China Decisively Wins First Sino Japan War 1890s

Does not necessarily have to be the exact war of OTL. Just has to be a war that degrades japans efforts to dominate politics in Korea/Manchria for the next few decades. So the PoD by implication includes a better Chinese government or military of the moment.

What are the long term effects effects on the region for the next 2-5 decades? First I am guessing is a actually war between China and Russia as China works to retain & regain control against incisions into Manchuria. Second is China avoids or postpones the warlord era.
 
This isn't impossible even with the clusterf*ck known as the Qing Dynasty. Short term is the Eurocrats go "Well damn, they can fight", long term is you may be able to abort Japan's imperial ambitions, at least for a little while, with some effort you could get your equivalent to the Qing/themselves to shape up from the experience and realise they still have teeth etc which yeah, could lead to a war or five with Russia, GB, France, anyone else who wants "influence" in China really. Warlordism can be aborted simply by having the imperial government figure out its ducks, so to speak.
 
Well, the Sino-Japanese War was in 1894-5. If the Japanese were defeated quickly (i.e. not taking too many casualties), would they be able to hop in on the American side in the Spanish-American War (1898 IOTL, though it might change due to butterflies) and make a play for the Philippines? Do they even have the amphibious capability to do it?
 
Well, the Sino-Japanese War was in 1894-5. If the Japanese were defeated quickly (i.e. not taking too many casualties), would they be able to hop in on the American side in the Spanish-American War (1898 IOTL, though it might change due to butterflies) and make a play for the Philippines? Do they even have the amphibious capability to do it?

Could, tho if the defeat is not truly decisive they will be looking for Round II with China. To really seal their victory the Chinese need to ensure Japan packs it in with Korea.

Lacking Korea & Formosa Japan is really screwed & stuck in sticking with Britain as a client state, or searching for another patron.
 
This would butterfly away the Russo-Japanese War.

You might have Russia and Japan scheming together to undermine China in Manchuria and Korea.

It would also have huge consequences for Russia if the Revolution of 1905 doesn't occur.
 

raharris1973

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Japan will have to develop sources of pride in the first half of the 20th century other than militarism and navalism. They probably cannot get into the expansion game or be considered worthy great power allies unless decay or Russia or China or both occurs in a later period, like the 1910s or 1920s, and makes for opportunities.

A Japan losing a war with China in the 1890s or so is probably not in a position to contemplate a Philippines operation before the Americans take it (assuming the Span-Am war is on schedule). Even if the Span-Am War does not happen on schedule, the PI are likely to have won independence before 1910 and when Japan has built up the confidence and capability to make a play for the islands themselves.
 

Kaze

Banned
The victory would be short lived. It would let the Qing limp on - they might look onto their victory as a reason to reform their military to make sure the other powers do not take advantage of the Pyrrhic victory. Meanwhile, the Japanese would build for a second war, they will learn from their mistakes and make a second stab at China, Philippines, or if really bold go for Korea and the Russo-Japanese War.
 
China reasserts the status quo among the Asian powers and such victory (the first in over a century against a foreign power) can give the government enough credibility to woo regional warlords into their fold. That victory can be short-lived though as posters above said, China'll probably face Russia over disputes over Manchuria and Illi, though winnable it would be much harder for China to beat Russia than Japan did in 1905, though without the financial losses of Shimonoseki and the Boxers Protocol the Qing has a better breathing space for people like Guangxu to try to savage it.

Meanwhile, the Japanese would build for a second war, they will learn from their mistakes and make a second stab at China
Rebuild with which money? ITTL the modernization program proved to be a failure, the Chinese sank the nascent IJN to the bottom of the Yellow Sea and the Japanese Army would be crushed in Korea, all that dear tax payer money (that were heavily taxed for it) went to waste, plus reparations from China further stressing the already fragile Japanese economy. Japan wouldn't be able for round 2 for the next 2 decades or so.
 

Kaze

Banned
It only took Japan a few years between 1868 and 1894 to move from a Renaissance Era Nation into a Modernized Army and Navy. It took a lot of money, manpower, and bloodletting. It probably only take a few years to rebuild for another war. Japan would be able for Round Two in 1904 - it would be a toss up of whom they would attack. The problem would be the Japanese Diet - whether or not the politicians would give a green light for another failure. The politicians would probably deem to say wait a few more years, then a second bite after the next series of elections in 1905.
 
Hm.. Two different views in the last two posts. I'm wondering how much of the financing of Japans modern Army & Navy was seeded at the other end of the economy by investment money from British banks. Return on that investment depended on expansion into Korea and Manchuria if I am reading the books correctly. If that Japanese expansion is threatened by a reviving China would investors take counsel of their fears and reduce the loans to Japans business and government?
 
International observers widely expected China to win this war. Not because they felt the Chinese were any good but that they didn’t expect Japan to be much better, not enough to overcome their numerical inferiority anyways. Assuming the Japanese are just as competent in TTL, the Chinese would really have to improve by a huge margin to defeat Japan.

What this means is, Western military observers are going to be absolutely stunned by this war. Not only did the Japanese army and navy fight like a European one, but the Chinese gave as well as they took. That’s going to have serious political consequences.

Russia is going to take a hard look at their expansion plans in northeast Asia. China and Japan are both going to be courted by Western powers for alliances. Finally it should not be assumed Japan and China would remain on the path of conflict. Before the First Sino-Japanese War there were those on both sides that advocated a coalition against European imperialism. China’s crushing defeat in 1895 meant such a partnership held no value for Japan.
 

raharris1973

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With regard to the fate of the Philippines- If the Span-Am War had not happened, do you think the PI would still be Spanish in 1905, or 1910?

Or would they be more likely to be independent, or possibly German, by that point, instead of Spanish?
 
I doubt the Phillipinos would tolerate the Germans any more than the Spanish. It would look like a bad investment to me, even if the Germans could prevail by treating the Phillipinos like the Herros.
 
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