Chilean-American War in the 1880's or 90's?

What could have caused the conflict over the separation of Panama or the Baltimore Incident to escalate to a full fledged war? How evenly are the two forces matched and who would win? Chile had was on the verge/just come out of a Civil War, How far will the US go before it stops and could the US add another lone-star-nation to the Union?
 
When The US Separated Panama from Columbia in 1885 they occupied the city of Colon on the Caribbean side of the Isthmus. Likewise Chile dispatched the Cruiser Esmeralda to Panama City to the Pacific side. Esmeralda's Captain was ordered to "Stop by any means, the annexation of Panama by the United States." He obviously did not; though, Chile did have the strongest Navy in the Americas at that time.
 

katchen

Banned
Why would the US occupy Colon in 1885? At that time Nicaragua still had the inside track as the most attractive location for a Pacific canal, since to my knowledge that Nicaraguan volcano had not erupted yet.
Could Chile have unified the Andean countries the way Prussia did Germany starting with the Nitrate War in 1870 and annexing Bolivia and Peru, then on to Ecuador and Colombia? Then Central America by 1885? If Great Britain did not intervene, I'm pretty sure Chile could have pulled off the first part of it if she consolidated her power by extending a railroad or two from Santiago north to the Ecuador border before going any further. Once THAT Chile got say, as far as Nicaragua, let alone the Guatemala-Mexico border, the US might become worried enough to take military action if it became clear that the UK wouldn't.
 
If a war broke out, I think several things could happen:

-USA annexes Panama as revenge for Chile starting a war to prevent that goal.
-Chile does well in the beginning but is eventually overwhelmed by American industrial power.
-The Chilean-American War will heal the wounds of the Civil War rather than the Spanish-American War.
-USA annexes Easter Island and the Juan Fernandez Islands to reduce Chile's influence in the Pacific.
-Peru and Bolivia may join the USA to get their revenge on Chile.
-Chile becomes much poorer and weaker nation.

Agree or disagree?
 

katchen

Banned
I think that the first thing that you need to do is to factor in the results of the Nitrate War of 1870-1873. It was Chile's victory over Peru and Bolivia in the Nitrate War and Chile's cornering of the Nitrate market (nitrates are critical for fertilizer but also for explosives and munitions) that is the reason Chile can AFFORD the Western Hemisphere's largest navy.
Spain almost intervened in the Nitrate War but the UK warned Spain off. If the US attacks Chile, because of Chile being so critical to the world economy, doing so is likely to be the 19th Century equivalent of Iran attacking Saudi Arabia--whatever the provocation
And if Chile does get Panama (and likely the Choco to boot) which European power will be building the new canal? France? Germany? Answer that and you answer the question of which power is REALLY challenging the US and UK.
Martin
 
If a war broke out, I think several things could happen:

-USA annexes Panama as revenge for Chile starting a war to prevent that goal.

Panama was Columbian at that point, so USA would have to fight Columbia as well.

-Chile does well in the beginning but is eventually overwhelmed by American industrial power.

You realise that before 1890's USA had no real navy to speak of? And no experience in building modern warships? It would take a better part of a decade for US industrial strength to be felt.

It's starting to sound like Russo-Japanese War, with USA playing Russia...
 
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