China completes its three year industrial plan

Let’s suppose that China successfully finished its three year plan

Either because Sino-German cooperation started earlier or because the second Sino-Japanese war started later

What impact would have in the Chinese war effort?

Could they realistically beat Japan, maybe retake Manchuria?

Or their best hope was to drag Japan to the negotiation table

Could the three year plan or a series of these have industrialized China in the same way that Stalin five year plans?
 
China's three year plan would end in 1939. I can't remember the details, but the plans would make China self sufficient in small arms, and give Chiang mass production of 75mm artillery. It would also have completed various railroads linking the interior. It would also allow production of utility vehicles, radios, and other basic electronics and automotive parts. There were also plans for China to have oil drills for local oil production, and to convert coal to oil. They would also have industrial plants so that China could begin making valued added materials for their tungsten and antimony raw materials that they shipped in export. This would allow them to receive more money. China would still be fairly weak industrially, but it would now be self-sufficient in many essentials for war, and the critical war industries set up in the interior far from the coast. The added rail lines would greatly improve Chinese logistics.

1939 would also see completion of many of the initial plans of the German trained military. Chiang would have 60 trained divisions (as opposed to 8 when the war started in 1939). China's navy would be partially modernized with a dozen German made submarines, torpedo boats, and a German cruiser plus coastal defenses. Plus the "Chinese Hindenburg Line" of defenses around Nanking would be fully manned and defended for two years (it had just been completed prior to OTL's war). The air force was planned to have Me 109s and Stuka dive bombers. Chiang wasn't happy with the air force in 1937 and had already made plans to reform them, but the war interrupted them.

China would still be militarily inferior to Japan, but would be much better prepared for war. Likely the Chinese could quickly eliminate the Japanese presence in Shanghai, and adequately defend the Yangtze Delta so that the Japanese could not defend a bridgehead there. The major battles would be taking place in the North China Plain. Worse case scenario is that China holds the Yellow River, but loses the north (Hebei, possibly Shanxi). But there is pretty good chance they win and stop the Japanese from conquering the north. However, I don't think the Republic of China would be capable in 1939 of retaking Manchuria. They'd likely need several more three year plans before they could be ready.

Politically, three extra years of peace would greatly help Chiang as well. Most likely the CCP would be eliminated as an independent armed force. The party might still exist in quasi-legal status (as did other non-KMT parties), but they'd have no independent army. The 8th Route Army and New 4th Army may exist on paper, but they'd be integrated into the ROC order of battle with KMT officers and supplies. Chiang would also have consolidated his power in Guangzhou (brought into the central government's authority only in 1936) and Sichuan. With sixty trained and modern divisions, the Central Army would be completely superior to any warlord force, and he'd likely bring additional provinces into his control (meaning they pay taxes to Nanking, and Chiang loyalists govern the place). Most likely this give Chiang control of Shandong and Shanxi, perhaps even Guangxi. This would bring in even more tax revenue plus bring the independent warlord forces under his control.

There would be also other benefits. Late 1937 was going to be the long delayed elections to the National Assembly. They were supposed to happen in 1936, but were delayed because of practical measures. I believe they were to be held in October, but the war interrupted them. Holding of the elections would have transitioned the government from a "provisional" status to a more legal permanent one. Nothing would have really changed, but it would have improved Chiang's prestige and legitimacy internally and with the international community.

So three extra years would mean a lot to China. So if the war starts later in 1939, then Japan does not do anywhere near as well if full blown war happens. If it doesn't, then Chiang succeeds in eliminating the warlords and rules all of China in name by 1942. After a third three year plan is made, I think China will be ready to advance its claims to Manchuria again. Of course, with Germany involved in WWII, China would need some other power to provide the machine tools and other equipment for these other three year plans (most likely the US, although it would take some fancy financing as the US - unlike Nazi Germany - handles its foreign trade very differently).

If for some reason the three year plan is moved up in time so that it is completed in 1936, there are a lot of questions for that scenario. Is only the three year plan done, but none of the modernization of the armed forces or political gains? If not, then China is still better positioned, but its army is still manhandled early on. However, there is a good chance that China can win the Battle of Wuhan and hold onto the port of Canton. This would put China in a much better position to hold out for the remainder of the war. Many of the shortages and inflation China experienced in 1943-1945 would not happen, and Chiang would be in a much better position to win the Civil War.
 
I do not know as much as i would want to about China prior to WW2, so the above post is very interesting. However, if everything else is pretty much like OTL i kinda doubt the germans will fullfil large contracts like for Bf-109 and Ju-87 by 1939, maybe even the subs, given their own rearmament needs. But perhaps if they remain on good terms with Germany and Italy they might get some He-112 and Fiat BR-20 and some other types, instead of Japan. Besides, how about the Tripartite Pact, what was China offering the germans btw for all those weapons and assistance, could they entice the germans away from Japan? How about the USSR, could they get stuff from them too perhaps? Anyway, once WW2 starts, they will be practically cut off from the germans i would think. Where all this leaves the americans i don't know, but money talks, they happily sold to Japan, if the chinese have the cash they will sell them too alongside the germans, italians, soviets etc.

Another interesting option as far as rearming the air force goes, is imo a large contract with Fokker for licence production of the D-XXI and G1, primary reason being that their mixed construction would make them more palatable to the still embrionic chinese aeronautical industry. The D-XXI could fight well with anything the japanese had until the A6M and Ki-43, while the G1 would be a formidable fighter-bomber.

However thing is this would be a kind of vicious circle, if China starts it's rearmament earlier in the 1930s the japanese might feel compelled to attack earlier, while for the japanese attack to be delayed to 1939, how could that be reasonably achieved? They would attack a significantly stronger China while having watched it getting stronger until 1939 for some reason.

Another aspect is, if the japanese encounter much harder resistance in China and suffer significant setbacks, they might be compelled to seat at the table with a China in a strong position, BUT any sort of armistice (even temporary) would free japanese forces for the upcoming Pacific war, if they will still go in that direction. Plus harder chinese resistance in the air and on the ground might make them draw more useful and less mistaken lessons from that, which might make them a harder nut to crack in WW2. Also, probably unlikely the chinese will jump against Japan in 1942 (seeing the initial success against the americans and british), they will probably wait until it's clear they head for defeat in 1944 (and after getting enough Lend-Lease and concessions from the americans).
 
Thanks for the replies.
Amazing what just a few years would have made for China
Even if they can't retake manchuria I think keeping japan out of China proper by itself its a victory considering how the war went in OTL.
I agree that imperial Japan will not just going to sit and watch its intended target getting stronger sooner, or later the junior officials would have fabricated an incident.But if China completes at least one three year plan, and has its 60 German trained division things will be different.
I could see two PODS
1- If Chiang gets really lucky the Kodaha faction tries its luck and launch an atack against the soviet union which escaletes into a full scale war this would leave china pleanty of time to develop unmolested.
2- Perhaps if China wins rapid overwhelming battles causing massive casualities similar to the battle of khalkhin go japan will back off.
 

trurle

Banned
If China is able to complete 3-years industrialization plan, it likely mean no Marco Polo incident. And by late 1939 the general process of "tightening nuts" in Japanese army would also be in very advanced state, depending on exact situation in alternative Japanese-Soviet border war. I personally think what war with Japan delayed to 1939 is the cancelled Sino-Japanese war. Japanese are likely to push for some peace settlement, may be even surrendering small parts of Manchuria (not much, Japanese leaders grabbing reflex was too strong). Or may be even secret Chinese-Japanese alliance to expel Russians from Xinjiang province (and may be for partition of Soviet Union). Southern Strike strategy would be meaningless for Japanese in these conditions, so most likely is very messy position of China and Japan in upcoming WWII - fighting Soviet Union, but not as the part of Axis invasion. It resembles the OTL position of Finland.
 
I do not know as much as i would want to about China prior to WW2, so the above post is very interesting. However, if everything else is pretty much like OTL i kinda doubt the germans will fullfil large contracts like for Bf-109 and Ju-87 by 1939, maybe even the subs, given their own rearmament needs.

This was already part of the approved plans between China and Germany. It was going to happen if the war had not intervened. The Chinese were providing raw tungsten for Germany's industries, and this was an essential raw material. If the German's don't fulfill their end of the bargain, they don't get the tungsten (among other commodities they needed which China provided). Tungsten was critical to the German war industry. Because Hitler did not allow currency to leave the country, he needed arranged trading where Germany paid in manufactured items for any raw materials the country needed.

These would likely not be considered "large contracts". I think the submarines were going to 8 units of the Type IIb (which the Germans used as trainers). Two were actually built (U-120 and U-121) in 1937 with eighty Chinese in Germany training, but since they could not be delivered upon start of the Sino-Japanese War the Germans took over these subs and cancelled the rest of the order. I think the Me-109s and Stukas were going to be several squadrons each plus a Junkers plant set up in China (for kit assembly).

Besides, how about the Tripartite Pact, what was China offering the germans btw for all those weapons and assistance, could they entice the germans away from Japan?

China was an export market for Germany. Chinese preferred Germany as a trading partner because after WWI it was the only great power that didn't have any colonies or concessions in China. China was Germany's third largest trading partner. China also provided Germany with a lot of important raw materials like tungsten and antimony. This was all detailed in various Sino-German trade agreements. In the early and mid thirties there was extensive Sino-German cooperation. Chiang Kai-Shek's adopted son Wei-kuo was actually a cadet at a German military academy in Munich even after the Sino-Japanese War and commanded a tank sent to Austria during the Ancschluss. Germany did not want a Sino-Japanese War and did everything it could to mediate between the two countries.
 
Thank you for the input Blackfox, i learned a bit more. Perhaps Trurle is right in that if the war is postponed until 1939 there might be no war at all, at least not by Japan attacking China, on the other hand Chiang might feel strong enough to try to take Manchuria back.

On the other hand, if China is stronger in 1937 by a starting the industrialization program earlier, like outlined above the japanese would advance nowhere near as far as they did OTL and with much higher casualties, so they might be forced to the negotiations table by 1938.
 
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