Max, please read my post again. I think you'll agree that I clearly intended it as satire.
China Balkanizes
- Thread starter JimmyJimJam
- Start date
Max, please read my post again. I think you'll agree that I clearly intended it as satire.
Germany lacks the frequent civil wars, and large scale geographic positions that China possesses (sp?) Not entirely impossible but the difference is that China has a long standing history of such collapses.
History is full of old things happening in new ways.
I wouldn't be so sure. China has a habit of being... secretive of such matters.
So you are saying that Germany collapsing is likely? I'll let Max deal with you, if he can be bothered to answer that.
...this is your evidence that it will happen again? Because it happened before? So, when is Sweden going to invade Poland next?
This is nonsense, for simple reason that you got the newest figure (74,000 protests) FROM Chinese government. If they wanted to say nothing of it, we'll not hear a whiff of it. Sure we'll learn about the bigger ones, and perhaps form an estimate, but to come up with such detailed statistics from outside China? There was a reason why that figure came as a surprise to the Western press, you know, and it wasn't because it was unexpectedly low. Moreover, CHina is a major trade country in the world, with materials and manufacturing coming from each part of the country, to say nothing of its own food and labour movements.. to say that Chinese rural infrastrcuture is paralyzed and we don't know about it is sheer fantasy.
Susano
Banned
Still, the different chinese languages could form a national focus. IMO, thats about the only way for a lasting chinese disunity: That the southern Han groups break away from the Mandarine and see themselves as own nations. But even then, the Mandarine Han are still the majority of China, so it wouldnt be so much a balkanisation as rather outer parts seceding from China.
In my Afrikaner Superpower TL, I have China being split for about 120 years between the Qing dynasty (North China, Manchuria, Mongolia), and the Taiping (South China). The Taiping win b/c the Afrikaners sell them advanced arms and assassinate one of the more effective Qing generals.
Afte the Mongolians succesfully rebel, the Qing fall and a native dynasty called the Yung take over. A weak Taiping ruler and growing nationalism in the South enable the Yung to overthrow the Taiping and reunify China sometime in the 1970s.
Of course, the POD to get that scenario in place takes place during the Dutch War of Independence in the 1550s, so it's a bit more complicated than just "Chinese Civil War."
However, the Taiping could have stayed on the defensive in the most anti-Manchu regions of the South and not launched the (failed) offensives into the north. This could split China between Qing and Taiping, at least temporarily.
Afte the Mongolians succesfully rebel, the Qing fall and a native dynasty called the Yung take over. A weak Taiping ruler and growing nationalism in the South enable the Yung to overthrow the Taiping and reunify China sometime in the 1970s.
Of course, the POD to get that scenario in place takes place during the Dutch War of Independence in the 1550s, so it's a bit more complicated than just "Chinese Civil War."
However, the Taiping could have stayed on the defensive in the most anti-Manchu regions of the South and not launched the (failed) offensives into the north. This could split China between Qing and Taiping, at least temporarily.
No, I simply stated that it wasn't impossible. A big difference you'll agree.
Next Thursday
Seriously though, once a precedent has been set, it's much easier to follow. History repeats itself to an almost shocking degree and just because the World has changed by any amount, it still doesn't eliminate the possibility of something happening.I didn't mean the entire Chinese infrastructure. I meant the various protests, civil disobedience and riots against the government. Those figures you state are ones that China released. How many disturnbances do you think happen that aren't broadcast to the World?
regardless of whther history is cyclical or linear, some events will repeat though somewhat different in degree, duration, etc.
Will China break up sometime in the future? yes. Will it then unite? yes.
Will China break up sometime in the future? yes. Will it then unite? yes.
Question: is this asking about a Chinese break-up starting anytime post-1900 and resulting in a Balkanized China today? Plenty of possibilities in that.
I interpreted it as being about a late-20th C to present-day- or are you including a future POD?
Very unlikely, but-Tiananmen? The sight of all those protestors reminds Deng Xiaoping so much of the Cultural Revolution that he keels over with a stroke.
The hard-liners still have most of the control, but those advocating a more moderate approach-Zhao Ziyang and co.- are strengthened by this, especially as the old guys try to cover it up.
The moderates are able to get the news out, and wild rumors fly- Deng has been murdered, arrested, there's a coup... demands grow in Beijing and Shanghai for Deng to appear. Protests grow larger and spread to more areas- the authorities crack down in less visible places, but news leaks out- wilder and wilder accusations are flung.
Finally, the hammer comes down in Beijing- the hard-liners bring in the 27th and 28th armies, the locally based 38th Army comes to the defense of the protestors, civil war erupts, in Shanghai and Guangdong the Party leadership splits- some declare for the reformers, denouncing the "New Gang of Seven" - the "Eight Immortals" minus Deng. PLA units turn on each other....
Not likely,but....
I interpreted it as being about a late-20th C to present-day- or are you including a future POD?
Very unlikely, but-Tiananmen? The sight of all those protestors reminds Deng Xiaoping so much of the Cultural Revolution that he keels over with a stroke.
The hard-liners still have most of the control, but those advocating a more moderate approach-Zhao Ziyang and co.- are strengthened by this, especially as the old guys try to cover it up.
The moderates are able to get the news out, and wild rumors fly- Deng has been murdered, arrested, there's a coup... demands grow in Beijing and Shanghai for Deng to appear. Protests grow larger and spread to more areas- the authorities crack down in less visible places, but news leaks out- wilder and wilder accusations are flung.
Finally, the hammer comes down in Beijing- the hard-liners bring in the 27th and 28th armies, the locally based 38th Army comes to the defense of the protestors, civil war erupts, in Shanghai and Guangdong the Party leadership splits- some declare for the reformers, denouncing the "New Gang of Seven" - the "Eight Immortals" minus Deng. PLA units turn on each other....
Not likely,but....
Of course, nationality and language are major causes for unity or separation. But so is ideology. Germany was divided for 40 years, actually most people didn't believe in reunification anymore. Actually, many people today think that it wasn't that good at all...
Even better example: Korea. When do you think they will reunite? Do you think that South Koreans are eager to reunite with their north korean brothers, who starve on famines rather then have problems wth excessive computer game play?
Right now, I don't see any split in china for the next say 30 years to happen. Economic development reaches pretty much every bigger city now. But a breakup within the 20. Century? Of course possible:
Kuomintang - Communist: Kuomintang can hold some continental provinces, thanks to american help, but can't retake the whole of china thanks to Soviet help: pro western North-China against communist North China.
Imperial China with some general as empire against chinese republic under sun yat-sen.
POD After Mao: traditional Maoist china under the band of five against "modern" communist China under Deng Xiaoping.
All those states would try to get reunification - as Germany, Korea, Jemen and Vietnam did. But as soon as foreign interest and economic interest and ideological fanatism comes in, it wouldn't be possible for at least some years.
Even better example: Korea. When do you think they will reunite? Do you think that South Koreans are eager to reunite with their north korean brothers, who starve on famines rather then have problems wth excessive computer game play?
Right now, I don't see any split in china for the next say 30 years to happen. Economic development reaches pretty much every bigger city now. But a breakup within the 20. Century? Of course possible:
Kuomintang - Communist: Kuomintang can hold some continental provinces, thanks to american help, but can't retake the whole of china thanks to Soviet help: pro western North-China against communist North China.
Imperial China with some general as empire against chinese republic under sun yat-sen.
POD After Mao: traditional Maoist china under the band of five against "modern" communist China under Deng Xiaoping.
All those states would try to get reunification - as Germany, Korea, Jemen and Vietnam did. But as soon as foreign interest and economic interest and ideological fanatism comes in, it wouldn't be possible for at least some years.
How do we get a larger Macau or a larger Hong Kong? Macanese and Hongkongese identities are strongly established and distinct from mainland Chinese ones. I really don't think there's a significant polity on the mainland that either could join with. Also, as a result of colonialism and western influences, each is culturally and politically quite different from Mainland China.
Manchu culture is slowly fading away and dying; a vast majority in that region are Han now; most Manchus probably can't even speak the Manchu language now.
How does Kashmir take a large part of China?
I have a word to address this question : technology.
As communication technology , transportation and governance methods advances, larger nations can attain more stability . Without the Railroad , America would have been hardpress to control a swarthe of land from one end of a continent to another .
Similarly , provided that there's sufficient political stability , the balkanisation of any major nation is rather unlikely short of prolonged political turmoil and soceital collapse .
When shipping troops from one end of a nation to another takes mere weeks at most , the capability of a nation to hold on to territory is a matter of manpower and political will .- So , the only way for China to permemantly Balkanise is for a catacylsm on the order of a nuclear war .
As communication technology , transportation and governance methods advances, larger nations can attain more stability . Without the Railroad , America would have been hardpress to control a swarthe of land from one end of a continent to another .
Similarly , provided that there's sufficient political stability , the balkanisation of any major nation is rather unlikely short of prolonged political turmoil and soceital collapse .
When shipping troops from one end of a nation to another takes mere weeks at most , the capability of a nation to hold on to territory is a matter of manpower and political will .- So , the only way for China to permemantly Balkanise is for a catacylsm on the order of a nuclear war .
Yes,
1) Taiwan - Taipei
2) Manchuria - Harbin or Mudken
3) North China - Beijing
4) Southern China - Shanghai
5) Xijiang/Chinese Turkmenistan - Urumqi
6) Tibet - Lhasa
7) Central China - Chongqing
8) Hong Kong
9) Macau
Easily done with a civil war with Red China/North and White China/South that spins out of control. 1 never reintegrates, 4 secedes while 5, 6, 8, and 9 do the same. Eventually the war ends in the favor of the White Chinese and the Reds are split into 2, 3, and 7 to prevent them from becoming powerful again. Asia breathes a sigh of relief and Russia, Japan, and the US move in to influence the various states.
1) Taiwan - Taipei
2) Manchuria - Harbin or Mudken
3) North China - Beijing
4) Southern China - Shanghai
5) Xijiang/Chinese Turkmenistan - Urumqi
6) Tibet - Lhasa
7) Central China - Chongqing
8) Hong Kong
9) Macau
Easily done with a civil war with Red China/North and White China/South that spins out of control. 1 never reintegrates, 4 secedes while 5, 6, 8, and 9 do the same. Eventually the war ends in the favor of the White Chinese and the Reds are split into 2, 3, and 7 to prevent them from becoming powerful again. Asia breathes a sigh of relief and Russia, Japan, and the US move in to influence the various states.
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Imagine my surprise to see THIS thread get resurrected. Imagine further my surprise at someone rehashing the same 'idea' which had been thoroughly shot down previously. Imagine my yet further surprise at the almost brainless divisions which has more in common with throwing dice and picking out random province than any actual geopolitical considerations.
In short, try not to talk too much. It removes all doubt.
For an Independent Manchuria, you would at least need a POD before 1945, and probably well before that. A north/south split is a concievable outcome of the GMD/CCP Civil War, but only if either Chiang or Mao is out of the picture. In this scenario, I'd guess Tibet would stay independent, and maybe Xinjiang might break off or become a Soviet satellite. With some legal manuevering, Hong Kong or Macau could become independent states.
KunlunShan
Banned
China historically has had occasional political divisions, but little conflicts over ethinicity or religion. I can see a civil war happening in a few years maybe, given the political instabilty of the CCP, but to have China suddenly break apart at this time doesn't seem plausible.
Sorry for the old post. I hope that this doesnt cause too much trouble.
What about Inner Mongolia? Or are they part of your North China? Could you see a Hong Kong/Macau confederation?
assez-big necromancy.
but Inner Mongolia is now predominantly Han / something else Chinese and not Mongol, so they would not be an independent state I don't think.