China in a CP Victory?

Okay, so let's say that the Central Powers win the Great War. It's pretty well established in AH thought what becomes of Europe, Africa, etc., and generally what happens to Asia is that Germany loses all its presence there.

But nobody every talks about the ramifications in China. I don't imagine they'd be too different to OTL - the Bolsheviks replace Russian influence in Mongolia, Germany's spheres of influence are replaced by Japan and China soon falls apart into Civil War.

Is this a given though? Can the civil war be shorter? Avoided entirely? Can China become stable and strong?
 
I think that European presence as a whole is a lot weakened. I don't know whether France can hold on Indochina, and overall decolonialism in Asia should speed up affecting British colonies, and Russia is out for quite some time. That opens East Asia for Japan - which in turn alienates the US.

Therefore, I think china faces a more expansionist Japan and a US which might be more interested in China.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Hmm, I wonder if Chiang would beat the Northern Warlords if the CP won, (that is if this doesn't butterfly away Chiang's leadership of the KMT).
 
With the Central Powers winning, Russia may well continue to be an anarchic mess, meaning that Japan is in a strong position to maintain their hold in Vladivostock and the surrounding area, maybe even formalise it and make it permanent, because only the USA will initially be in a position to oppose it, and if they've just lost a war, even if they lost it before getting fully committed, they aren't going to be willing to use force to oppose Japan.

Japan and Germany will pretty soon sign a treaty sorting things out between them - I don't buy into the cold war between the two of them idea. They both look like victors and they will formalise it and sort out Tsingtao and the N Pacific islands. Intriguing is the possibility that Japan would actually return Tsingtao if Germany were to recognise her in Vladivostock?

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If Japan won't give up the German territories it seized during the war, and since Germany is in no position to force them to give them up, the typical diplomatic solution is for other defeated powers to compensate the winner for any losses. So we may see some minor British and French possessions in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, or Africa given to the Germans in compensation. Likely areas might be to give the Germans more of the Solomons. If the British had any areas in China outside of Hong Kong and Shanghai, they might also be willing to give them up. The Japanese might also give up some of the more worthless islands back to Germany. If Germany is completely driven out of China, then we will probably see cooperation with the KMT develop as it did in our timeline to specifically build China up against Japan.
 
Kaiserreich mod of HoI 2 gives a somewhat realistic answer on that. With german victory and her new economic dominance on eastern Europe and weaker overall colonial policies of Allied nations as a consequence of their defeat you could have an equal economical dominance of Germany and Japan over China.
 
Kaiserreich mod of HoI 2 gives a somewhat realistic answer on that. With german victory and her new economic dominance on eastern Europe and weaker overall colonial policies of Allied nations as a consequence of their defeat you could have an equal economical dominance of Germany and Japan over China.

Not at all. If Germany won WWI, it doesn't mean the UK collapses; they will still want Germany to GTFO of China and the entire Pacific.

I think the only way to answer this question is to read up on French activity in China post 1914 and imagine them not doing those things.

Though this answer also largely depends on when the PoD is. Whether the Germans win at the First Battle of the Marne of succeed in the Spring Offensive drastically changes America's and Russia's rolls in China. We also need to read up on French activity in China post 1914/1918 and imagine them not doing those things.
 
I was thinking the Marne is the obvious way to go. America isn't even in the war, nor are the Turks.

The basic premise I'm going for is that soon after the war the political unrest in Russia becomes an all-out civil war prompting Germany to invade again, as well as other European countries becoming far more fascistic with regards to communists (and in many places minorities who enjoy the prospects of communism). The Kaiser begins a crusade to destroy communism (leading him into Russia and Austria-Hungary).

But China will be inspired. European colonialism will already be weakened, but now the Chinese have an ideology which will get rid of it all together. So the Chinese communists start their own civil war and all the while chunks of China and Russia are breaking away. Japan jumps into the game for Manchuria and (after France's position here collapses) Indochina.

But is that plausible? Can China really become a communist state earlier than OTL and function before OTL's WWII even started? Or even a democracy? If they become either, I suspect a sense of nationalist revanchism will appear with regards to Manchuria and other treaty ports.
 
Kaiserreich mod of HoI 2 gives a somewhat realistic answer on that. With german victory and her new economic dominance on eastern Europe and weaker overall colonial policies of Allied nations as a consequence of their defeat you could have an equal economical dominance of Germany and Japan over China.

Seriously, KR has Qing as the major Chinese player and a German dominated corporate state as well (that has a possibility to form up with some other faction IF memory serves... might be wrong about that though). Realistic?

Germany would be extremely lucky to keep what they had on the Pacific before the war. Even assuming the Japanese and the British will give Germans back their pre-1914 Pacific colonies they sure as hell won't allow Kaiser to carve up China as well. Germans already have Europe and much of Africa under their thumb.
 
Kaiserreich mod of HoI 2 gives a somewhat realistic answer on that. With german victory and her new economic dominance on eastern Europe and weaker overall colonial policies of Allied nations as a consequence of their defeat you could have an equal economical dominance of Germany and Japan over China.

After a late victory that sees Germany utterly exhausted, they roll into China and crush all opposition with barely any resistance. Presumably this invasion is staged from Europe:rolleyes:

Very unrealistic.
 
This is one of the things that IMO CalBear's TL doesn't deal with very well. In his scenario China falls into a near-permanent state of anarchy with the KMT and CCP against each other, with no end in sight by 1958. In my view this is unrealistic because by that point of Chinese history, there were only the KMT and CCP as viable forces (the warlords had mostly joined one of the two) and a civil war between the two sides would've been resolved within a decade as had been the case in Russia.

More realistic scenarios would thus include the following, depending on the course of the European War which would most obviously affect the choices made by the Americans:
- The KMT is given more American help and advice which helps it counter the Communists more effectively. Reforms and use of nationalism (the NRA did fight almost all of the SSJW while the CCP was camping out in Yanan) allow the KMT to win over the people and defeat the Communists. They unite the country in 1950-55.
- The KMT, with US help, consolidates a part of the country, but is unable to win over other parts, particularly ones that were formerly part of Japan's empire, which fall to the CCP and their allied warlords. US assistance and reform helps the KMT survive in a divided China. Again, the fighting should be somewhat resolved by 1955, though this solution does not prevent a second Chinese civil war.
- The KMT, despite having copious American assistance, eventually is defeated by the Communist forces much the same way as in OTL, from the grass-roots, while the KMT is not able to organize itself to effectively counter this. China is united under the CCP by 1960. The US sees this as an acceptable loss as the PRC will not attempt world conquest like Hitler.

EDIT: Oh shit! I read this as being "what happens to China in an Axis victory scenario"! Please excuse everything I have said!
 

yourworstnightmare

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Kaiserreich mod of HoI 2 gives a somewhat realistic answer on that. With german victory and her new economic dominance on eastern Europe and weaker overall colonial policies of Allied nations as a consequence of their defeat you could have an equal economical dominance of Germany and Japan over China.
Actually the KR setup in China is the largest ASB in the game. Restored Qing? WTF!
And the German economic zone is way too large to be realistic.
And don't get me started on the Shanqing Tianguo.
 
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I was thinking the Marne is the obvious way to go. America isn't even in the war, nor are the Turks.

The basic premise I'm going for is that soon after the war the political unrest in Russia becomes an all-out civil war prompting Germany to invade again, as well as other European countries becoming far more fascistic with regards to communists (and in many places minorities who enjoy the prospects of communism). The Kaiser begins a crusade to destroy communism (leading him into Russia and Austria-Hungary).

But China will be inspired. European colonialism will already be weakened, but now the Chinese have an ideology which will get rid of it all together. So the Chinese communists start their own civil war and all the while chunks of China and Russia are breaking away. Japan jumps into the game for Manchuria and (after France's position here collapses) Indochina.

But is that plausible? Can China really become a communist state earlier than OTL and function before OTL's WWII even started? Or even a democracy? If they become either, I suspect a sense of nationalist revanchism will appear with regards to Manchuria and other treaty ports.

Honestly, I think question can best be answered if asked in the AH Project I created. Once we decide what Europe looks like, even w/ or w/o Lorraine completely annexed, we can discuss China, the Russian civil war, the AH civil war, and more things. So I think the AHP can ask this question under the umbrella I designed for the thread.

This is because until we find out what a CP Victory truly entails, how can we answer this question of yours?

Do you agree?
 
Guess wrongly constructed my statement. "Somewhat realistic" in a fact that the german economical dominance was possible, not all other things.
 
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