Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

Is the table messed up for anyone else?

Are good referencing one(would need axis one for the vs comparation) but yeah formating need an edit but a good way to say, GB is the leader and japan the distant third.

Still some minor edit(or make a excel table and screenshooted it)
 
Opens Many Questions

I originally ignored this ATL topic as merely an Axis Victory timeline but I was sorely mistaken. Nice job creating a nuanced and multifaceted TL out of what many usually approach as black and white.

It raises many questions about how countries that were traditionally neutral in WWII OTL would behave in this scenario. Countries such as Turkey, who's state was built upon success of repelling Entente intervention, will probably feel more wary now about the belligerent successes of Italy along with the rest of the 'Pact of Steel' in Greece. Would a UK being stretched to its limit fighting on two far flung parts of the Eurasian continent even bother trying to stage an invasion to overthrow Reza Shah Pavlahi? Switzerland may act different in this situation as they not be completely geographically surrounded by the Axis. Also would Thailand's neutrality remain secure as Imperial Japan would see no reason to violate their sovereignty for passage to Burma?
 
South China the 2nd Allied Gallipoli

Looks like the Allied amphibious landings in South China is shaping up to be a Gallipoli like disaster. I think it will be an initial success but Chinese counterattacks will turn it into a disaster. I will posit that the landings will probably occur either int he Guangdong province, Fujian province is too rugged in terrain, and so is Guangxi and Yunnan province.

Well I can posit it is either Guangxi and Guangdong province make for likely targets for Allied amphibious landings. Both have good coastlines. Guangxi is the gateway to the Sichuan province which is the backdoor to China and its breadbasket and factories. Guangdong also has factories but a good backdoor towards Central China.

Anyways, I think the disaster will help end the allied commitment to China. Expect the British Commonwealth members to get out of the war. India will be ripe for revolution. Post war, I expect Japan to lose Manchuria and korea but gain the Dutch East Indies.
 
Part 2: The Axis Powers
Part 2: The Axis Powers

Table 1: Axis Arms Production in 1941

View attachment 239962


Despite comprehensive victories against the Entente powers on virtually every front in 1941, post-war analysis has revealed that the Axis Powers were outproduced in 1941. Despite the relative outpacing of production, Axis powers, particularly Italy, punched above their weight.

Germany:


Bundesarchiv_Bild_146-1979-026-22%2C_Adolf_Hitler_verleiht_Albert_Speer_Fritz-Todt-Ring.jpg

Albert Speer's ascension to high office filled the void left by the death of Fritz Todt on the "Iron Line."

The Domestic Situation


The Domestic-Political Situation in Germany was stable. The German population, under constant propaganda bombardment by Dr. Goebbels, under constant surveillance by the Gestapo and under total mobilization from March 1941 was too cowed to produce anything resembling resistance. Although German success was relatively few in 1941, there were no great losses either and the Balkan Front was portrayed as largely a German success, rather than an Italian one.

The big change in the power games of the Nazi Elite was the ascension of a previously obscure Albert Speer to the top. The departure of Fritz Todt to Turkey and subsequent accident meant that a big void had been opened up. Speer's appointment to the Ministry of Armaments meant that he was now one of the party bigwigs alongside Goebbels, Himmler, Borman and Goering forming with them a lose 'pentarchy' - underneath, of course Hitler.

Arms Production

The key feature in 1941 was a decision to ramp up German mobilization and conduct a total mobilization of German society. This decision was made largely due to fears of an impeding two-front war and the need to knock France out of the war, as quickly as possible. TOTALER KRIEG became the order of the day as women and foreign labourers were used to serve in the factories so that more German men could serve in the divisions. However, the results of the Totaler Krieg would be fully reflected in production statistics until 1942 when many of the key reforms had taken effect.

Ironically, much of TOTALER KRIEG was financed and supplied by American dollars and American raw materials. Soviet-German tension had rapidly increased with small scale skirmishes across the Polish -Soviet border throughout the year. Soviet raw materials, which Germany was reliant on, was no longer an option and so a combination of ersatz goods and American imports was used to fill the void.

The Jewish Question


As the tempo of war increased, so did anti-semitism across the German Reich. A large part of it was orchestrated by Dr. Goebbel's propaganda machine, intent as it was on focusing the hatred of the German masses onto an external, existential threat in order to justify the greater mobilization of German society.

However, the organized deportations before had been conducted largely through the Soviet Union, with trainloads of Jews being routed to through the Soviet Union and then to China. From the start of 1941, this was no longer an option. A few radicals and racial fanatics suggested a program of extermination, but this was not viewed as a viable option. Germany had committed to supporting her Chinese ally by 'exporting' the Jewish population and so a different solution was sought.

The solution came in the form of a railway that ran between Turkey-Persia-Afghanistan and then to Kashgar. Although overtures had previously been made to construct a railway between Turkey to Persia in order to provide an unbroken link between the two Axis powers, this was not undertaken. However, as the Axis increasingly dominated the Balkans and the Mediterranean, Turkey was eventually won over by the stick (fear of Italo-German 'intervention') and the carrot (the construction of critical infrastructure.) It is important to note that although the final stages of the 'link' between Persia and Turkey was not completed until 1941, German engineers had already been active from 1939 onwards in 'assisting' Turkey in a "Railway modernization project." Afghanistan and Persia was already leaning towards the Axis, so it was not difficult to convince her to allow Sino-German engineers access to assist in the construction of a railway link. Similarly, Afghanistan and Persia were already the beneficiaries of a similar project from China in the interwar years so 1941 was the year of linking these projects together.

It is a testament to the lunacy of German racism during World War 2 that such a massive infrastructure and engineering project was conceived, planned and then successfully executed within three years. From an outside perspective, a civilized and modern country spending so much time, money and resources in order to expel what had been it's most educated, successful and loyal minority, was an act of complete lunacy. Nonetheless, it was carried out by Organization Todt with co-operation from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics and completed by the end of the 1941. Countless of lives, Reichmarks and resources had been spent in constructing this railway. Although Hitler's propaganda machine had coined the impressive sounding "Iron Line," for those who lived around the lines where so much blood had been spilt to construct it, it was known as the "Blood Line."

Unsurprisingly, the opening of the "Iron Line" was met with alarm by the Entente powers. Hurried plans for a military intervention in Persia was drawn up by both France and the UK with a surprising power coming to the table...

China:

The Domestic-Political Situation:
China's slow slide towards authoritarianism continued apace in 1941, despite Chiang relinquishing a lot of control over to the "Triad" of Dai Li (the Minister in charge of the Bureau of Statistics, Information and Statistics), Wang Jingwei (the Prime Minister and Vice President) and T.V Soong (The Premier and Finance Minister) in order to take personal command of the Northern Expedition Army. However, it was not a deliberate slide towards authoritarianism, it was one borne out of the desire for every man in the Triad to assume as much power as they could.

Hong-Kong-1941-Air-Raid-Precautions.png


A comprehensive system of air raid warnings under Wang's "National Office of Civil Protection" emerged. (2)

As Entente air raids towards South China escalated, there was an increasing need to create a unified, centralized and effective air warning raid system. The provincial ones were an ad-hoc collection of patchworks and systems were re-organized by Wang Jingwei into a "National Office of Civil Protection." Wang used his faction's numbers in the Legislative Yuan to push through this legislation. The National Office of Civil Protection was intended to be purely one that organized air raid warden systems, but the actual legislation that was passed and the powers that it gave the office meant that Wang was able to effectively create a shadow army under his personal command. Officially, "Civil Protection Units" were theoretically supposed to come under the command of a National Revolutionary Army, but they increasingly began to assume more and more independence and division-level Civil Protection formations began to appear by the end of the year.

However, this situation was not unprecedented. Dai Li's secret police and national security apparatus numbered a million strong by 1941. This is not counting the numerous informants, gang members and other people not on the 'official' payroll. As the war proceeded apace, so did the intrusion, numbers and powers of the Bureau of Statistics and Information.

The end result of this fragmentation was that effectively, China had reverted to an organized sort of warlordism that the Kuomintang had worked so hard to avoid and stamp out. This time however, the warlords were centrally commanded and condoned at the highest levels.

The proliferation of state sanctioned separate armies was a boon for Minister of Finance and Premier T.V Soong. The Secretary for War Production and Arnaments He Yingquinn was directly under the Finance Ministry and so T.V Soong used this in order to extract concessions and promises in return for arming Wang's and Dai Li's troops.

Arms Production

Chinese Arms production was remarkably high for a country that had so recently industrialized. This was possible only under the condition of total mobilization that the country had been since 1937 and the fact that much of Chinese production suffered from severe quality control problems and were severely outclassed in the field.

T13-B2.jpg


The Tianjin Model 40 Tank was remarkably similar to the Belgian T-13 Tank Destroyer. Despite no official liaison between Belgium and China, they both came to field a very similar type of tank. The main difference is that the Tianjin Model 40 was fully enclosed with a limited traverse turret, was equipped with a 57mm (3) and a hull-mounted machine gun.

A frequently used example is the Chinese Tianjin Model Year 39 tank. This was a license-built modification of an Italian modification of the Carden Lloyd tankettes, the CV-33s. The Tianjin Model 40 had 15mm of armor on the front, carried a high-velocity 57mm cannon and a hull machinegun operated by the driver with a total crew of 3. It was mostly designed to be produced as quickly as possible. Any factory that could produce tractors was supposed to be able to produce it. This was the main battle tank for China throughout the war, but it was inferior to modern tanks. It was suitable for infantry support and, throughout the war, as a tank destroyer, but when it faced modern British, French and Soviet tank designs, was completely outclassed in all other respects. It was slow, could only carry limited amounts of ammunition internally (10 shells!) , was penetrable by literally every anti-tank weapon fielded by the Entente throughout the war (and by .50 caliber machine gun from the top) and prone to catching fire . Yet, it remained in service throughout the war as it was easy to mass produce, easy to repair on the field and relatively mechanically reliable.

This was how Chinese Industry was able to sustain a high rate of production. It stuck with one model and persisted throughout the war. It was the same for the license-built ME. 109's that was built by the Chinese aircraft industry and for the 75mm field gun used by China throughout the war.

Nonetheless, China suffered from terrible production quality throughout the war. As many of 50% of the Tianjin Model 40s had to be repaired once they reached the army before they could even start. The Chinese Aircraft industry had the least amount of production flaws and errors (as even a bolt out of place in an aircraft can be fatal and field repairs are difficult to pull off in the sky) but even it had 20% of planes that were discovered to have flaws and had to be sent back.

This was the natural consequence of Chinese industry which was , in it's infancy, being asked to produce enough materiel to fight a three (and later four) front war. Chinese industry was able to pepper over most of the cracks with it's sheer weight of manpower, but this was at the cost of compromised quality and degraded battlefield performance.

Italy


Hp8Bdga.jpg

Mussolini's cult of personality intensified quite significantly following a string of victories in 1941. (4)

Italy was a power that had delusions of grandeur, but without the resources, manpower or materiel to accomplish it. Out of the big three in the Axis, Italian production lagged behind that of Germany and China.

There was no simple explanation for why Italian industry under-performed. It was a toxic combination of corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and lack of crucial resources. Mussolini's reluctance to conduct total war also aided to the malaise in Italian war production.

Mussolini was keen to maintain his popularity which had reached an all time high by 1941, following Italian triumph in the Balkans and Mediterranean. He also thought that the Entente powers were on the verge of collapse by 1941 and so, unlike China or Germany, Italy never mobilized in a totalitarian way - ironic for the country which was the birthplace of the totalitarian Fascist ideology.

It was a testament to the courage, skill and ferocity of Italian soldiers that they were able to perform in spite of shortages. Unfortunately for Italy, 1941 would not be the end of the conflict. Mussolini's decision not to mobilize for the war would have far-reaching consequences later on in the conflict. But for now, Italy could bask in the glow of a Balkan under Italian suzerainty, at least for those who did not have a father, brother, friend or relative killed, maimed or missing after the Greek adventure.

Sources:

http://ww2-weapons.com/History/Production/

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Speer

(2) http://chinese-export-silver.com/me...covering-true-identity-genius-宏興-發現一個天才的真正身份/

(3) http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/belgium/Belgian_T13.php

(4) http://imgur.com/gallery/Hp8Bdga

Next update: The Neutral Giants.
 
I like the idea of Wang Jingwei gathering his own shadow army without a public fallout with CKS (or going over to the Japanese, for that matter). Although, where does he get that many officers that would follow him to command the CP (had to lol a bit at that) units? CKS has Whampoa in the early days and the Central Military Academy to provide him with reasonably loyal officers, and IOTL he has the prestige to get the warlords to follow him. What does Wang have?

About Dai Li... his relationship with CKS is one of master-pupil (Dai being a graduate of Whampoa's Sixth Class) instead of solely superior-subordinate a la Hitler and Himmler. The point is, IOTL MBIS is quite powerful out of necessity, and it looks like the same case ITTL. It doesn't necessarily mean Dai harbor thoughts untoward to his old master.

Also, I'm surprised that He Yingqin got assigned to oversee arms production (IMO his best role would be Minister of National Defence or Chief of General Staff). Yu Dawei will probably make a better Secretary for War Production.

Marc A

P.S. Any chance for these men - Sun Li-jen, Zhang Lingfu, Hu Lien, Qiu Qingquan, Huang Baitao and Liao Yaoxiang - to appear soon?
 
Nice update. I wonder if that "surprising power" coming to the Persian intervention is the USSR.

About Chinese production, with the railroad and better German economic performance, won't the Chinese try to get a new tank or aircraft model? Maybe an upgunned Panzer III or the Macchi C.202, if the Axis can't or won't give more powerful and complex designs.
 
Nice update. I wonder if that "surprising power" coming to the Persian intervention is the USSR.

About Chinese production, with the railroad and better German economic performance, won't the Chinese try to get a new tank or aircraft model? Maybe an upgunned Panzer III or the Macchi C.202, if the Axis can't or won't give more powerful and complex designs.

It's not that China doesn't have access to more powerful and complex designs, it's just that they have a simple design which does it's job. Chinese Industry is capable of producing things like the Panzer IV, but the production capacity lost in retooling the factories etc won't make it worth it.
 
It's not that China doesn't have access to more powerful and complex designs, it's just that they have a simple design which does it's job. Chinese Industry is capable of producing things like the Panzer IV, but the production capacity lost in retooling the factories etc won't make it worth it.

Well, it's not that I'm suggesting Panthers or Me-262 for Chiang Kai Shek. And the Bf-109 may hold it's own against Japanese planes for a while. But the Tianjin 39 and 40 are totally unsuitable, even against Japanese tanks (which historically were also disappointing). So what about a more robust design that also has economies of scale of it's own, like the Pz III?

With the railroad I can see a German "lend-lease" of sorts, including old Pz II and III to be upgunned and studied on China. Maybe they won't replace the older Tianjins completely, but will give seriously needed power to elite and some regular Chinese divisions.
 
This is getting more and more interesting.

So there is no Holocaust, the Jews from German are deported to Kashgar and Israel is butterflied away?

I wonder what effect it will have in the future...
 
can't said anything but this is a really enjoyable timeline... a bit of guilty pleasure looking Nazi victory I think... (since outside ASB, this is a rare treat indeed)
 
This is getting more and more interesting.

So there is no Holocaust, the Jews from German are deported to Kashgar and Israel is butterflied away?

I wonder what effect it will have in the future...

Considering the Balfour Declaration was already signed the British gave the green light (albeit limited and often times during WWII legally closed) for Jews to settle and buy property within the British Mandate of Palestine. I have little doubt you can simply butterfly what is becoming a historical freight train all its own at this point. There maybe some differences though like a young (not yet general) Moshe Dyan and Yizhak Rabin among others fighting with the British against Italian forces in this TL instead of Vichy French.

However, since a majority of German and Eastern European Jews who survive initial Nazi invasion are being deported to Kashgar, a once ancient Jewish community that had predominantly became Islamic by the 16th century, is going to create sectarian problems all its own. The question is how the KMT will react to such a situation and whether this in turn will continue to make Labor Zionism grow in popularity among the Jewish diaspora.
 
I'm very intrigued at how the course of the war is going, it also looks like the Soviet Union is about to become involved.

The Iranian invasion itself shouldn't be too difficult for the Entente to pull off, especially if the Soviets are involved, but the blowback from the US could be important. It would give the impression that the Entente is invading another innocent, neutral country under colonialist pretenses. As Afghanistan is also pro-Axis ITTL, there's a possibility that the Entente could try and invade Afghanistan as well to cut off the Iron Line, as well as provide a link with the Soviet Union.

Since the link between Germany and China is so important, and that Turkey seems far more pro-Axis, the Middle East as a whole is also going to become a far more important threatre of war.

All in all, I'm at the edge of my seat as to what comes next.
 
Oh, so this war will end up with US enforced stalemate and peace treaty for more or less status quo because they're pissed off with both combatants

"We'll drop this atom bomb on BOTH Germany and Japan if you boys didn't go end the fighting?" :D

Oh well, this is certainly quite an innovative way to end a world war.
 
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