China doesn't do economic reforms until the end of cold war

What would be the impact if China's markets reforms were delayed until the end of the Cold war

Could China still end up as the world's manufacturing hub

How large would it's economy be by modern times
 
Yes, since the initial Chinese economic reforms were in 1978, I’d say a significant effect.

Mostly manufacturing declines more slowly in existing centers. Although maybe one or two new centers, perhaps Indonesia?

With automation, manufacturing is a shrinking pie.
 
. . .more American manufacturing move to Latin America . . .
I’ve read that globalization has lifted a heck of a lot of people out of poverty. I’ve also read that you’ve got to divide the positive effect into China and non-China.

China big enough to call a lot of its own economic shots. The smaller Latin American countries like Guatemala and Costa Rica, maybe not so much. But Brazil and Argentina, maybe plenty big enough.
 
. . . and Venezuela ?
Okay, with Venezuela and Hugo Chavez, not that he was a socialist, that can actually work with an oil-based economy,

But the fact that he was a damn centralist.

For even if he’s not stockpiling money for his own personal use, the people around him can be selling access so to speak and doing quite well.
 
How about Colombia and Venezuela ?

If there's no China then Western manufacturing will be looking for anywhere cheap and reasonably stable. Venezuela already had a long history of US investment and American companies operating there so I'd think they'd be a prime target.
 
So basically China puts off reforms until some point in the early 1990s.

Thats plenty of time for othet nations to scoop up business that might have moved to China OTL.

What happens if they try to push one or two more Great Leap Forward scenarios? Aside from not being able to significantly improve their economy as they'd hoped, it actually set their economy back. They could also risk another Great Chinese Famine. Deaths from that have ranged from supposedly as low as 18 million to possibly as high as 55 million.
 
But why would China do another Great Leap Forward? The only people who could conceivably try to repeat that would be the Gang of Four, and their priorities focused more of ideological purging, rather than economic pie in the sky schemes.
 
If there's no China then Western manufacturing will be looking for anywhere cheap and reasonably stable. Venezuela already had a long history of US investment and American companies operating there so I'd think they'd be a prime target.

Not enough labor to metabolize and too many oppritunities for terrorism/instability to be the prime target. I imagine the money would be better off going to India and Indonesia, who have the rural populations to pull into the new manufacturing centers and woulden't require overthrowing the governments to get them to drink Washington's milkshake. There's also the possability of Eastern Europe picking up some of the slack.
 
But why would China do another Great Leap Forward? The only people who could conceivably try to repeat that would be the Gang of Four, and their priorities focused more of ideological purging, rather than economic pie in the sky schemes.

I would say continued stagnation and propagation of Cultural Revolution ideals are more likely than any reattempt at the Great Leap or similar schemes. Basically a lot of waste and inefficiency until reforms happen. Maybe a social catastrophe or two. Think rot and decay instead of something massive and dramatic.
 
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