Chiang Kai-shek is killed during the Xi'an Incident

In the long run, not having Chiang in place will lead to the KMT being even more fractured, making it susceptible both to Japanese influence and communist infiltration. The most obvious scenario would be transfer of power in the KMT to Chiang's close (and decidedly anti-communist) generals in the immediate aftermath of his death, continuation of the civil war with the CCP, and delay in the outbreak of total war against Japan. There is a small chance that Nationalist China would ally with the Japanese Army, or at least come to some kind of unequal agreement with regards to Manchuria and North China.
 
Could Wang Jingwei take power
No, he had been sidelined by 1936. It was pretty clearly rule of the generals by then.

There is a small chance that Nationalist China would ally with the Japanese Army, or at least come to some kind of unequal agreement with regards to Manchuria and North China.
I don't think so. Chinese public opinion was massively against Japan, and it would have been politically unfeasible for any Chinese leader to openly align with Japan, or even allow them to operate relatively unhindered. The Xi'an Incident itself is instructive in this regard, since it was specifically for the purpose of opposing Japanese expansionism within China. It might have been possible for something like this to happen in the 1920s, but by 1936 that ship had long since sailed.
 
An old post of mine:

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The best POD for a pro-Japanese government of China would be for Chiang Kai-shek to be killed during the Xi'an Incident--which came close to happening:

"Just before the attack at Lintong, Zhuang Xueliang had cabled Mao that he was about to act. Mao told his secretary, 'There will be good news in the morning.' At noon the next day a radioman rushed into Mao's cave and handed him an urgent message from Zhang Xueliang. One by one the CCP leaders hurried into the leader's primitive headquarters to hear the news. When Mao read out the news, the cave echoed with excited laughter and gleeful voices. Zhu De, Zhang Guotao, and others wanted to see Chiang and his fellow KMT generals killed immediately. Mao, 'laughing like mad,' felt the same way. Nonetheless, he immediately sought guidance from Moscow, proposing that Chiang be delivered for trial by 'the people.' Then the Chairman sent obsequious messages to the Young Marshal, calling him the 'national leader in resisting Japan,' extolling his 'world-shaking moves,' and hinting that he should deal with Chiang 'resolutely.'

"News of the kidnapping reached Moscow a few hours later, but unlike Mao, Stalin did not laugh; instead, he immediately saw that the event could be disastrous for the Soviet Union. The next day the Comintern received Chen Lifu's message and very likely read reports that He Yingqin had ordered Central Army divisions--probably the elite units--to move toward Xi'an and also had urged Wang Jingwei to rush home [from Europe--where incidentally he met with Hitler and discussed China joining the Anti-Comintern Pact-- DT]. The possibility suddenly loomed that the Generalissimo would be killed and Wang and He would establish a pro-Japanese government. Stalin sent a flash message to Mao telling him in no uncertain terms that the Soviet Union disapproved of the 'plot'--and suggesting that it was being staged by the Japanese. He ordered Mao to hold friendly talks with Chiang, find a peaceful solution, and release the KMT leader. In response to Stalin's orders, on December 15 a public telegram signed by Mao, Zhou [Enlai], and Zhu announced that the CCP stood for a peaceful solution of the 'Xi'an incident' and that any hasty moves would 'only delight the Japanese.'..." https://books.google.com/books?id=DUg2KGMQWHQC&pg=PA129

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I would add to that post that Yes, of course a pro-Japanese government headed by Wang and He would be unpopular. But its opposition would be split between the CCP and various factions of the GMD, so it might not be that easy to overthrow...
 
No, he had been sidelined by 1936. It was pretty clearly rule of the generals by then.

One of said generals seems to have been pretty friendly to Wang at the time: "However, He strongly supported the need to solve this incident by force and was voted as acting commander to lead the KMT armies to the rescue of Chiang with the support of young and extremist officers of the BSS. He also contacted Wang Jingwei and asked him back to China to take charge of the KMT, and sent two armies marching to Xi'an to fight against Zhang's army..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Yingqin
 
No idea, but maybe Sun Fo or T. V. Soong, respectively Vice Chairman and Premier under Chiang could take over?
 
I don't think so. Chinese public opinion was massively against Japan, and it would have been politically unfeasible for any Chinese leader to openly align with Japan, or even allow them to operate relatively unhindered. The Xi'an Incident itself is instructive in this regard, since it was specifically for the purpose of opposing Japanese expansionism within China. It might have been possible for something like this to happen in the 1920s, but by 1936 that ship had long since sailed.
The way the Japanese were expanding throughout China wasn't just through walking in and taking over, but in great measure relied on using their connections with the great number of opportunists who occupied powerful positions in China at the time. The warlord era was by no means over in the 1930s, but Chiang Kai-shek was making good progress in consolidating power and forcing other holders of power to listen to him and pledge loyalty to his nationbuilding program.

Without Chiang many of these cliques and their leaders could fall into Japan's orbit easily, since Japan had been playing the same game of buying off and protecting Chinese warlords, in order to further their imperialist policies. The warlords, apart from the communists (who have a different power generation model), would not care about popular opinion, they'd care about receiving support from the IJA to get a leg up against their local rivals.
 
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