China split between the CCP and IJA?

In the book "Mao: The Unknown Story" Mao is described as hating Jiang Jieshi even more than the Japanese and wished that the Nationalists would be totally defeated by them. He theorized that like with Poland, Stalin would be able to make a deal with Japan that split China up between the Japanese and the Soviet Union, with Mao's CCP controlling the Communist portion. Apparently he said that it would be nice to let the Japan have everything south of the Yangtze and to give them (the CCP) everything north of it.

Now, let's say that Khalkin Gol was more of a stalemate (or never even happened), or that somehow the Japanese decided to appease the Russians or came to their senses and realized they couldn't take all of China or something. What is the possibility that such a deal, a sort of East Asian "M-R Pact" could be concluded between the USSR, Japan, and the CCP? What would it require? Even if such a deal were made, would the Nationalists be crushed? Would Japan try to rule its portion as Japan or through a puppet? Where would the boundaries lie? How would this pact affect the 2nd World War at large?

I'd like your thoughts.
 
I'm not entirely sure if this is correct, but I do believe I read before that part of the reason for Japan's quagmire in China was that the Chinese resolutely refused the notion of making a peace settlement with Japan unless they abandoned everything they had conquered. This, together with the Japanese notion that the Chinese were hardly human beings, does not really seem to leave much room for diplomacy.
 
I don't think this can happen. Chiang Kai-Shek won't make peace with Japan. Japan is not able to crush China on its own. Left alone, China will slowly improve as American Lend Lease aide in 1941 on will make up for China's lack of industry (as long as the Burma Road is open). No Japanese pact with the CCP changes this as the CCP is not significant enough to change the strategic situation in favor of the Japanese.

If Mao goes with the Soviets to carve up China with the Japanese, the CCP loses 90%+ of its support. Being seen as anti-Japanese was a major recruiting tool. To betray China like that probably means the CCP loses everything eventually.

It's possible someone important like Zhou Enlai and other major figures leaves the CCP to rejoin the Nationalists, taking with them much of the local rank and file. Possibly, Mao and anyone else who agreed to such a deal would be killed although it's also possible a small hard core of Communists loyal to Moscow can still survive (but it will never become a major power in Chinese politics).

In any case, this weakens the CCP dramatically. It becomes utterly discredited and is no longer a legitimate future partner in an united China. Once the Allies win, there will be zero pressure on Chiang to include the CCP in future Chinese government. Instead, the US gives the Nationalists its full backing. Seen as traitors, the peasantry and other Chinese never flock to the CPP from a foolish view that Mao would be better than Chiang.
 
That'd kind of funny, considering that in OTL Mao specifically forbade his troops from engaging the Japanese and even encouraged them to pick fights with the Nationalists. But I guess that appearances are everything and if Mao was to openly agree to make a deal with the Japanese to the KMT's disfavor, he would lose a lot of support because unlike the sly, cloak-and-dagger tactics he used normally this would be a very public event.

However, would'nt it be possible for some kind of under-the-table agreement between the Soviet Union and Japan regarding China be met? Like "don't bother these Communist regions and we'll let you guys fight the Nationalists all you like.", while on the surface Japan would still be an enemy to be eventually driven from China. Mao was good at imposing lies on others, and I wonder if he would be able to pull this one off. Also, with the Japanese content, Stalin would not be as fearful of them attacking during Hitler's invasion as he was IOTL.
 
The Japanese did more or less leave the CCP alone IOTL. Other than their response to the 100 Regiments Offensive (the only siginificant attack made by the CCP agains the Japanese during the entire war), Japan ignored them as an insiginficant threat.

Information learned in the last few decades have significant eroded the myth of the CCP's actions during WWII. However, it used to be st andard textbook to say that the CCP did all the fighting and the Nationalists refused to fight. There is a lot of mythology surrounding Mao that is still out there.
 
Supposing the USSR doesn't have to worry about a resurgent Germany, and decides to stake out military "influence" in China? While I can see Stalin making such a call, it's still not clear they'd side with the CCP over the KMT at this point...
 

iddt3

Donor
At this point I think Stalin is more wary of Mao then Chaing. If he hands over north China to someone it probably won't be Mao.
 
Maybe the CCP could grant the Japanese coastal concessions, but it's not in anybody's good interest to give them full reign over the interior as well.
 
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