China and a surviving USSR: WI a world with two *communist* superpowers?

[Thanksforallthefish]

China is, by many if not most analysis, destined to become a superpower this century, comparable to the US. For a period between 1991 and a debatable date, the US was considered the only remaining superpower, with the USSR falling from its former ideological, symbolic, and of course material position as such.

But what if the USSR survived AND China underwent the reforms that propelled it to its current status? At a glance, we would have a world with 3 superpowers, a capitalist USA, and a communist USSR and China.

And yes, I know China isn't communist nor socialist. Neither was the USSR by most opinions and that's why the asterisks. I'm mostly focusing on how the world would percieve it. Consider the following: 1) China still retains a self-proclaimed communist party leading it in a single party-system, 2) despite capitalists reforms, China is still a planned economy at its highest levels with most large enterprises state-owned and controlled, and 3) while most socialists and communists would disagree, the CCP still self-proclaims as a Marxist-party. Likewise, I'm talking about a surviving USSR that still considers itself Marxist in rethoric regardless of reforms (or not) undertaken. So to many people, they would still be Communists.

Now suppose the USSR survives until today with Chinese-style reforms, a hardliner ossified system or a succesful democratic transition but still keeping socialist rethoric and policies; in any case, it remains a mostly united global superpower with worldwide clout. I am assuming this USSR would not compete or butterfly away the success of China.

What would the world think about both the USSR and China, both self-proclaimed Marxist states, being superpowers in competition with the USA? How would geopolitics be in such a scenario? What would the USSR-China relationship be like? What would be the cultural effects of having two self-proclaimed Marxist states as open challengers to the liberal democracy model instead of the short-lived consensus of the 90s?

Of course this WI will change depending on if the USSR is a reclused hardline dictatorship, a state capitalist model like China, a succesful democracy with socialist elements, or something in between. But still, the optics to the common man in the street would be starking; entering the new millenium, there are now two communist superpowers and one capitalist one.

 

[Tjakari]

Power Dynamics might be more stable.
A large part of what made the 90s and early 00s so tumultuous was the understanding on the part of US leadership believing they now had a free hand in the world.

With a functioning USSR, the US is bound to be a trifle less brazen.

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

Power Dynamics might be more stable.
A large part of what made the 90s and early 00s so tumultuous was the understanding on the part of US leadership believing they now had a free hand in the world.

With a functioning USSR, the US is bound to be a trifle less brazen.

True. I can't imagine the invasion of Iraq happening in this world. Though on the other hand, cold-war style black ops such as coups, guerrilla warfare, 'diplomatic' pressures, 'minor' interventions, etc. in the third world might be way more common in the face of each power having two more rivals.

Any more thoughts?

 

[Richard V]

Firstly HOW does USSR become an economic powerhouse? It’s been 30 years and Russia is still a petrostate. Add up all the former Soviet republics and you get a GDP smaller than France. China had an export led economy for decades and spent less on defense than Taiwan at one point. AS far as I can see the only way the Soviets could do that is to dismantle the Warsaw Pact, unilaterally disarm and become buddies with America.

But lets say, hand wave, the Soviets turn the WP into an efficient state capitalist EU. Soviets developed advanced nuclear energy, highly profitable pharmaceutical and agricultural exports. You’re still talking about an economy the size of Germany. So really the best they can hope for is being a 4th rate economy.

The superpower rivalry of the Cold War is based on the assumption that the Soviets were a peer rival. Soviet leaders believed they will win that race in the long run and their people were willing to put up with medium term hardship of high defense spending. If it becomes clear they are not going to win the rationale of the competition falls apart. Communism will soon be ditched because it hampers economic growth and because the state need the Orthodox church to bring cohesion to what is essentially the Russian Empire 2.0

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

Firstly HOW does USSR become an economic powerhouse? It’s been 30 years and Russia is still a petrostate. Add up all the former Soviet republics and you get a GDP smaller than France. China had an export led economy for decades and spent less on defense than Taiwan at one point. AS far as I can see the only way the Soviets could do that is to dismantle the Warsaw Pact, unilaterally disarm and become buddies with America.

But lets say, hand wave, the Soviets turn the WP into an efficient state capitalist EU. Soviets developed advanced nuclear energy, highly profitable pharmaceutical and agricultural exports. You’re still talking about an economy the size of Germany. So really the best they can hope for is being a 4th rate economy.

The superpower rivalry of the Cold War is based on the assumption that the Soviets were a peer rival. Soviet leaders believed they will win that race in the long run and their people were willing to put up with medium term hardship of high defense spending. If it becomes clear they are not going to win the rationale of the competition falls apart. Communism will soon be ditched because it hampers economic growth and because the state need the Orthodox church to bring cohesion to what is essentially the Russian Empire 2.0

Are you comparing modern GDPs? Because before the Soviet collapse in the 1990s it still had the second largest GDP, only surpassed by Japan right before:

As said in another thread about Soviet survival, most countries didn't recover their former GDP until decades after the fact. For Russia, it took over a decade to be back at 1990 levels.

And still, a German or Japan-sized GDP is nothing to sneeze at, and both nations while US allies could easily compete with it in other historical circumstances. The USSR in this scenario would remain an ideological and geopolitical rival to the US, and with a larger economy and military than modern Russia. I'm adding China to the mix.

I also disagree that the only way to accomplish this would be an unilateral disarmament and such, but I did leave open how would a Soviet Union survive to the present day.

 

[Richard V]

Are you comparing modern GDPs? Because before the Soviet collapse in the 1990s it still had the second largest GDP, only surpassed by Japan right before:

As said in another thread about Soviet survival, most countries didn't recover their former GDP until decades after the fact. For Russia, it took over a decade to be back at 1990 levels.

And still, a German or Japan-sized GDP is nothing to sneeze at, and both nations while US allies could easily compete with it in other historical circumstances. The USSR in this scenario would remain an ideological and geopolitical rival to the US, and with a larger economy and military than modern Russia. I'm adding China to the mix.

I also disagree that the only way to accomplish this would be an unilateral disarmament and such, but I did leave open how would a Soviet Union survive to the present day.

I’m talking about how big the Soviet economy would be today in 2021. They only way they could be in a 3 way tie economically is to disarm and have an export led economy. If they stay confrontational and manage to develop internally I would say a German size economy is possible, a Japan size economy is doubtful tbh.

But this will lead to a down grade of expectations by their people of their role in the world. I don’t see how they could hold on to the WP.

 

[Sarthak]

I’m talking about how big the Soviet economy would be today in 2021. They only way they could be in a 3 way tie economically is to disarm and have an export led economy. If they stay confrontational and manage to develop internally I would say a German size economy is possible, a Japan size economy is doubtful tbh.

But this will lead to a down grade of expectations by their people of their role in the world. I don’t see how they could hold on to the WP.

Soviet industries and firms were linked together with the state and through sub level market economics. When the state collapsed firms found themselves in different countries with their funding cut and their customer base ballooned up. The firms collapsed as a result. As a result of the firm's collapsing the country:s economies contracted. Merely having the USSR survive means a higher PCI and GDP by default.

 

[durante]

A surviving USSR means continuing socialist regimes throughout much of the third world. IOTL Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, R Congo, Benin, Angola, Mozambique and Madagascar,and Cambodia, Afghanistan all abandoned socialist governments when the USSR collapsed.

Would a pink tide be allowed to happen in this world? Agreed the War on Terror would be a more dangerous game for the Americans to play.

Probably NATO doesnt expand; maybe the Eastern European states stay under the Soviet thumb as well.

 

[Johnrankins]

Are you comparing modern GDPs? Because before the Soviet collapse in the 1990s it still had the second largest GDP, only surpassed by Japan right before:

View attachment 616894

As said in another thread about Soviet survival, most countries didn't recover their former GDP until decades after the fact. For Russia, it took over a decade to be back at 1990 levels.

And still, a German or Japan-sized GDP is nothing to sneeze at, and both nations while US allies could easily compete with it in other historical circumstances. The USSR in this scenario would remain an ideological and geopolitical rival to the US, and with a larger economy and military than modern Russia. I'm adding China to the mix.

I also disagree that the only way to accomplish this would be an unilateral disarmament and such, but I did leave open how would a Soviet Union survive to the present day.

Soviet GDP was grossly inflated. It was in the interest of both superpowers. The USSR could state it was the 2nd largest economy in the world and the US could justify higher military spending. They made mostly "Goodwill quality" products.

When Eastern Europe collapsed the people there whined they were getting pennies on the dollar. The fact is they were being paid what it was worth. No one was going to spend good money on poorly maintained factories with obsolete machine tools supported by antiquated infrastructure making unreliable products that could have been made in the US in the 1950's. Adjusting for that pushes Soviet GDP way down.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Depends on how you get your surviving USSR:
A USSR that simply kept a lid on its reform movement is vastly different from a USSR that economic reforms but no political reforms, which is vastly different from a Union of Sovereign States, which is vastly different from a USSR that never underwent OTL's period of stagnation.