Well, Elisabeth can very well marry don Carlos (as was planned) and Henry II dying for the same accident in the same tournament as celebrations for a wedding between Elisabeth and don Carlos would be comparable to the OTL ones. The thing who change most is Calais, who at this point is less interesting for France than OTL (as ATL Calais instead of being the last continental possession of England would be at the border of them).
Well, they did occupy Calais in the previous post, but of course there is always the chance of getting it back later. Especially after Philip the younger's potential inheritance. Or even restored in a peace treaty if there is enough reason to. I had them take it because, I mean, England still has the whole bad weather with failed harvests and weakened but recovering economy going on, which Mary even IOTL was warned about. So there was really no stopping it. The weather can't really be butterflied. I wish there was a record of the weather consistency during this time though, so I could know specifically when to mention it started improving.
Obviously yes Mary would have an easier time if this were a "Henry VIII accepted not having a son" (Difficulty: Nigh Impossible) or a "Henry VIII & Catherine of Aragon's son lived" TL....but alas, it's not. Time travel would be ASB so just gotta keep trucking through the unfavorable weather.