China tries to spread Opium War to India

In 1860 - in the midst of the Second Opium War - a Russian diplomat suggested that the Chinese could launch a strike into India via Yunnan and Tibet while sending agents to incite rebellion in India, presumably having in mind the rising in 1857. This would force the British to halt their aggression towards China.

One Manchu general, Jalafuntai, expanded on this idea in a memorial. He claimed:
  • Russia can be convinced to invade India in conjunction with China.
  • France is a traditional enemy of England and can probably be convinced to halt her aggression towards China.
  • The USA can be convinced to attack southern India.
  • Nepal and Burma will help China attack Bengal in revenge for their defeats at the hands of the British.

This plan was disregarded - IMO correctly - as being unfeasible, but let's say the emperor is convinced and China actually tries to pull this off.

What is the most likely result?
 
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  • Russia simply can´t invade India as Central Asia is not yet completely subjugated.
  • Maybe but the invasion has to give result to begin with.
  • Lol no, impossible and nobody has to explain why.
  • Could work but I´m not sure Burma would be so willingly to help China over Britain.
 
I'm not exactly an expert on the period itself but I'm confused as to why Russia would have any interest in a Chinese victory and can't see any reason why the Russians would actually invade India. Bearing in mind that this was the time of the Amur annexation in which the Russians annexed a portion of Qing territory in Siberia between 1858 and 1860. It was also only 8 years before the Manza War so I imagine they didn't have the best relations at the time.

As for the feasibility of the plan, I don't see it succeeding as such in an invasion of India. I have no idea why or even how the USA could ever even think of invading Southern India, the logistics of trying to transport American soldiers to India and keeping them supplied in British territory while trying to fight the British army at it's height seem impossible. Even if the USA does manage to land soldiers in Southern India I don't see their army being much more than a pest. As for the Chinese I see their army taking some very heavy casualties to sheer attrition in Burma. Supplying an army of around 200,000 soldiers in a jungle is unlikely to work all that well.

As for the Russians, even if they did invade India in support of the Chinese, I see them having trouble pushing through Afghanistan and possibly being ground to a halt in the mountains. Maybe a rebellion could pose a suitable threat to the British if funded by the Chinese and/or USA and/or Russia but they won't be receiving any direct military support to counter the British army. In comparison look at the American Revolution where the Americans received a relatively significant amount of support from the French and Spanish who were also distracting the British on other fronts. But this is the British empire at it's height militarily and in a position in which they aren't trying to fight all over the globe against France, Spain and Holland but squarely in India and Burma with one enemy that probably couldn't sustain an extended campaign in the region due to their sheer distance from it and two enemies having trouble pushing in the from the North. All this while receiving French support against their enemy. But again this period of history is definitely not my speciality.
 
Honestly I'm more interested in the British response to the inevitably calamitous Chinese invasion, because the plan is obviously very far-fetched.

See that's the problem, the Second Opium War ended in 1860 and even by the beginning of the year the Qing had suffered a number of setbacks against the British and French forces. Even by the end of 1859 the British and French forces had taken control of the Taku Forts which were relatively near to Beijing itself.

I'm not sure exactly but I don't see the Chinese risking an invasion of India through Burma until Autumn 1860 by which point the emperor was already trying to make a peace treaty with the British and French. I think that even if they did launch an invasion of India it wouldn't last long before the British and French occupied Beijing. Bear in mind that they didn't OTL but that was because by October they had already heavily defeated Chinese forces at Zhangjiawan. In the peace they would undoubtedly be forced to end any support for an Indian rebellion. Without any support I don't know how long an Indian rebellions would last.
 
The most likely result would be land cessions to Russia, Nepal and Burma (their price for moving against the UK) for no appreciable result, and a needless extension of the war into Tibet and East Turkestan.

Before the establishment of the Zongli Yamen in 1861 Qing diplomacy was relatively ad-hoc and a lot of Jalafuntai's proposals would have probably been obtained through hearsay and other informal channels, which is not the same as diplomatic analysis. The proposals in the memorial smack of simple 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' thinking and doesn't take into account the goals of the nations involved.

The Imperial Court was certainly more savvy than this and that's why the memorial was not followed up on.
 
Invading India: isn't the Taiping Rebellion sort of in between Peking and Assam? The situation in China was such a mess that they were fighting both the Taiping Rebellion and the Opium War at the same time.

Unless by some diplomatic miracle they persuade Hung Hsiu-chuan that India is thirsting for the true word of God and his younger son . . .
 
The Chinese fought Burma for three times under QianLong and lose pretty horribly. So if they cannot do it in Burma, never mind India.
 
Railroads

Invading India (overland from China) was difficult before railroads. Railroads are the second cheapest way to supply an army in the field.
The (British) Royal Navy would have prevented Chinese soldiers from travelling by sea (the cheapest supply method).

The Qing Dynasty discouraged railroad building until after the Opium Wars. The first serious Chinese railroad was not built until after 1900.

Even during WW2, only American wealth permitted flying (the most expensive method of transportation) cargo over the Burnese "Hump" and eventual construction of the "Burma Road." The USA admitted that the Hump was a frightfully expensive route, but they needed to supply Chinese troops distracting the Imperial Japanese Army.

So China invading India (during the Opium Wars) was not practical.
 
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