Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

Yes, and no. Taranto failed because of AWS and Britain underestimating Italian strength. Europe has seen the power of naval aviation in the Sino-Japanese front.

Without Japanese initial successes against the Western powers in WW2, the western powers would still underestimate Japan and China (Note the British Pre-WW2 thought the Japanese pilots had difficulty hitting targets due to poor eyesight), and believe that the Japanese attack was a fluke or just that the Chinese were supremely incompetent.
 
I for one, won't be surprised if US just silently building nukes, and after this deemed enough, demonstrate it both in two empty spots at Pacific and Atlantic ocean.

"Stop fighting you all or we'll fuck you both!"
 
I for one, won't be surprised if US just silently building nukes, and after this deemed enough, demonstrate it both in two empty spots at Pacific and Atlantic ocean.

"Stop fighting you all or we'll fuck you both!"

The Americans have the ability to wreck the economy of either sides by calling in loans and refusing to lend more. The war is pretty much being financed on American money - on both sides.

That's arguably more powerful than an atomic weapon, if a little less flashy :p
 
The Americans have the ability to wreck the economy of either sides by calling in loans and refusing to lend more. The war is pretty much being financed on American money - on both sides.

That's arguably more powerful than an atomic weapon, if a little less flashy :p

"Have fun boys, but the first one to commit genocide will get a red card?"
 
Enjoying your timeline The 800 lb gorrilla, the USSR

Excellent timeline, been following it for a while now.

My observations on the USSR in this timeline:

Has USSR invaded Finland?

Well I think not yet. But I think sooner or later they will invade Finland due to their thinking the Germans are bogged down in the west vs. the French and UK. The German success in Scandanavia might influence their thinking but again I think weighing the fact that the Germans are weakened might entice them to act in Finland. To divide the spoils of Scandanavia as the USSR did in Poland OTL. Wonder what Sweden will think of this? Probably remain neutral and start to mobilize if they haven't already but the Swedish are buddy buddy with the Germans since the Swedish provide a lot of coal to the Germans as they did in OTL. And the Swedes have the Strongest military in Scandanavia.

As for Poland, I believe that the Germans and Soviets find Poland to be a valuable buffer area...For now....

Also I think another factor in the hesitation is that the Great purge enacted by Stalin vs. the Soviet military was also done in this timeline. I think Stalin is building up his military forces with an eye towards Japan and possibly Poland. In OTL, Stalin has always thought that Japan was biggest military threat to the USSR until 1940 with the Fall of France, the shift changed towards Germany. In this timeline the view is unchanged, USSR is profiting from the German arms shipments passing thru its territory to the KMT and there have been armed clashes with Japan. But I think in this timeline. The Soviet far east, the tranportation and logistical infrastructure is built up even more rapidly to accomodate the Soviet aid to the KMT and to support the massive and growing Soviet buildup of the Soviet military forces ine area esp. the ones on the Manchurian border.

I think the Soviet plan for Manchuria and Korea is to wait and see. In this timeline, the Soviets see the Japanese to be the biggest military threat due to massive Japanese deployments in Manchuria. The Kwantung army in Manchuria I believe is as strong as ever(however many units are being sent south to fight the KMT in the stalemated front at Beijing/Tianjin).

While the Soviet Japanese border clashes showed the Japanese miltary was behind the Soviet union. The USSR is still hesitant for a possible invasion of Manchuria due to the fanatical fighting spirit shown by the Japanese which while defeated at the border clashes caused heavy Soviet losses. So right now I believe Stalin's view is wait and see.

The Soviets have an interesting view on the Japanese and the KMT. I believe that they view both to be a threat, but right now, the USSR needs the KMT to distract Japan and supports it. But in the long run, the USSR may see the KMT as a threat. So for now, it is the best interest of the USSR for the Japanese and Chinese to kill each other. Same too with Germany and the Allies.

My two cents on the matter.
 
Excellent timeline, been following it for a while now.

My observations on the USSR in this timeline:

Has USSR invaded Finland?

Well I think not yet. But I think sooner or later they will invade Finland due to their thinking the Germans are bogged down in the west vs. the French and UK. The German success in Scandanavia might influence their thinking but again I think weighing the fact that the Germans are weakened might entice them to act in Finland. To divide the spoils of Scandanavia as the USSR did in Poland OTL. Wonder what Sweden will think of this? Probably remain neutral and start to mobilize if they haven't already but the Swedish are buddy buddy with the Germans since the Swedish provide a lot of coal to the Germans as they did in OTL. And the Swedes have the Strongest military in Scandanavia.

As for Poland, I believe that the Germans and Soviets find Poland to be a valuable buffer area...For now....

Also I think another factor in the hesitation is that the Great purge enacted by Stalin vs. the Soviet military was also done in this timeline. I think Stalin is building up his military forces with an eye towards Japan and possibly Poland. In OTL, Stalin has always thought that Japan was biggest military threat to the USSR until 1940 with the Fall of France, the shift changed towards Germany. In this timeline the view is unchanged, USSR is profiting from the German arms shipments passing thru its territory to the KMT and there have been armed clashes with Japan. But I think in this timeline. The Soviet far east, the tranportation and logistical infrastructure is built up even more rapidly to accomodate the Soviet aid to the KMT and to support the massive and growing Soviet buildup of the Soviet military forces ine area esp. the ones on the Manchurian border.

I think the Soviet plan for Manchuria and Korea is to wait and see. In this timeline, the Soviets see the Japanese to be the biggest military threat due to massive Japanese deployments in Manchuria. The Kwantung army in Manchuria I believe is as strong as ever(however many units are being sent south to fight the KMT in the stalemated front at Beijing/Tianjin).

While the Soviet Japanese border clashes showed the Japanese miltary was behind the Soviet union. The USSR is still hesitant for a possible invasion of Manchuria due to the fanatical fighting spirit shown by the Japanese which while defeated at the border clashes caused heavy Soviet losses. So right now I believe Stalin's view is wait and see.

The Soviets have an interesting view on the Japanese and the KMT. I believe that they view both to be a threat, but right now, the USSR needs the KMT to distract Japan and supports it. But in the long run, the USSR may see the KMT as a threat. So for now, it is the best interest of the USSR for the Japanese and Chinese to kill each other. Same too with Germany and the Allies.

My two cents on the matter.

Thanks for your thoughts and taking the time to read! The next update on the Home Fronts should clarify things a little bit.
 
The Great war 2

Well my thoughts on the war:

USA is the real victor of the war, probably will not go to war but reap the rewards. Later.

USSR, will also probably be a victor, gaining territory at the expense of the Japanese.

China: Probably will win, minus Hainan and Manchuria. However might gain HK back from the UK. Chinese will celebrate this as a win for ejectin the allies from its territory.

Germany and Italy: Gains as Axis alliance stays with gains in Eastern Europe and Scandanavia. at the cost of losing millions of men.

France , UK Japan: Biggest losers of the war: UK will probably lose India and HK later(India due to revolution), maybe even Burma is lost due to Chinese invasion or revolution. French Indochina will probably be lost due to revolution/invasion. Japan, I expect Japan to lose Manchuria and maybe even Korea. Allies lose millions of men but lose territory and influence, expect a governmental change, purge in their govs.

2nd Great war in a stalemate but this time, Axis(Central Powers) have a marginal victory. I expect the Great war to end in 1944-1945. Both sides exhausted themselves. and/or used nuclear weapons against each other.

Like in OTL, The UK, Germans , Japanese have active nuke programs. The UK one is more focused by starts late in 1940 and has French help and help from German and Italian emigres like Einstein, Fermi. Germans started in 1937 but is hampered by poor funding and the defection of some of its most brilliant scientists like Einstein. The Japanese have a nuke project, but its very much hampered by funding or coordination, both the Arny and navy had their own projects and did not coordinate with each other.

I think the UK will probably make an atom bomb first and use it vs. the Germans or Chinese. Germans will respond with massive use of chemical weapons(they have a more advanced chemical weapons program than the Allies, sarin nerve gas. ). and accelerate their atom bomb programme.

I believe the Chinese and Japanese have used chemical weapons on each other already since 1938. In OTL, the Japanese first used chemical weapons large scale at the battle of Wuhan 1938. In this timeline both the Chinese and Japanese have chemical weapons and probably used it against each other contributing to the stalemate in the northern front.

Aftermath: Both sides exhausted economically and politically declare armistice, however new cold war arises between the Axis and Allies who form their own military alliances. 4 ideologies form their own Great power blocks:

USA: Democracy, has hegemony over North America, Central and South Am. and the Pacific(Phil). Good ties with the Allies(however suspicious of Japan), Ok ties with the Axis, tenous to poor ties with the USSR.

USSR: Communism. Tenous to poor ties with everyone else.

Axis: Fascism. Hegemony over Central, eastern and Northern Europe. Along with part of North Africa. Poor antagonistic ties with the Allies, tenous ties with the USSR , OK ties with the USA.

Allies: Colonialism. Hegemony over Africa, Middle East, Pacific. Australia, Canada. Good ties with teh USA, tenous ties with the USSR. Poor antagonistic ties witht eh Axis.
 
Post Great war 2 world

I expect heavy military buildup with the Franco-German border to be hot(ala NK ROK DMZ). A Sino Japanese naval build up along with a massive Chinese military build up along the border with Soviet held Manchuria. (defensive).However the tensions between the Chinese and Japaense are worse than USSR-Chinese tensions in Manchuria due mainly to the war. Expect naval clashes between the Chinese and Japanese naviesin the East and South China seas. Maybe first use of anti ship missles(German supplied ones by the Chinese).
 
I'm personally sceptical that a Neville Chamberlain anything like OTL's Chamberlain would have gone to war over China. The main threat to British interests was Germany, and Chamberlain was not a warmonger. He made guarantees to Poland, belatedly. He has made no such guarantee to Japan, unless the Anglo-Japanese alliance is very different ITTL to OTL.

I very much can see him allowing arms to be supplied to Japan, offering a benevolent neutrality towards Japan, but not go into a war in what was seen as a backwater from which Britain stood to lose far more than it can feasibly gain-especially with the Italo-German threat right on their doorstep.

In addition, the British would know the state of the 'China lobby' in America. They wouldn't want to get America on their bad side. There was a vague residual distrust of America, but the British establishment appreciated the significance of US support before getting into a war in the Far East. They appreciated the potential of American war production. They did not yet regard America as the no. 1 world power, but they knew not to get on its bad side.

Still, this has been a very interesting timeline, I look forward to reading more.
 
Really enjoyable timeline so far. And a realistic scenario for Japan siding with the Allies is quite an achievement ;)

Either way, I'd say that colonial Asia is gone. If China wins, their victory will probably involve occupying South-East Asia and establishing puppet regimes. If the Allies win (and after hearing the word Gotterdammerung, I fear that might not happen), it'll probably be because of regional military aid from Japan...who I'm sure will take the opportunity to expand their influence in South-East Asia. You mentioned that there are more Japanese forces in French Indochina than French ones - I'll bet they're building ties with Nationalist groups in the region.
 
The Home Fronts: Entente
The Home Fronts:

Part 1: The Entente

Table 1: Entente Military Production in 1941


Aircraft
Armor
Artillery
United Kingdom
(Total Commonwealth)
23,000
5,500
50,000
France *

15,000
3,500
25,000
Japan
13,000
2,000
20,000

Manchuria
2,000
1,000
10,000
* (Could not find reliable sources to have fudged it at half of UK's total.)




The Home Front situation of the Entente reached critical point by the end of 1941. Defeats in Greece, Malta and North China had eroded the morale of the civilian and political classes. Nonetheless, the key Entente powers held on: powered on by the fear of a harsh post-war settlement from the seemingly victorious Axis.

United Kingdom:
The UK was sagging from the weight of fighting a three front war and fighting a war on her home front from Fascist and Communist agitation. The UK Labour Party had reluctantly thrown herself into the coalition government following the German declaration of war, but had previously opposed the "Colonial Adventure" in China. This reluctant coalition oversaw a massive increase in the United Kingdom's borrowing from America in order to finance an increasingly expensive war.

India and her colonies was another major issue on the home front. The entry of UK Labour had softened up what had previously been a hardline stance. More devolution and post-war independence was guaranteed to India in order to win her support for what had become an exhausting conflict. Indian manpower was needed to sustain the losses suffered by the Empire. Although some of the manpower could be plugged by Commonwealth Canada, Australia and New Zealand, India's massive manpower reserves were thought to be limitless. This strategy was useful, but was limited by the continued bubbling away of discontent of more fervent Nationalists who were receiving arms, materiel and propaganda from across the Indo-Chinese border.

Another way to deal with them was by increasing the use of women in factories and workplaces. The Commonwealth economy was increasingly being geared towards war production and this required the total mobilization of all resources.

The combined GDP of the Commonwealth was approximately worth $700 billion (in 1990 terms. ) (1) This did not necessarily translate into Industrial production as a lot of India, Africa and other of Britain's colonial possessions were not industrialized. Nonetheless, the British Commonwealth was the most industrially productive of the Entente Powers, producing about 23,000 aircraft of various types, 5,500 armoured fighting vehicles (5,000 of which were tanks) and 50,000 various pieces of artillery (excluding mortar calliber pieces and below.)

France:
France fought on. Despite the lack of support for the war among the Communists and sections of the Hard Left, France proceeded with a crash-course program of mobilization. The was was not necessarily a popular one to start with, but as it had been transformed into a defensive one, it gained some measure of popular legitemacy with all but the most Moscow-Line communists getting onboard.

Unlike the British, France was not blessed with a colonial Empire as well resourced, as advanced and as Industrialized as the British one. France had no equivalent to Canada, Australia or New Zealand and so Metropolitan France contributed to a great deal of her production capacity with the colonies playing a role of supplying manpower both to fight for and to toil away in French factories and farms as well as crucial raw materials to keep her economy going.

However, despite this, French factories were able to keep pace and be the second most productive part of the Entente powers. French tanks and aircraft were highly advanced and very competitive on the field. Under the unlikely leadership of a reluctant Reynauld, France continued on the war, afraid of what would happen if she didn't.


Japan:
It is with some irony that the most totalitarian and 'mobilized' society out of the Entente had the least amount of production. But that would be an unfair verdict. Japan's rapid industrialization and modernization was the envy of much of the non-white world and sought to follow her example. Nonetheless, much of Japan's industrial capacity was essentially limited by the fact that Japan industrialization was quite recent.

The "Imperial Aid Association," encouraged by Prime Minister Tojo had monopolized political power within the Empire and faciliated a total mobilization of society. Despite this mobilization, Japan was still hampered by a low industrial base. There was only so much that "total Mobilization" could do when there were only a limited amount of factories.

Raw materials was not a problem for the Empire. Korean iron and Manchurian coal were complemented with Dutch rubber when Japan "secured" Dutch Indonesia in early 1941. There wasn't much that the Dutch Government-in-Exile in London could do but send formal protests. Japan was too important to the war effort. While much of Franco-British production was concentrated on the Italo-German fronts, Japanese troops bore the brunt of combat against China.

Nonetheless, while Japanese industrial capacity was not on par with her European allies, it was still capable of producing advanced design. The Japanese Zero fighter was universally acknowledged as being one of the best designs of the war, being able to go long-rangers and manoeuvre beautifully. It was also a relatively easy and uncomplicated aircraft to fly. Japanese tank design was not so advance, but then again - set against the Chinese made modified CV 38s, they were more than adequate to deal with the opposition.

Despite the long strides that Japan made and the advanced nature of Japanese aircraft design, France and Britain still looked at Japan with a colonialist mindset. When Japanese troops were slowly beaten back across North China over the course of 1941, there was some thinking that "White Troops" could solve the Chinese Question. Japan used this to her advantage in arguing for a "Southern Strategy" whereby Franco-British troops would invade Southern China as the 'tip' of the spear and Japanese troops would follow. Increasingly, in the wake of the strategic stalemate that developed, this was becoming more and more of a serious option...




Sources

(1)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II#Major_weapons_groups

http://ww2-weapons.com/History/Production/

(Part 2: The Axis Powers is next)
 
Wouldn't the WAllies respond to the Japanese calls for "White Troops" on the Asian front with something along the lines of "lolno we've got bigger problems at home."?
 
In addition, it's a myth that the British high command routinely underestimated the Japanese for 'poor eyesight' or other racial reasons. They had liason officers accompanying Japanese troops throughout the 1930s. Many were quite aware of Japanese capabilities. It is just that those reports often did not filter to where they were required, and that the British were facing Japan in a theatre where they were severely overstretched.
 
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