alternatehistory.com

Call it the real "First World War." It is interesting to contemplate the world in which China uses its economic and population strengths to achieve greater geopolitical weight in Eurasia much earlier. Many responses to this idea would indicate that China's central government throughout its many dynasties was not really interested in settling and controlling far-away lands that its considered unimportant or populated by "barbarians." But that world view begun to change by the end of the 16th century, and was replaced by an aggressive foreign and military policy by 1750s. By mid-18th century, Qing China expanded all along its borders, defeating and destroying the remnants of Mongolia/nomadic forces that have threatened its security for millenia, and penetrating deep into present-day Central Asia. There is even a book about that period of Chinese history: http://www.amazon.com/China-Marches-West-Conquest-Central/dp/067401684X

I would like to consider the POD either in 1580s, or around 1670s. By late 16th century, Ming China was weakening, and ultimately fought ruinous wars against expansionist Japan that led to the downfall of the native Chinese dynasty. At that time, Chinese population was anywhere between 150 -200 million people, and its economy was unmatched anywhere in the world. By 1670s, the time of China's conquest by the Manchus, China was willing to fight, but its ultimate expansion would come in the 18th century, decades away. It would be an incredible and globe-changing event if China - already fully aware of the European powers, as well as Russian, Asian and Middle Eastern states that stretched to the west - decided on the policy of territorial expansion much sooner than in OTL. In a major difference, along with the armies, millions of Chinese settlers would march to colonize the new territories.

Would such a policy stand the test at home, and would China's economy and treasury handle such a massive expansion? Something similar to that did take place during Han and Tang dynasties, but Chinese leadership settled only on a system of military forts and installations. When trouble struck, there were not that many Chinese to get in the fight, or present a natural "human border." In this ATL, China's armies and settlers marched west into Central Asia and what is now Russian Siberia and South Ural region. While by 1670s, Russia nominally controls these territories, it does not have enough manpower to stem the tide of China's settlers. Fighting breaks out, and even when Chinese armies lose in engagements with locals or Russian Cossaks- as in OTL- there are more men to draw into the military from the large numbers of new colonists. Once the Chinese settler-armies break through the remaining nomad tribes- remnants of once-powerful Asiatic hordes that shook the world - only Russia and Persia remain as two major buffer states between Europe and Beijing.

In late 17th century, Russia was experiencing major upheaval - it just suffered a wide-scale rebellion led by Stepan Razin, its economy was struggling and its population was a mere fraction of China's - only around 10-12 million people. It could not defeat Crimean Tatar kingdom, an ally of the Ottomans, and it was pressured from the west by Sweden and the remaining Polish power. The news of a massive Chines expansion nearing Russian borders may have been terrifying to Moscow, and the arriving remnants of the defeated tribes, smashed and removed by Han armies and Han settlers, did not add to Russia's overall domestic security. It started fearing an eventual defeat by the Chinese and ultimate absorption of Russia proper into the ever-expanding Chinese empire. Everywhere they went, Chinese set up towns and villages, built roads and canals to jump-start the economy and connect the new territories to the Han heartland.

By 1690s, almost two decades into this expansion, European powers were worried. They understood that if Russia is conquered, nothing would stop the numerically-superior Chinese armies from marching further west, smash the Poles and Lithuanians and to take advantage of major divisions in Europe. And while Han armies may have lacked modern weapons of the time, their sheer numbers more than made up for that. In one battle near Ural mountains, Chinese lost 20,000 soldiers - to Russia's 4,000. The outcome was a victory to the Han, who simply steamrolled over the remaining Russian defenders in their westward march.

Taking into account China's aggressive posturing, the European powers convened an extraordinary meeting in Paris in 1691. In attendance were delegations from Russia, Poland-Lithuania, Prussia, Austria, France, England, Spain, Portugal, Bavaria, Lower Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Saxony. It was decided that the "Christendom" would fight China on two fronts- Russia, Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Prussia, and Austria would field land armies to try and prevent Russian collapse. And the five major naval powers of the time- England, France, Spain, Portugal and Lower Netherlands- would send their navies half-way around the world in the largest armada since the Roman times to strike at China from the east, at its weakest point. Lacking a navy, China would not be able to adequately challenge this bold move - theoretically speaking, of course.

The Paris Conference did not go as smoothly as planned, but almost everyone was in overall agreement that China had to be stopped. Absent from the meeting were the Ottoman and Persian representatives, whom the Europeans distrusted. Beijing learnt of the event as its troops begun to approach Volga river - Russia's new heartland. In Paris, spies were everywhere. Fear hung in the air, but the resolve to fight was unwavering.(this is Europe in 1700: http://www.euratlas.com/big/bis1700.htm)

I would appreciate your comments, and perhaps a map - as I learn how to make AH maps on my own. Thank you all in advance!

DCInsider
Top