Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

CCA · Sep 30, 2014

zeppelinair · Sep 30, 2014

Amazing posts, amazing TL.
Don't know what to say, really, except congrats. I now realise how hard it is to make timelines, much harder with multiple ones..

06294086 · Sep 30, 2014

CCA said:
...
And the Jews are just being deported to Kashgar for processing, before they're integrated to the rest of China. Their skilled labour is very much in demand in the factories in need of them.
...

Yep, if Germany have no need for extra brainpower then China will be happy to have it

doorcf · Sep 30, 2014

wow dude your work really shows

Lucius Verus · Sep 30, 2014

Wow I didn't realize that this was back. Quite a pleasure to read back then, looking forward to reading more.

justiyt · Oct 1, 2014

Thanks for the table of contents!

CV12Hornet · Oct 1, 2014

Getting Turkey on board might be the best thing to happen for the Axis all year. OTL Germany suffered serious problems with a lack of high-strength steel alloys due to a shortage of chromium, as the Allies were buying up all the chrome on the market. The biggest neutral supplier? Turkey. At a stroke you have vastly reduced one of the Nazi's biggest OTL logistical issues.

CCA · Oct 1, 2014

The Asian Front: 1941

Overall overview:
In comparison to the more fluid European Theater, the Asian Front remained a mostly static one. The war was very similar to that of the First Great War, lines of opposing trenches with the monotony of trench warfare being broken up by the occasional trench raid, artillery duel and naval bombardment. In fact, the only thing that would've looked out of place in a First Great War scene would've been the drone of low-flying aircraft on occasional air-to-ground sorties.

At the end of 1941, China had officially 12 million under arms. However, it is important to note that this figure was only inclusive of the National Revolutionary Air Force, National Revolutionary Army and remnants of the National Revolutionary Navy. This 12 million figure did not include the various militia, anti-aircraft and division level formations under the Civil Protection Office, nor did it include the security formations, secret police units and the transition camp infrastructure under the Bureau of Information and Statistics. If those figures are included, then a more accurate count of 20 million comes into place.

The Northern Army Group/Northern Expedition Army
The bulk of the National Revolutionary Army was deployed in the Northern Army Group. Before Chiang took command in May and re-organized the Northern Army Group into the Northern Expedition Army, this Army Group had 4 million troops. After Chiang took control and hollowed out other Army groups for men and material, it had swelled to 8 million in preparation for the Third Northern Expedition.

Why did Chiang 'hollow out' the other fronts? Foremost in his mind was the lack of progress being made on what was seen as a key front. Second was that the Sino-Soviet Non-Aggression pact was due to expire in August 28, 1943. BIS intelligence indicated that while the bulk of Soviet troop concentrations were across Eastern Europe, there was still a substantial concentration across the Manchurian-Soviet border. The concern was that the Soviet Union would attack Manchuria and claim the rich provinces for herself easily while China had expended countless lives and resources for nothing. Chiang intended to build up troops throughout 1941 and launch a massive general offensive in January 1942.

Entente intelligence was not blind to these developments. Increasingly shill reports to Tokyo by the North China Command were being ignored however as the Tojo regime had firmly decided on the "Southern Option" which was being developed with British forces. Although North China army command had 2 million men, the increasing concentration of National Revolutionary Army forces caused growing alarm, but the North China Army's commanding officer General Hisaichi Terauchi was not informed of the "Southern Strategy" which was intended to be kept as confidential as possible.

Du Yuming (one of the first graduates of the Whampoa Military Academy), was the Field Marshall of the Central Army Group. Although a capable comannder, he was appointed on the basis of his complete loyalty to Chiang. (1)

The Central Army Group:
The Central Army Group had two million men under arms by the start of 1941 and was reduced to one million by the end of 1 million. The Field Commander of the Central Army Group was Du Yuming, a Chiang loyalist and was appointed on the basis of his loyalty. This trait was important because the Central Army Group included the capital Nanking in it's area of command and so would have an important role in quashing any insurrection. The Central Army Group was tasked with preventing any naval invasions as well, but this was judged unlikely due to the strong defenses and the fact urban terrain of much of the province.

The Southern Army Group:
The Southern Army Group bore the brunt of troop reductions for Chiang's Northern Expedition. At the beginning of the year, the Southern Army Group had 4 million troops. But after three years of stalemate across Indochinese and Burmese border, it was clear that the anticipated Entente offensives would not occur and so 2 million men were transferred from the Southern Army Group. The death of Field Marshall Li Zongren in an allied bombing raid in April 1941 was used as a pretext to transfer Field Marshall Sun Li-Jen from his command at the Northern Army Group so that Chiang could assume direct control.

Part of the reason was political. Sun had been preparing for an offensive across the Northern Army Group and some say that Chiang felt threatened of what the young, ambitious Field Marshall could have accomplished. So, in order to nip the potential threat in the bud, Chiang had him transferred to a more quiet command and stripped of two million troops.

Field Marshall Sun Li-Jen was a resourceful and crafty commander. Popular with his troops and the wider public, he was viewed with distrust by President Chiang. (2)

Sun had a daunting task ahead of him. He two million troops with which to defend the coasts of Guanxi, Guandong and Fujian from a naval invasion and had to defend the Burmese and Indochinese border. However, Sun was not content to stay 'quiet' despite his limited resources. He ordered probing attacks conducted across the Indochinese and Burmese border to tease out the defences of the provinces.

What he found was promising. Although the rough Burmese terrain precluded serious offensive operations, French-held Indochina was quite weakly defended with just 200,000 troops holding a broad front An offensive operation against the thinly held French position could shorten the front that had to be defended. The ambitious general who could not sit still had a goal in mind. He would capture Hanoi by May 1942, which would allow him to consolidate the position and hold a stable line.

Field Marshall Ma Bufang commanded the Western Army Group. Besides being the Field Marshall of the Western Army Group, he commanded the world's largest cavalry army and had a pretty bitching beard. (3)

The Western Army Group:
Geographically the Western Army Group was probably the largest area command. Field Marshall Ma Bufang commanded a force of two million troops to defend a vast border. There was a substantial portion of his "Muslim Cavalry" which was siphoned off for the Third Northern Expedition. This left a force of 1 million to defend a wide border. However, this mostly cavalry force was well suited to conduct patrols and a fluid defense across a broad front and the poor logistics of the area was it's own protection. The Western Army Group also had about 100,000 Bureau troops stationed in border posts and across 'transition camps' which could be called on at a pinch.

The Strategic Reserve:
The remaining 4 million men consisted of a broad strategic reserve. Although officially 'uncommitted' and based around Nanking, a large portion of it would be earmarked to take advantage of any breakthrough in the Third Northern Expedition.

________________________________________________________
Sources:

(1)http://ww2db.com/image.php?image_id=16228

(2) http://ww2db.com/image.php?image_id=19919

(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_Bufang#mediaviewer/File:Ma_Bufang.jpg

Nivek · Oct 1, 2014

So the third north expedition will be the Chinese barbarossa(and with extra point with that soviet teasing) and the south expedition, the allowhistorical irony(china as vietnam liberators,

) would be brutal but that have so good chance to goes 'good', still waiting something the chinese can have in the bargain table and to 'FUCK YOU' to the french.

seems the stake will be put all in 1942 and will decided the future of this war( personal theory....all ended is a slatemate who leave neither side satisfate but count as minor axis victory(germany go unified, is not beated and chinese kick the japanese out of continental asia, except korea)

Uberbaku · Oct 1, 2014

China Front

Question:

Which Chinese general is commanding the Northern Front.

So far excellent KMT generals are:

Fang Xianjue(excellent KMT Commander at Hengyang 1944).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fang_Xianjue

Tang En Po(according to the Japanese, one of the the most respected KMT commanders, also studied in Japan and knew Japanese strategies)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_Enbo

Chen Cheng(Well he is really close to Chang)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Cheng

Comments:

Yah Sun Li Jen, one of the best KMT commanders. I think he will cause a disaster for the Allies.

Son of Leman Russ · Oct 1, 2014

I have a feeling that instead of in otl levant-palestine ITTL Israel will be built on Formosa, I mean Taiwan. With Hitler basically dump all Jews to China.

Chinese speaking jews lol.

06294086 · Oct 2, 2014

Son of Leman Russ said:
I have a feeling that instead of in otl levant-palestine ITTL Israel will be built on Formosa, I mean Taiwan. With Hitler basically dump all Jews to China.

Chinese speaking jews lol.

Well, CCA has said that the Jews will be integrated to the rest of China.

As for whether Israel will exist or not it's still unclear.

Should Israel not exist, I wonder whether the rivalry between Sunni and Syiah get better or worse as compared to OTL.

06294086 · Oct 2, 2014

CCA said:
...

Field Marshall Sun Li-Jen was a resourceful and crafty commander. Popular with his troops and the wider public, he was viewed with distrust by President Chiang. (2)

Sun had a daunting task ahead of him. He two million troops with which to defend the coasts of Guanxi, Guandong and Fujian from a naval invasion and had to defend the Burmese and Indochinese border. However, Sun was not content to stay 'quiet' despite his limited resources. He ordered probing attacks conducted across the Indochinese and Burmese border to tease out the defences of the provinces.

What he found was promising. Although the rough Burmese terrain precluded serious offensive operations, French-held Indochina was quite weakly defended with just 200,000 troops holding a broad front An offensive operation against the thinly held French position could shorten the front that had to be defended. The ambitious general who could not sit still had a goal in mind. He would capture Hanoi by May 1942, which would allow him to consolidate the position and hold a stable line.

This will be very interesting, I'm looking forward to it in the next update.

CCA · Oct 2, 2014

Uberbaku said:
Question:

Which Chinese general is commanding the Northern Front.

So far excellent KMT generals are:

Fang Xianjue(excellent KMT Commander at Hengyang 1944).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fang_Xianjue

Tang En Po(according to the Japanese, one of the the most respected KMT commanders, also studied in Japan and knew Japanese strategies)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_Enbo

Chen Cheng(Well he is really close to Chang)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Cheng

Comments:

Yah Sun Li Jen, one of the best KMT commanders. I think he will cause a disaster for the Allies.

Chiang is commanding the Northern Front/ Northern Expedition Army. He's had to devolve power to the Triad as a result of him being too busy to run things on his own now.

Uberbaku · Oct 2, 2014

KMT Jan 1942 offensive

Yah I figured Chang would take over. The Chinese are taking advantage of the winter conditions to cancel out Japanese airpower. Winter in the northern Chinese war area in January can go to -20 centigrades, snow frost and foggy weather the whole day so excellent conditions for the Chinese to attack. However Japanese tanks would still work good since they use diesel engines which is good for winter conditions and will not freeze like gasoline. Chinese tanks still use gasoline so not good during winter conditions.

Interesting to see how the offensive plays out.

Uberbaku · Oct 2, 2014

Soviet Japanese miltary questions

A few questions on Soviet and Japanese military capabilitlies:

Are the Soviets fielding Yak fighter and IL-2 sturmovik planes?

I would reckon that the poor performance of the Soviet I-15 and I-16s vs. the Japanese Ki-27s in 1939 will probalby prompt them to get a better replacement. Historically the Yak-1 was introduced in 1940 and has a significantly better performance than the I-15 and I-16 fighters, more maneuverable, better speed rate of climb though less heavilly armed.

I reckon by the start of 1942, the Soviets would probably have a lot of Yak-1s in frontline service vs the Japanese which would have mainly Ki-27s and some Ki-43s(which historically came into service late 1941).

I also think the Soviets are fielding large numbers of IL-2 sturmoviks however While not maneuverable , very hard to shoot down considering the poorly armed Japanese fighters guns will hardly penetrate its armour.

What kind of tanks are the Japaense fielding?

My opinion, I think their main battle tank is the Type 97 Chi ha which is mainly deployed in Manchuria facing hte Soviets.

BMN · Oct 2, 2014

Can we get some maps to illustrate the situation and alliances? That would be a nice addition.

CCA · Oct 2, 2014

The end of 1941 - a map/narrative interlude

The state of play in 1941. Important to note that the colours include the 'leaner' countries that have granted military access but have no formal alliance. On the axis side, this includes Turkey, Persia and Afghanistan (formally neutral countries.) On the Entente side this includes Thailand, Saudi Arabia and Portugal.

Hans Zimmerman

Hans was happy this Christmas. The Herman Goering division had been withdrawn from the Western Front and allowed some time off Christmas. They were due east to be sent to assist Germany's most reluctant of allies - the Polish in training their army for the realities of modern warfare. The Goering Division was an ideal division to conduct the training, it was a panzer division with a heavy motorized component and was experienced in combined arms operation. Most importantly, it was staffed mostly of professional or conservative men - not the racial fanatics of the SS. They could be trusted to work well with the Poles and not damage the fragile relations between the two powers.

He took a sip from the schnapps he was sipping in the warm Hamburg tavern. It was cold outside but the warmth from the drink and the fireplace made him warm and happy. He looked around the empty tavern for officers. A lot of the men had gone home to their families, but Hans was career military. His parents had died in an English bombing raid two years ago, but he went to Hamburg to pay his respects since then.

This new war was brutal and uncivilized, he reflected. Civilians died in their homes. Although the bombing raids had abated since the Southern Front had opened up and British bombers had gone south to wreck their terror elsewhere, it was still a pity. But the war in the Far East made the happenings in the West like the quarrels of small toddlers. Chinese cities were being smashed to rubble by British airpower. Dark rumours of massacres of Chinese civilians in Japanese occupied territory and much worse - live experimentation on humans of horrific new weapons. Hans wasn't born yesterday. He knew that some of it had to be propaganda, but though Goebells was prone to distortion and exagerration, he hadn't outright made things up.

The memory made him sad. So he drank some more and he drank and he drank and he drank. In the morning he would regret it, but for now everything was going to be all right. For him and the Fatherland. And he hoped, for the human race.

Lewis K. Rockefeller

Congressman Lewis Rockefeller was nervous. 1941 was rolling around and his party hadn't made any more progress than last time. An economic boom was in full swing. American rearnament was proceeding apace and as the world wrecked itself, American peace and prosperity was magnified even more with images of a world in conflict.

All this boded poorly for his party's chances in the mid-term elections in November in a year, not to mention farther down the track. The Democrats seemed to be invincible in both domestic and foreign policy. His own seat, previously safe was even looking a little bit wobbly.

And so, amidst an opulent Christmas spent with family and friends in the upper crust of New York society, Congressman Lewis continued to worry.

Benjamin Murmelstein

Murmelstein was sick.

It was sickness born of the soul, not of the body.

That in itself was miraculous, conditions at the Kashgar Transition Camp was less than ideal.

Masses of humanity were huddled in overcrowded, ramshackle wooden buildings. Even Murmelstein, as one of the Camp's Eldest had to share his room with 12 other people.

There was enough food for everyone, that in itself was a minor miracle. It was oddly flavoured, generic gruel filled with a type of meat he couldn't identify, but it was food.

The Chinese guards treated the prisoners with pity and some small measure of compassion too. But in comparison to the fanaticism and cruelty of the SS guards, even the practised uncaringness of the Soviet guards was warm.

It wasn't deliberate. But something had to be done. So Murmelstein carefully lifted his typewriter in place and began to type. Leading his people out to exile had not been an easy job. But he would not his people down now.

marcus_aurelius · Oct 2, 2014

Chinese generals

CCA said:
You're correct about the Dai Li/CKS and Wang Jingwei/CKS relationship. Since there was never a split between the right/left of Kuomintang, there's still a substantial portion of leftist officers that Wang can use to form a cadre for the CP. The Communist Party, while not being promoted, hasn't been repressed and isn't underground either. And the CP is mostly intended to be a disorganized militia/civil defence/Anti-aircraft type thing with a handful of 'elite' divisions.

The problem is, most of the OTL CCP commander (Lin Biao, Liu Bocheng, Su Yu etc.) proved to be great generals in mobile warfare in the Second Civil War. It is reasonable to assume that without the KMT split in 1927 they'd find themselves in frontline commands at at least division-level.

Uberbaku said:
Fang Xianjue(excellent KMT Commander at Hengyang 1944).

IOTL a division commander right now, about to be promoted to NRA X Corps GOC.

Uberbaku said:
Tang En Po(according to the Japanese, one of the the most respected KMT commanders, also studied in Japan and knew Japanese strategies)

He's alright, but his command IOTL had a heck load of problems (ill-trained, lack of discipline, robbing civilians etc.) and got their asses kicked during Ichi-Go. [1] If it were up to me, I won't give him anything above corps-level command in a quite theater (a suitable option would be Nanking-Shanghai-Hangzhou Defence Command).

[1] To be fair, Tang himself is quite harsh in upholding discipline to the point his subordinates dare not report infringements to him. Also, his command was made up of troops from murky background (former bandits, warlord troops etc.), which exacerbated the problem

Uberbaku said:
Question:

Which Chinese general is commanding the Northern Front.

So far excellent KMT generals are:

Fang Xianjue(excellent KMT Commander at Hengyang 1944).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fang_Xianjue
Chen Cheng(Well he is really close to Chang)

Either him or Xue Yue will fit the role of a theater commander.

CCA said:
Part of the reason was political. Sun had been preparing for an offensive across the Northern Army Group and some say that Chiang felt threatened of what the young, ambitious Field Marshall could have accomplished. So, in order to nip the potential threat in the bud, Chiang had him transferred to a more quiet command and stripped of two million troops.

Field Marshall Sun Li-Jen was a resourceful and crafty commander. Popular with his troops and the wider public, he was viewed with distrust by President Chiang. (2)

Going with OTL experience. Sun Li-jen does not (yet) have the seniority to be Army Group commander. He's a VMI grad, which IOTL cause some friction with the Whampoa Boys who are his peers or superiors; his subordinates like Liu Fangwu or Li Hong are okay with him, possibly due to his effective training methods back in the Tax Police Brigade days.

Now, it is possible for Sun Li-jen to achieve his highest level of combat command (GOC NRA New I Corps) earlier than OTL, but that would require some pretty damned impressive performance earlier in the war, and even then, in 1943 I can see him as corps commander at most. Army-level command or above will have to wait, perhaps after blitzkrieging Hanoi or something. I would recommend the following men for CINC, AG South: a) Long Yun (OTL warlord of Yunnan), b) Sun Lianzhong (formerly one of the Northwest Army, OTL field commander at Taierzhuang), c) Gu Zhutong (OTL commander, Third War Area), or d) Xue Yue (OTL commander, Ninth War Area and hero of the first three Battles of Changsha).

Also, Chiang's distrust towards Sun was somewhat fueled by his close relationship to Stilwell, who had significant tensions with CKS IOTL. [2] Without it, Sun might go further with less hurdles.

[2] BTW? Stilwell's an asshole. I've never seen a theater Chief of Staff who gives no shits about his own theater. Wedemeyer was a much better CoS.

Marc A

Uberbaku · Oct 2, 2014

Marcus,

Nice, stuff, Yah Xue Yue, one of the best KMT generals. also with the no CCP split, Peng Deu Hai also excellent.

Yah also agree while no CCP split, Chang still distrusts the CCP so they are given divisional command at most, maybe put one up as a corps command as a show to appease the CCP.

True Tang En Po not so good however he is very loyal to Chang and part of his Central Army faction. So not surprised if he gets a higher post. Same with Chen Cheng.

the best KMT generals seem to be the ones of other opposing KMT factions like Xue Yue, Sun Li Jen etc.

Wonder what happened to Yan Xi Shan of the Shanxi faction, in OTL he was one of the strongest KMT leaders controlling his own set of provinces in Central China right even during the war.

Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

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