretty easily

However, I don't see this single defeat as likely to result in a continuous downward spiral for Japan like what happened to China. I believe that shortly before the Sino-Japanese war started, extraterritoriality had been repealed in Japan and a timeline had been set for granting tariff autonomy. I don't think European powers valued Japan so much as to covet special leases or new treaty ports in the Japanese home islands. (might Russia want the northern Kuriles back to open up the sea of Okhotsk?) So, Japan is still likely to have continued political sovereignty like Siam, only with higher technology and economic growth, even if it experiences no territorial growth (at least not until China stumbles on a later occasion.)

Your thoughts on this?

The Japanese political system was respected by the Western powers as providing a responsible framework so that business could operate. So they aren't likely to pursue a different course.

The question for Japan though- are the terms harsh enough that her emergence as a power is stopped. I think certainly unless she can form an alliance with Russia against China

The effects on Russia would be the most significant. First, she won't get a railroad concession through Manchuria, very unlikely that she would just seize Port Arthur However, I do see her focus remaining on the Far East but a lot more cautious
 

raharris1973

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Good point. Also, cultural exchange between China and Japan had a big role in the transformation of the martial arts of both into sports for the common man. With a different relationship between China and Japan, that may happen very differently - if it still happens (I suspect it will).

I suspect so as well

Also, Chinese martial arts experienced much of their modernization during the Republican period - with a different modernization process, there may not be anything a Westerner might recognize as "kung fu".

What were the main differences brought about by the Republican period? Remember also that Chinese martial arts development was not limited to the mainland but also occurred in Hong Kong and overseas Chinese communities in the United States and southeast Asia.


It is an open question whether Chinese or Japanese martial arts reach the West first though - I think the PoD is too far back to say "Chinese martial arts are virtually unknown in the West before 1960" or "Japanese martial arts still become popular in the early decades of the 20th Century".

This could conceivably butterfly things to shake up the order, but it would be a nonlinear butterfly effect.

However...

"Chinese martial arts are virtually unknown in the West before 1960" or "Japanese martial arts still become popular in the early decades of the 20th Century".

..is still a pretty linear and reasonable default extrapolation from things as they were in 1893 however. At least the part about popularization of Japanese martial arts.

Jigoro Kano had established the Judo system before 1894 and given multiple demonstrations in public including to ex-President Grant. Kano was already a well-connected educational official and its unlikely that defeat in war would derail his career and prevent him from adding Judo to the Japanese phys ed curriculum.

There were books in english on Judo as early as 1905.
 
That's interesting. From Russia's perspective: Russia was serious about the colonization of Manchuria, if we take as an analogue United States, Vladivostok was an analogue of San Francisco, and Dalniy was to be Russian Los Angeles.
Russia is likely to start a war with China. But the Chinese have been able to create an army and navy, the strength equal to Japanese? I doubt it - the state was too rotten.
As a result, Russia would have won, but it was next door to a hostile state and could not be at the beginning of the First World War to transfer troops from the Far East to the West.
 
That's interesting. From Russia's perspective: Russia was serious about the colonization of Manchuria, if we take as an analogue United States, Vladivostok was an analogue of San Francisco, and Dalniy was to be Russian Los Angeles.
Russia is likely to start a war with China. But the Chinese have been able to create an army and navy, the strength equal to Japanese? I doubt it - the state was too rotten.
As a result, Russia would have won, but it was next door to a hostile state and could not be at the beginning of the First World War to transfer troops from the Far East to the West.

If Qing won solely because of Japanese f-up or deus-ex-machina miracle, then sure. But outside of that, a Qing victory implies some sort of military modernization is in place.

And frankly, if TTL Qing, especially Cixi, was as corrupt as IOTL, then I can't even see a plausible way for the Qing navy to survive the IJN onslaught with Cixi's lackey/appeaser Prince Chun in charge of the admiralty, siphoning fund to her Summer Palace.
 
If Qing won solely because of Japanese f-up or deus-ex-machina miracle, then sure. But outside of that, a Qing victory implies some sort of military modernization is in place.

And frankly, if TTL Qing, especially Cixi, was as corrupt as IOTL, then I can't even see a plausible way for the Qing navy to survive the IJN onslaught with Cixi's lackey/appeaser Prince Chun in charge of the admiralty, siphoning fund to her Summer Palace.

And how you this option: Japan losing the war with China, but do not lose heart (industrial and cultural foundation has already been created). In this case, Japan reaches the level 1904 in 1914, and is fighting opposed to Russia on the side of the Central Powers.
It seems to me that the Japanese have a chance to "get off the train," concluded a separate peace with the Allies before to collapse Germany (not up to them).
 
Diverting from the general question, what if China had a stalemate with Japan?
i.e. Japan captured Taiwan with a token force, but their main fleet was destroyed by the Chinese; for the Chinese, they are too far from Taiwan and any further deployment can prove catastrophic.
 
And how you this option: Japan losing the war with China, but do not lose heart (industrial and cultural foundation has already been created). In this case, Japan reaches the level 1904 in 1914, and is fighting opposed to Russia on the side of the Central Powers.
It seems to me that the Japanese have a chance to "get off the train," concluded a separate peace with the Allies before to collapse Germany (not up to them).

If Qing won in 1895, and didn't lose anything to Russia before WWI, then there's nothing for the Japanese to desire in Russia to begin with.

Maybe, maybe for a foothold on the continent, but China could join the Allies any time to counter Japan, so it's a very risky move.
 
Diverting from the general question, what if China had a stalemate with Japan?
i.e. Japan captured Taiwan with a token force, but their main fleet was destroyed by the Chinese; for the Chinese, they are too far from Taiwan and any further deployment can prove catastrophic.

First, Taiwan has been fortified since Sino-French war, so it couldn't be taken by a "token" force, at least not easily. IOTL, even after it's ceded, took Japan 37,000 soldiers just to occupy it.

Second, Taiwanese back then were very hostile to the Japanese, tens of thousand Taiwanese joined guerrilla movements even after the government had abandoned them. If the Japanese fleet were destroyed and their soldiers were stranded, they're going to end up really, really bad.

Third, Taiwan was a hotbed of tropical disease. If their medication supply were cut, then what IOTL killed Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa and 4,641 others could wipe most of this token force out.
 
First, Taiwan has been fortified since Sino-French war, so it couldn't be taken by a "token" force, at least not easily. IOTL, even after it's ceded, took Japan 37,000 soldiers just to occupy it.

Second, Taiwanese back then were very hostile to the Japanese, tens of thousand Taiwanese joined guerrilla movements even after the government had abandoned them. If the Japanese fleet were destroyed and their soldiers were stranded, they're going to end up really, really bad.

Third, Taiwan was a hotbed of tropical disease. If their medication supply were cut, then what IOTL killed Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa and 4,641 others could wipe most of this token force out.

okay, hands up, I surrender while waving a white shirt. I didn't know how many were deployed OTL to Taiwan; hence my usage of the word 'Token'.
 
And how you this option: Japan losing the war with China, but do not lose heart (industrial and cultural foundation has already been created). In this case, Japan reaches the level 1904 in 1914, and is fighting opposed to Russia on the side of the Central Powers.
It seems to me that the Japanese have a chance to "get off the train," concluded a separate peace with the Allies before to collapse Germany (not up to them).

But the main threat to Japan is likely to be China still. Unless China is kicked out of Manchuria and Korea by the Russians in a Sino-Russian war.

Also, this is before all of the main events that solidified the entente-vrs-CP structure of WW1. We could see China on either side, Britain on either side, FRANCE on either side, America on either side, Italy on either side, the Turks on either side and Japan on either side (but probably not on the same side as China). And the only reason why Russia isn't on that list is because I know less about their pre-war politics and diplomacy.

Alot of possibilities for writing interesting TLs that's for sure.

fasquardon
 
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