China-Taiwan unfied by 1991 - state of US-China relations in '06?

If China and Taiwan had been reunified by the post-Cold War era

  • The US would find China more cooperative globally

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • The US would find China less cooperative globally

    Votes: 9 40.9%
  • It would be the same as OTL except for the Taiwan issue itself

    Votes: 11 50.0%

  • Total voters
    22

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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The PoD has got to be late enough so that it does no contaminate China's decision to undertake market reforms in the 1980s.

What if China and Taiwan reunified in the late 80s or so? Possible PoD would be Chiang Ching-kuo starts going crazy in teh 80s running the island into the ground such that unification with China ends up looking attractive after he's transitioned out of power.

An alternate PoD could be a Taiwanese-Soviet alliance emerging by the end of the 70s in response to increasing US-PRC ties. The collapse of the USSR leaves Taiwan friendless and more ready to reunify.

Fast forward to the 1991-2006 era. What will be the degree of tension between the US and China over this time? What will be the degree of US Chinese cooperation or conflict over matters like Korea, the Middle East, etc.?

Will US-Chinese relations be more cooperative, because the Taiwan irritant is removed (and the lack of a splittist issue for the US to support, means the US does not make China feel as insecure) and war scares are correspondingly reduced and economic ties encourage common thinkng on world political problems?

Or will they be less cooperative, because both countries still need to find a new enemy in each other without the Soviets in the equation (power rebalancing)....and furthermore, would China actually be more assertive and troublesome from Washington's perspective because they don't need to worry about risking more American support for Taiwan, because that issue is off the table.

Or will US-Chinese relations be about the same, indicating that in OTL US-Chinese global relations are not decisively effected by the US-China-Taiwanese triangle which exists in its own geopolitical cul-de-sac
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I voted China would be be less collaborative

I think the continuance of the Taiwan problem has kept China focused on that as a single issue since the 1990s. In OTL their instinct has been to avoid extra frictions unrelated to that issue, including extra frictions with the USA, because China doesn't want to bring on backlash in the form a more provocative and open US-Taiwanese alliance, and they want to be careful to avoid actvism that might make others go from a position of zero support to Taiwan to minimum dfiplomatic support for Taiwan. The backlash concern is primarily, that if China makes a point of challenging the US globally, then Taiwanese independence will gain even more confidence that they will have decisive US support. Secondarily, it is that the US would be in a position to retaliate for long-distance Chinese activism. by any number of negative steps including open support for an independent Taiwan, insertion of permanent US forces on Taiwan or a US decision to let Taiwan know it has no objection to it developing nuclear capability anymore.

In an ATL where reunification was accomplished at the end of the Cold War, China would not be so singly focused on Taiwan, would not worry about negfative repurcussions in the Taiwan sphere, and would be free to think of further aspirations globally. That doesn't mean necessarily a world dominating crusade, but more assertiveness in various regions would be very likely and would increase the odds of friction with the US, and other powers, by a bit.

At the same time that China might develop agendas that clash more with the US, and be more troublesome in that regard, it might actually be less angry about the US, because of the lack of the Taiwan issue.
 
The relationship between the United States and China by 2006 if Taiwan reunites with mainland would be same BUT China would be more cooperative because there's no Taiwan independence issue anymore.
 
I think China would be more combative and more interested in overtly spreading influence. Taiwan is a major problem in Chinese US relations. Aside from the economic advantages of joining with Taiwan I think the PRC leadership would be bolder in its foreign policy. It’s always been their plan not to confront the US while still growing however they would have a major weight lifted of them with the entrance of Taiwan into the PRC. They would feel a lot more confident in dealing with US enemies like Castro and Chavez, just as Russia has. Joint exercises etc.
 
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