China does not dismantle its navy and the Treasure Fleet

Lusitania

Donor
Why would China trade with Europeans for spice?

Spice isn't from Europe, it's produced in Indonesia and India, you don't need to trade with Europeans for spice
It really depend on who control the production of it. Or trade routes. So if trade allowed the Europeans with their supperior ships and weapons would of had secondary source for the spices and been able to trade with China for Chinese goods

My point was that this option would of enriched China government giving it $ for army and navy. Plus strengthened its economy.

If China control the spices fine but it would be trying to control them at time portuguese followed by other Europeans were arriving in area. Do the best they could do was to legitimize trade. Expand their trade. Maybe strengthen allied and subject nations but even those could fall. The arrival of Europeans would of changed dynamics of whole region.
 
The British Empire and the US didn't create a strong navy for the purpose of having more imports than exports either.
Correct. The US and Britain created a strong navy because they were seperated from any potential threats by ocean. Creating a strong navy was the single best way to ensure national security. This is not true of China. China has a mortal threat on its border, one which only recently invaded.

Yes they do,they just didn't quite realize it.
Who exactly?

Japan? Bah, a backwards and tiny country with a miniscule army.

Europe? Far away and too fragmented. India? Ditto. Sure Europe became a threat 300 years later, but you can't form policies now on possibilities for longer into the future than the US has existed.

China's threats are to the north, and to a lesser extent to the west. And it is there that they have to put their attention.
 
Correct. The US and Britain created a strong navy because they were seperated from any potential threats by ocean. Creating a strong navy was the single best way to ensure national security. This is not true of China. China has a mortal threat on its border, one which only recently invaded.


Who exactly?

Japan? Bah, a backwards and tiny country with a miniscule army.

Europe? Far away and too fragmented. India? Ditto. Sure Europe became a threat 300 years later, but you can't form policies now on possibilities for longer into the future than the US has existed.

China's threats are to the north, and to a lesser extent to the west. And it is there that they have to put their attention.
Pirates.Did you actually read the rest of my post? The heartland of the Ming Dynasty was under threat by them.Zhu Yuanzhang recognized pirates as a threat from the very beginning. It's just that his solution towards them was plain stupid and ridiculous--completely backfiring in the end.
 
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Pirates.Did you actually read the rest of my post? The heartland of the Ming Dynasty was under threat by them.Zhu Yuanzhang recognized pirates as a threat from the very beginning. It's just that his solution towards them was plain stupid and ridiculous--completely backfiring in the end.
The woukou pirates were a threat for a relatively short time, with their raids decreasing after action taken against them in the 16th century. They were not an existential threat to China the way the north was. The campaign against them was a success and there remained no reason to maintain a navy.
 
The woukou pirates were a threat for a relatively short time, with their raids decreasing after action taken against them in the 16th century. They were not an existential threat to China the way the north was. The campaign against them was a success and there remained no reason to maintain a navy.
And during the same period of time,they were continuously harassed by European ships,who behaved little more than pirates.And the wokou threat actually existed since the 14th century.

The barbarian tribes to the north was only a threat because the Ming armies were continuously underfunded.If they actually opened up private trade and built a navy that can help secure overseas territory and protect trade,then they would have been able to better fund Ming armies to the north.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
To give everyone in this thread an idea of the size of the operation that we are talking about. The Chinese would need to have enough profit to pay for an operation similar to this.
http://digg.com/2017/dutch-east-india-size
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_India_Company

This sort of contest is a winner take all, the French East India Company and the Danish East India Company the Dutch defeated. The British survived because they concentrated in India.
But in many ways that was an evaluation of before the crash and its value was way over valued. The crash was also ten times worse than any crash we have witnessed.
 
To give everyone in this thread an idea of the size of the operation that we are talking about. The Chinese would need to have enough profit to pay for an operation similar to this.
http://digg.com/2017/dutch-east-india-size
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_India_Company

This sort of contest is a winner take all, the French East India Company and the Danish East India Company the Dutch defeated. The British survived because they concentrated in India.
I think the Ming Dynasty,if they wanted,would have a much easier time running operations in the East Indies compared to the VOC,considering the distance and Chinese communities already there.Heck,the pirate lord Chen Chuyi,whom Zheng He defeated in the first expedition,was essentially running a mini-empire in the region. Chinese control of Indonesia would have extended the influence of Chinese merchants west of Malacca,which in otl became near non-existent during the Ming Dynasty.
 
But in many ways that was an evaluation of before the crash and its value was way over valued. The crash was also ten times worse than any crash we have witnessed.


True but it does give a framework for the magnitude of what is required. It was a huge operation.
 
I think the Ming Dynasty,if they wanted,would have a much easier time running operations in the East Indies compared to the VOC,considering the distance and Chinese communities already there.Heck,the pirate lord Chen Chuyi,whom Zheng He defeated in the first expedition,was essentially running a mini-empire in the region. Chinese control of Indonesia would have extended the influence of Chinese merchants west of Malacca,which in otl became near non-existent during the Ming Dynasty.

There are clearly pluses and minuses between VOC and the Chinese but what it is clear it is a large and expensive task and there would be only one winner.
 
True but it does give a framework for the magnitude of what is required. It was a huge operation.
China has conducted similar operations for a substantial length of time before,like the Protectorate to Pacify the West,and I dare say that it will be more profitable and relatively easier considering that unlike the Protectorate to Pacify the West where there were strong opponents(Abbasids,Tibetans,Uyghurs,Turks etc),there won't be any major powers challenging it.There's way more resources and fertile land in SE Asia as well.
 

Lusitania

Donor
China has conducted similar operations for a substantial length of time before,like the Protectorate to Pacify the West,and I dare say that it will be more profitable and relatively easier considering that unlike the Protectorate to Pacify the West where there were strong opponents(Abbasids,Tibetans,Uyghurs,Turks etc),there won't be any major powers challenging it.There's way more resources and fertile land in SE Asia as well.
The issue is that at same time China will be trying to implement the policies of expansion and increased naval strength is the same time that Europeans are arriving in the region. If the Chinese actions is viewed by other nations as hostile they will side with the Europeans against the Chinese.

The issue is that treasure fleets were meant to impress the other nations and also influence them by providing lavish gifts. A very expensive endevour for the Chinese to continue over a century or two to achieve dominance while at same time keeping both north and west safe from attacks.
 
The issue is that at same time China will be trying to implement the policies of expansion and increased naval strength is the same time that Europeans are arriving in the region. If the Chinese actions is viewed by other nations as hostile they will side with the Europeans against the Chinese.
The Europeans didn't arrive for nearly a century after the treasure fleet,so there's plenty of time for China to entrench its' hold over the region.Besides that,the Europeans that arrived were too small in size to fight a maritime China effectively.Just look at the seventeenth century where Chinese maritime power has clearly regressed for example,the Chinese were still able to defeat the Europeans because the Europeans were simply out-manned and outgunned.
The issue is that treasure fleets were meant to impress the other nations and also influence them by providing lavish gifts. A very expensive endevour for the Chinese to continue over a century or two to achieve dominance while at same time keeping both north and west safe from attacks.
And that is why they should run the region like a Tang Protectorate(aka just how the VOC did). With the exception of a few important strategic locations, like Singapore and Chinese majority regions for example,governance of most regions should be left to local rulers,who would be taxed and required to contribute troops in war. These rulers will in turn be protected by Chinese troops and disputes between local rulers arbitrated by the Protector-General.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
The Europeans didn't arrive for nearly a century after the treasure fleet,so there's plenty of time for China to entrench its' hold over the region.Besides that,the Europeans that arrived were too small in size to fight a maritime China effectively.Just look at the seventeenth century where Chinese maritime power has clearly regressed for example,the Chinese were still able to defeat the Europeans because the Europeans were simply out-manned and outgunned.

The treasure fleets finished in 1435. The huge costs of the fleets was enormous and China had no ability to continue supporting them over long period of time as threats from north and west demanded greater Chinese support and with low taxation of Chinese government there was not enough $ to support all enterprises. These treasure fleets provided little to no economic value to China and were very expensive with not only the cost of ships and men but also the cost of the gifts and bribes were given to other countries.

For the Chinese to of increased its power and influence in the region would of required one of two things military conquest or trade and settlement. Neither of which could of been maintained with the Chinese taxation policies at time but more importantly Chinese attitudes towards maritime trade and the Chinese who pursued it.

Any expansion into the region would of been at the expanse of other powers and interests. So Europeans while few at beginning would of aligned themselves with the powers who were jealous and upset at Chinese in region.

Now let’s look at timeline.

Chinese treasure fleet voyages 1421-1435.

At this point some decision needs to be made how to proceed and how to find the maritime expansion. The Chinese would of required to either build more ships to launch invasions or to restructure their naval forces to expand their trade network and protect trade. This would of taken years if not decades and at all times at the whim of next emperor who may be of opinion the cost not worth it. Threats from north or west would of taxed chinese resources and more than likely diverted money to those regions.

Realistic if a continued strategy to expand Chinese influence was continued we could of seen substancial Chinese power in the later part of the 15th century. Post 1475 at earliest.

Yes the Portuguese with their supperior ships would of found a very different south east Asia but still able to establish themselves in Ceylon and India. They would of either traded with Chinese and their subject nations of aligned themselves with other nations who opposed the Chinese. That would take us to the end of the 16th century.

Now enter the Dutch and English who hungry for the riches of the east would of been able to array more power and forces against the Chinese.

All this time China has to continue investing huge amounts of money into the subject nations, naval fleet. Hoping that revenue from trade would of payed a large or all part of those costs. All of this was only possible with a huge physiological change in attitude by Chinese government and those in power towards Chinese merchants and sailors.

A huge task and one that one slip up and misguided decision bring about its collapse.

Look at the Portuguese, they lost to the Dutch due to over extensions, lack of personnel. Unfortunately they did not have access to a another group of people like the Norwegian sailors who made up a huge portion of VOC sailors. The Portuguese also suffered the huge loss of majority of its leadership including king in 1536 which led to disastrous Iberian union and destruction of huge portion of Portuguese fleet in the ill fated attempted Spanish invasion of England.

The Dutch also were able to sail to the Indian and East Indies because the Dutch spies stole the copies of the Portuguese maritime charts so they were not sailing there blindly.

So huge obstacles in Chinese ways both internally and externally.
 
The treasure fleets finished in 1435. The huge costs of the fleets was enormous and China had no ability to continue supporting them over long period of time as threats from north and west demanded greater Chinese support and with low taxation of Chinese government there was not enough $ to support all enterprises. These treasure fleets provided little to no economic value to China and were very expensive with not only the cost of ships and men but also the cost of the gifts and bribes were given to other countries.

For the Chinese to of increased its power and influence in the region would of required one of two things military conquest or trade and settlement. Neither of which could of been maintained with the Chinese taxation policies at time but more importantly Chinese attitudes towards maritime trade and the Chinese who pursued it.
Honestly,plenty of Chinese favored maritime trade,it's just that Zhu Yuanzhang and his family were too poorly educated(or rather too arrogant given their contempt for merchants) to realize it.The POD would be for the initial expeditions to do something productive like setting up trading bases in the area and opening up private trade,instead of wasting money to appear magnanimous to local rulers. If they did that,then the expeditions would provide economic value to China.
Realistic if a continued strategy to expand Chinese influence was continued we could of seen substancial Chinese power in the later part of the 15th century. Post 1475 at earliest.

Yes the Portuguese with their supperior ships would of found a very different south east Asia but still able to establish themselves in Ceylon and India. They would of either traded with Chinese and their subject nations of aligned themselves with other nations who opposed the Chinese. That would take us to the end of the 16th century.

Now enter the Dutch and English who hungry for the riches of the east would of been able to array more power and forces against the Chinese.

All this time China has to continue investing huge amounts of money into the subject nations, naval fleet. Hoping that revenue from trade would of payed a large or all part of those costs. All of this was only possible with a huge physiological change in attitude by Chinese government and those in power towards Chinese merchants and sailors.

A huge task and one that one slip up and misguided decision bring about its collapse.

Look at the Portuguese, they lost to the Dutch due to over extensions, lack of personnel. Unfortunately they did not have access to a another group of people like the Norwegian sailors who made up a huge portion of VOC sailors. The Portuguese also suffered the huge loss of majority of its leadership including king in 1536 which led to disastrous Iberian union and destruction of huge portion of Portuguese fleet in the ill fated attempted Spanish invasion of England.

The Dutch also were able to sail to the Indian and East Indies because the Dutch spies stole the copies of the Portuguese maritime charts so they were not sailing there blindly.

So huge obstacles in Chinese ways both internally and externally.
The European ships were only superior because the Chinese burnt all of their ship designs and then forbade anyone from building more ships,which lead to stagnation,if not outright regression of Chinese shipbuilding. Realistically, if maritime commerce and a navy were to be continued,ship design would evolve,even taking in features of European ships if they proved superior.

Assuming that the Europeans still made it to the Indian Ocean,then they suffer from the problem that they are far away from home with massive logistical problems and limited personnel to do much to the Chinese. Even if the Europeans are brazen enough to fight the Chinese,the local rulers aren't stupid.They will realize that the Europeans don't have enough forces to help them against a much larger Chinese navy.The treasure fleet alone contained over 20,000 personnel. The Europeans were never able to deploy anything close to this scale in the Indian Ocean until the 18th century.Such European interventions would have been easily defeated and completely cripple said European power's influence over the region. It would make more sense for the Europeans to try and trade peacefully with the Chinese than provoke any fights with them in the region,which is basically what happened until the Opium Wars after they were repeatedly defeated by the Chinese in the 16th and 17th century.

Even if there's some form of military disaster,they Chinese could easily recover due to their close proximity to SE Asia,not to mention having large Chinese communities in the region.

Finally,Chinese rule in the region most likely would have been relaxed--just like the Dutch did. It's rule would have been a soft appeal(self rule and commerce) backed by hard physical power(military forces). If the Dutch can keep a large part of SE Asia against other competitors,why can't China,who is much more powerful do the same?
 
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Lusitania

Donor
Honestly,plenty of Chinese favored maritime trade,it's just that Zhu Yuanzhang and his family were too poorly educated(or rather too arrogant given their contempt for merchants) to realize it.The POD would be for the initial expeditions to do something productive like setting up trading bases in the area and opening up private trade,instead of wasting money to appear magnanimous to local rulers. If they did that,then the expeditions would provide economic value to China.
The European ships were only superior because the Chinese burnt all of their ship designs and then forbade anyone from building more ships,which lead to stagnation,if not outright regression of Chinese shipbuilding. Realistically, if maritime commerce and a navy were to be continued,ship design would evolve,even taking in features of European ships if they proved superior.

Assuming that the Europeans still made it to the Indian Ocean,then they suffer from the problem that they are far away from home with massive logistical problems and limited personnel to do much to the Chinese. Even if the Europeans are brazen enough to fight the Chinese,the local rulers aren't stupid.They will realize that the Europeans don't have enough forces to help them against a much larger Chinese navy.The treasure fleet alone contained over 20,000 personnel. The Europeans were never able to deploy anything close to this scale in the Indian Ocean until the 18th century.Such European interventions would have been easily defeated and completely cripple said European power's influence over the region. It would make more sense for the Europeans to try and trade peacefully with the Chinese than provoke any fights with them in the region,which is basically what happened until the Opium Wars after they were repeatedly defeated by the Chinese in the 16th and 17th century.

Even if there's some form of military disaster,they Chinese could easily recover due to their close proximity to SE Asia,not to mention having large Chinese communities in the region.

Finally,Chinese rule in the region most likely would have been relaxed--just like the Dutch did. It's rule would have been a soft appeal(self rule and commerce) backed by hard physical power(military forces). If the Dutch can keep a large part of SE Asia against other competitors,why can't China,who is much more powerful do the same?


I do not disagree that China could of achieved what you stated but it is how they went about it that would determine if they would of succeeded. For it to of succeeded the taxation of China would of needed to change for the extra costs of the martitime trade to be funded.

How the Chinese treat other nations will also determine how they perceive the Chinese and if they would welcome European competition and potential alliances. The Chinese leadership would need to get rid of their superiority complex that China the center of the world and all others are secound rate countries. If they continue this then resentment and rebellion are just a moment away.

Nothing in the Chinese maritime expansion would preclude the Portuguese from sailing to India. It’s too late for China to stop them and to influence and build fleets in the Indian Ocean. We are talking about starting in 1420. The Chinese would be building relationships and such in the first few decades with concentration on the east Asia to Malacca first.

How the Chinese react to Europeans would determine how things progress. What would the Europeans have that they could trade. Could they monopolize the spices from India to trade with China for its goods? Would they grow opium?

Lastly I used Portugal problems to provide a visualization of potential problems that could arise. Yes China could succeed or it could flounder like the Portuguese, then Dutch and others who when rocked by internal discord and faced with many enemies from many sides are weakened.
 
I do not disagree that China could of achieved what you stated but it is how they went about it that would determine if they would of succeeded. For it to of succeeded the taxation of China would of needed to change for the extra costs of the martitime trade to be funded.
Now I admit that what I proposed was the best case scenario,but in the early Ming Dynasty, a lot of such things we have both proposed are easily within reach for the Ming Dynasty. By virtue of simply just opening up private foreign trade,government revenues would be increased substantially. Another thing is that low taxation wasn't really the problem for the Ming Dynasty--it's the liberal grants of tax exemption for people who passed the provincial exams that's the problem(who often that not also hold land on behalf of friends and family members who did not pass exams to help them evade taxes),that and the fact that as time progressed more and more land's consolidated under these people. During the early days of the dynasty when the emperors are still powerful(especially Zhu Yuanzhang himself and Zhu Di),such reforms are achievable.I'd say that it took until the Tumu Crisis before the bureaucrats could achieve the type of veto power that they achieved in the later years of the empire. Even with the problems I mentioned,the early Ming Dynasty didn't really have a significant fiscal problem given that much land's held under land owning peasants.
How the Chinese treat other nations will also determine how they perceive the Chinese and if they would welcome European competition and potential alliances. The Chinese leadership would need to get rid of their superiority complex that China the center of the world and all others are secound rate countries. If they continue this then resentment and rebellion are just a moment away.
The thing is that while they do think that China is number one,the policy under even the expansionist Han and Tang Dynasty would be to try and be benevolent to these 'poor barbarians' vassals. While rebellion by non-Chinese vassals do occur,a lot of the time,it had to do with corrupt incompetent officials or these vassals being opportunist rather than it being the central government's policy to treat the vassals poorly.
Nothing in the Chinese maritime expansion would preclude the Portuguese from sailing to India. It’s too late for China to stop them and to influence and build fleets in the Indian Ocean. We are talking about starting in 1420. The Chinese would be building relationships and such in the first few decades with concentration on the east Asia to Malacca first.
I agree that there's nothing stopping the Portuguese from sailing to India,and that it is unlikely that the Chinese will have strong control west of Malacca,but it is very possible that the Chinese can turn the region east of Malacca into its' backyard(given the decentralized nature of the SE Asia).
How the Chinese react to Europeans would determine how things progress. What would the Europeans have that they could trade. Could they monopolize the spices from India to trade with China for its goods? Would they grow opium?

Lastly I used Portugal problems to provide a visualization of potential problems that could arise. Yes China could succeed or it could flounder like the Portuguese, then Dutch and others who when rocked by internal discord and faced with many enemies from many sides are weakened.
I don't think they can establish a monopoly,but I do think that the Portuguese and Dutch etc will try and monopolize the flow of Chinese goods to the rest of Europe. Barring an Indian power actually uniting India and creating a thalassocracy of their own,I don't think there's really any power that can completely overthrow Chinese control of SE Asia(if the Chinese managed to establish mastery over the area and realized its' worth). There will be setbacks,but I don't think it's something that they cannot recover,given the massive resources China had and the close proximity of it to the region.
 
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The Europeans didn't arrive for nearly a century after the treasure fleet,so there's plenty of time for China to entrench its' hold over the region.Besides that,the Europeans that arrived were too small in size to fight a maritime China effectively.Just look at the seventeenth century where Chinese maritime power has clearly regressed for example,the Chinese were still able to defeat the Europeans because the Europeans were simply out-manned and outgunned.
And that is why they should run the region like a Tang Protectorate(aka just how the VOC did). With the exception of a few important strategic locations, like Singapore and Chinese majority regions for example,governance of most regions should be left to local rulers,who would be taxed and required to contribute troops in war. These rulers will in turn be protected by Chinese troops and disputes between local rulers arbitrated by the Protector-General.



The treasure fleets finished in 1435. The huge costs of the fleets was enormous and China had no ability to continue supporting them over long period of time as threats from north and west demanded greater Chinese support and with low taxation of Chinese government there was not enough $ to support all enterprises. These treasure fleets provided little to no economic value to China and were very expensive with not only the cost of ships and men but also the cost of the gifts and bribes were given to other countries.

For the Chinese to of increased its power and influence in the region would of required one of two things military conquest or trade and settlement. Neither of which could of been maintained with the Chinese taxation policies at time but more importantly Chinese attitudes towards maritime trade and the Chinese who pursued it.

Any expansion into the region would of been at the expanse of other powers and interests. So Europeans while few at beginning would of aligned themselves with the powers who were jealous and upset at Chinese in region.

Now let’s look at timeline.

Chinese treasure fleet voyages 1421-1435.

At this point some decision needs to be made how to proceed and how to find the maritime expansion. The Chinese would of required to either build more ships to launch invasions or to restructure their naval forces to expand their trade network and protect trade. This would of taken years if not decades and at all times at the whim of next emperor who may be of opinion the cost not worth it. Threats from north or west would of taxed chinese resources and more than likely diverted money to those regions.

Realistic if a continued strategy to expand Chinese influence was continued we could of seen substancial Chinese power in the later part of the 15th century. Post 1475 at earliest.

Yes the Portuguese with their supperior ships would of found a very different south east Asia but still able to establish themselves in Ceylon and India. They would of either traded with Chinese and their subject nations of aligned themselves with other nations who opposed the Chinese. That would take us to the end of the 16th century.

Now enter the Dutch and English who hungry for the riches of the east would of been able to array more power and forces against the Chinese.

All this time China has to continue investing huge amounts of money into the subject nations, naval fleet. Hoping that revenue from trade would of payed a large or all part of those costs. All of this was only possible with a huge physiological change in attitude by Chinese government and those in power towards Chinese merchants and sailors.

A huge task and one that one slip up and misguided decision bring about its collapse.

Look at the Portuguese, they lost to the Dutch due to over extensions, lack of personnel. Unfortunately they did not have access to a another group of people like the Norwegian sailors who made up a huge portion of VOC sailors. The Portuguese also suffered the huge loss of majority of its leadership including king in 1536 which led to disastrous Iberian union and destruction of huge portion of Portuguese fleet in the ill fated attempted Spanish invasion of England.

The Dutch also were able to sail to the Indian and East Indies because the Dutch spies stole the copies of the Portuguese maritime charts so they were not sailing there blindly.

So huge obstacles in Chinese ways both internally and externally.

OTL Ming China was able to win naval battles against European powers at the time, a maritime China will do much, much better.
 
OTL Ming China was able to win naval battles against European powers at the time, a maritime China will do much, much better.

The major naval battle for the Ming relevant to us was against the Dutch here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Liaoluo_Bay

Reading the article the Chinese ships are not as good but the Chinese were modernizing but it appears to be under a local commander, not court pressure.

It then makes an interesting point about Zheng Zhilong that "he had become one of the richest men in China, with his annual income estimated at three to four times that of the whole Dutch East India Company." so the money might be there for a Chinese East India Company.

The leadership of Zheng Zhilong who here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_Zhilong

is almost a free agent.
 
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