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Does not necessarily have to be the exact war of OTL. Just has to be a war that degrades japans efforts to dominate politics in Korea/Manchria for the next few decades. So the PoD by implication includes a better Chinese government or military of the moment.
What are the long term effects effects on the region for the next 2-5 decades? First I am guessing is a actually war between China and Russia as China works to retain & regain control against incisions into Manchuria. Second is China avoids or postpones the warlord era.