China takes Taiwan, 1950

[Adam Parsons]

Suppose that in the late 1940's, with Mao and his boys chasing the Nationalists off the mainland, that the PRC decided to go after Taiwan as well. Furthermore, let's assume that the Communists get enough people over to the island, and that the Nationalists fight as well as they usually did, with the result that by mid-1950, China controls all Taiwan, and Chiang Kai-Shek is sulking in an American exile. What happens now?

 

[Chris]

Presumabully the US wins quicker in Keora as they won't need to divert two carriers. On the other hand, china might be more self confident and will become involved in keora eariler

Chris

 

[Xen]

Intresting, it could work I think. The Chinese may not go into Korea on the grounds of Nationalist uprisinings still being put down on the island at various times.

 

[knightyknight]

It's pretty impossible for China to invade Taiwan at the 50s. First of all, the Communist country was formally established in 1949, and they just fought in the Korean during the 1950 - 1953. The Chinese used the "human flood" tactic, but that tactic is useless in an amphibious assault, since the Chinese have no way of projecting such immense manpower oversea. And the Chinese airforce was small and outdated back then, there'll be little to no air cover for the attack. And what's an amphibious assault without a navy, right? Well, the Chinese navy was close to non-existance back then. No landing crafts what so ever, no Chinese Marines, no armors, no aircraft carriers or support ships, no amphibious assault doctrines.

But for argument sake, let's say the Soviet lend the Chinese their Pacific surface fleet (which ain't much anyway), their airforce, and tanks to conquer Taiwan. And the US just complete ignore the fact that they are still piss off the Chinese intervention in the Korean war, and do a 180 to let Communists do whatever they want in the world. How would the world be without a democratic Taiwan you might say? Probably not much during the 60s and 70s, since China back then was busy hating on the Soviets, and destroying themselves with their "Cultural Revolution". However in the 80s and 90s, the US and China might of been better trading partners without little Taiwan in the way. The Chinese will be able to dominate and bully all her Asian neighbors by 2010 militarily and economically without worrying about a military armed Democratic neighbor to keep them in check. The Chinese will also change their military to be centered around projecting offensive power in the Pacific and Asia, not preparing for an amphibious assault on Taiwan as in OTL.

 

[Melvin Loh]

7th Fleet

IMHO the 7th Fleet would have acted as the closest thing to an impenetrable shield by 1950 to any Red Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, due to, as stated, the huge inferiority of Commie forces in terms of naval and air assets, and their strength lying exclusively in nos. of hordes with which to throw at and attempt to overwhelm the enemy.

 

[raharris1973]

a timing question

Didn't he say conquest would be complete by mid-1950? That would mean before the outbreak of the Korean War and the US decision to reverse policy and have the 7th Fleet Patrol the straits-- which was ordered on June 27th

 

[DuQuense]

1949

Once the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan in 1950, the chance of Mao taking it were slim, so lets have him take it in early 1949.

Receiving infomation that the nationalists, are fortifiing Taiwan as a fallback position, Mao sends several thousand troops, to Taiwan, several months later Taiwan falls to the Commuists, while some of the Japanese, leave- most of them having been born on the island stay. In late 1949 the nationalists surrender/exit into Vietman-Laos.

?Do we have the same Massacarce of the Japanese dominated middle class, as under the Nationalists?