Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

Well, IOTL Iran was occupied because of the Sha´s pro-axis leanings, yes?

ITTL, Iran could receive axis shipping, from there supplies can be transported through Afghanistan. It might be shorter than Turkey/Bulgaria/Romania/Hungarya/Austria.


The axis may have more experience in submarine warfare ITTL, also Germany could have real warplans against France by the time war between Germany and the Franco-english entente, instead of being caught flat-footed as IOTL.
 
Numbers aren’t the only factor, over the course of OTL’s war, China had massive numerical superiority over the IJA. Which was fighting a multi-front war and was in many ways a WW1 army. The KMT forces still got badly mauled. So even if China makes great strides in TTL it wont match the IJA in terms of battle prowess for quite some time. Added to that the fact the IJA is waaay behind the British, Soviets and USA. Who will field truly modern mechanized armies. Backed by modern airforces and much superior military-industrial base and state apparatus.

So, those 10 million troops wont accomplish much, if 8 million of them are armed with pitchforks & muskets. Hell, even in OTL the KMT couldn’t beat the PLA, who were a light-infantry-based, guerrilla army.

Remember, that was KMT of a different era. The KMT of OTL never had a unified command structure, established supply lines, a hospital system, adequately trained officers or the other things that an army needs to be an army. Hell OTL's KMT did arm some of their troops with crossbows
 
The Limits of Endurance II
The Limits of Endurance II

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What remained of the battered Army Group A in orderly retreat towards Peking. Heavy equipment such as artillery and tanks were left behind as there could be no fuel spared to tow them

Although there were trickles of supplies heading towards the Peking pocket, the situation was still desperate for Army Group A. The problem was not so much the Japanese or Manchurian troops, who had dug in and were making no attacks besides harrassment shelling - but the savage weather. The Peking winter which arrived early in December and continued throughout January would be one of the coldest in memory. The unpredictability of the weather was also a problem, as was the heavy snowfall. Some positions were simply burried underneath tonnes of snow and froze to death.

Compounding Field Marshall Bao Chonxi's problem was the long supply lines of the pocket and disrupted communications due to the snow-storm. In order to decrease his supply lines and prevent any more positions from being snowed under Field Marshall Bao ordered a general retreat towards Peking. From Peking a much shorter line could be defended and this also simplified the logistical problem of trying to feed so many troops spread out over a large area with poor communications and freezing weather.

Peking had the advantage of having shelter, troops could shelter in houses and huddle besides civilians who were trapped in the city with them. In any other weather condition, the effect of cramming so many bodies so close together would have been intolerable, in the bitter winter it was a comfort.

"...Things weren't easy in the pocket. We had to share our house with 4 soldiers and it was so cold that it was hard to get the stove going to cook food sometimes, not that there was enough of that to go around...Lots of animals were killed just so we could stay alive... dogs, cats even rats in the sewer were fair game... we ended up getting so desperate that the army resorted to shooting it's mules and horses just to get enough meat. Things were tough, but we were all in this together. I heard that even Field Marshall Bao Chonxi was billeted with a simple family and ate the same meals as they did and slept in the same bed..."
- Wenwei Xei in "We remember: Civilians in the Second Great War"

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Qikou today

The Japanese High Command, although not ordering their troops to move forward in the attrocious weather, decided to find ways to cut the supply chain. They had discovered the fishing village in Qikou and devised a way to cut the supply chain. They would simply land troops there and take it...

Fortunately, Chiang had anticipated such a move and devised a solution - Qikou would be 'leased' as a "naval base" to the Americans for 10 years. Although it was somewhat humiliating in having to give up Chinese soil, it was done willingly and with the reason of protecting supplies to the pocket.

The Japanese leadership were stunned by the audacity of the move. Although they could not and were not willing to risk an all out confrontation with America - they believed they could make the Americans aware of the risks that being involved in this situation would involve. A sort of 'warning shot' was needed by Japan. They couldn't 'accidentally' sink a ship that was too high of a value however, sinking of a Battleship would be too much and couldn't be claimed as 'accidental' - besides there were no battleships in the area. A destroy could be useful to sink - but there were few and it was difficult to claim to have sunk one 'accidentally.' A gunboat? That was the perfect size.

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The USS Panay gunboat

It was a cold morning on January 28 when the USS Panay steamed in view of the Qikou fishing village with it's colours prominently displayed. Suddenly, 6 planes flashed out of the sky and raked the gunboat mercilessly with machine-gun fire. Bombs were launched and the stricken ship sunk with nearly all hands on deck. The ships she was escorting looked in horror at the whole scene...

The Japanese response to the attack was schizophrenic. At first Japan denied responsibility and claimed that the planes were NRA ones - indeed they had been painted with the colours of the Nationalist Air Force, but crucially the attacking planes were not ones that the Chinese Air Force made or had had time to capture yet.

When this line of questioning was exposed, Japan finaly relented. It claimed that the attack was a result of 'rogue pilots' and paid indemnities and publically apologized.

The result of the attack was a loss in support of the Japan lobby in the US and a rise of support for the China lobby. President Roosevelt was able to use the attacks as a justification for increasing military spending and ramping up military production. Internationally, Japan lost even more face and her allies in Britain and France despaired of their inability to control their ally. As January drawed to a close it was clear that the American public and the international community had begun reaching their limits of endurance for what seemed to be the rogueness of Japanese attacks... Something had to give.
 
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The Japanese High Command, although not ordering their troops to move forward in the attrocious weather, decided to find ways to cut the supply chain. They had discovered the fishing village in Qikou and devised a way to cut the supply chain. They would simply land troops there and take it...

Fortunately, Chiang had anticipated such a move and devised a solution - Qikou would be 'leased' as a "naval base" to the Americans for 10 years. Although it was somewhat humiliating in having to give up Chinese soil, it was done willingly and with the reason of protecting supplies to the pocket.
This had me laughing. It was a brilliant move.
And the Japanese ITTL seem to want to shoot themselves in the foot even more than they did IOTL.
 
very very interesting a USA that supports the Axis in Asia but is against them in Europe, this may cause quite a few problems once the war starts
 
Hearts and Minds
Hearts and Minds

As January drew to a close and Japan reeled with diplomatic backlash, the Japanese belatedly realized that with the world's spotlight turned to her - she couldn't continue behaving the way she did - at least not publically. As winter was drawing to a close - The High Command was also making preparations to finally destroy the Peking pocket once and for all. But the sheer number of refugees and civilians were expected to do two things: 1. Slow down the progress of the Japanese arms and 2. Cause negative press - many civilians would be killed and maimed through bombing and shelling and when the Japanese Army finally took the city, the Japanese feared a massacre as frustrated Japanese soldiers took their rage out on defenceless men and women. Neither of the two things were in either Japan's short or long-term interest. Contrary to what later history would portray - it was never in Japan's intention to actually occupy or 'conquer' China, Japan rightly realized that it would virtually be impossible to hold down 500 million people by force. A massacre of Chinese civilians would harden Chinese public opinion against them and prevent any peace deals from being made.

The Japanese also did not want to slow down what would be a very important offensive, especially since the National Revolutionary Army was beginning to mobilize it's forces to try and cut off the Japanese troops. A solution would be to allow the refugees and the civilians to leave the pocket and the city. Although small numbers of refugees and civilians were leaving through Qikou, this was only a small trickle compared to the vast numbers of civilians still in Peking (1-5 million are the figures floated in conventional histories)

However, when the Japanese government attempted to negotiate for the evacuation of the civilians in the pocket, the Chinese government outright refused to talk to them. The Chinese also ignored offers through intermediaries such as the Soviets and the Americans. They were not interested in talking to Japan.

Japan eventually found a solution. They announced that they would 'temporarily allow civilian rail traffic from Peking' to pass by their occupied territories. The Japanese had not destroyed the rail lines of the small portion of China they occupied - utilizing it instead to transport their own supplies - now the Japanese would use the railways as a token of goodwill. There were conditions of course - the Japanese would inspect the trains to ensure that there were only civilians on board - however to prevent further 'incidents' - Japan would leave the adminintration of the evacuation to a neutral third party - perhaps the Americans or the Soviets might like to handle it. Realistically speaking, only the Americans had the people to actually do it and even then they were operating on a shoestring.

Over the objections of the Chinese High Command and even Chiang Kai-shek, Field Marshall Bai Chongxi did one of the bravest acts of his career - he defied authority in an authoritarian regime. Bai organized the evacuation effort with the Red Cross and other American relief agencies. Conditions were desperate in the pocket with malnutrition and starvation beginning to settle in at this point and he felt he had little choice, besides the city could be fought to the death without consideration for the safety and well-being of the civilians. "Let my people go" he said to Chiang, and when Chiang refused he boarded them on trains anyway. By the end of February, Peking was mostly populated by sodliers - but a fifth had refused to go so there was still a substantial civilian component. With winter ending and spring dawning it was nearly time for one of the most bitter battles of the War - the battle for Peking.
 
The Broken Shield : The Chinese Navy in the Early Second Great War
The Broken Shield : The Chinese Navy in the Early Second Great War

"...In the wake of the devastating attacks on December 1, the Chinese navy was forced into a defensive mode - relying on her extensive submarine fleet in an attempt to interdict the Japanese submarine fleet. With her entire surface fleet all but sunk the Chinese submarine forces were all that was left of once growing force.

The Chinese submarine forces had three main objectives in the early part of the war. The first was to interdict Japanese merchant shipping and prevent them from building up supplies and troops in Hainan which would allow the Japanese to launch an invasion of Southern China - a two-front war was not to anyone's advantage.

The second objective was to interdict Japanese supplies and reinforcements to the troops that had landed South of the Peking pocket. Although there was still a supply corridor through Inner Mongolia that could not be interdicted, it was less efficient than by sea and they could easily transport heavy equipment or supplies by camel and mule-back.

The third objective was known as the "Pirrana Doctrine" which involved keeping the most modern and fastest elements of the Chinese submarine fleet in reserve. This doctrine stated that in the event of another naval invasion, the submarine fleet would interdict ASAP and try to sink as many as possible, regardless of losses. What remained of the surface fleet would try and join her in what would be dubbed heroicially as a "self-sacrifice mission" to protect the Chinese coast.

To accomplish this objective, the Chinese navy had few resources at their disposal.

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The first was the "coastal submarine" or what the Chinese would call "the tin tadpole"


This model was derived from the German Type I U-boat and would be the "workhorse" of the Chinese submarine fleet. At the commencement of hostilies, the Chinese navy had 800 of these (including the trainer/minelayer variant) Its chief advantage was that it could be manufactured very easily and very quickly by an unskilled labour force and with unsophisticated machine tools. This was the main reason why the tadpole was the most numerous naval vessel the Chinese had at their disposal (ignoring the V-ships) - the Chinese made very few changes, mostly some rationalizations to make it easier to produce and manfucature. The engine was also upgraded to a faster one that could go 10 knots. The machine gun at the bow was scrapped and the ship was just armed with 2 torpedo tubes with a total of 4 torpedoes. The tadpole class submarine was not built for endurance, but it could do the job close to the coast. The tadpole class was mostly used for interdictions around the Peking pocket. The tadpole class suffered from many problems, most of which were carry overs from the German Type UB I Imperial German Navy submarine that the tadpole was based on. The first significant one was a structural one which all tadpole class submarines would have - the single propeller shaft/engine combination meant that if either failed, the ship would be stranded. The second one was the tendency for the ship to break trim when the torpedoes were fired, crew had to resort to placing ballast and in some cases running to the stern to prevent the ship from literally tipping over. The third one was in the problem of manufacturing, some tadpole submarines were so poorly made that the ship would literally fall apart after it had fired a torpedo. Despite it's many problems the tadpole class would sink the most Entete shipping out of any other item in the National Revolutionary Military's arsenal during the Second Great War. By war's end over 8000 tadpole class submarines would have been built (including trainers, replacements for sunk submarines, upgrades and other variants - including one that was intended to be dropped and picked up from an Airship...)

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The Chinese preferred using the contact mine varient which was placed along likely coastal shipping routes unanchored.

There was another variant of the tadpole class which was essentialy just the tadpole class submarine without any torpedoe tubes. This variant was used as a 'trainer.' Trainee submarine crews generally started with this variant and used them to mine convoy routes, once they had successfully completed enough of these misions - they would graduate to the tadpole class - or if they were exceptionally great to the shark class submarine. Generally speaking, the most used mine of the Chinese Navy was a contact one, unanchored which would be scattered along usual routes. Because the mines were not anchored some foreign civilian ships and even some Chinese ships were lost. But they were generally effective in frustrating Japanese control of the Chinese coast.

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The "Shark" class was derived from German schematics and virtually identical to the Type VII U-boat class

If the tadpole was the workhorse of the Chinese Navy then the "Shark" was the showhorse. Only the most rigorous and sophisticated manufacturing techniques were permitted to be used in the making of these submarines. Built with the help of German naval advisors and engineers the Shark was the creme-de-la creme of the submarine fleet. The Chinese navy had 150 of these at the start of the conflict and 50 were always held in strategic reserve to implement the "Pirhana Doctrine." This class of submarine was used from mundane tasks such as trade convoy interdiction to daredevil sneak attacks on Japanese harbours and some were used to transport strategic documents and communications with China's German allies concerning weapons developments.

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The sinking of the "Kongo" was a David vs Golliath moment in the early days of the Sino-Japanese conflict and would be a real good propaganda boost for the morale of the Chinese people...

Despite the heavy losses that the Japanese navy inflicted upon the Chinese Navy, the submarine fleet began to deal real damage to that of the Japanese merchant shipping. There were even some notable lucky events that caught the attention of the Japanese and made them take the submarine fleet seriously. One such incident was the sinking of the Kongo by the humble Qikou a tadpole class submarine. The Japanese and Chinese were rapidly finding out that sometimes, a broken shield could be more dangerous than an intact one...

Next Update: The Split Arrow: The Chinese Air Force During the Early Second Great War
 
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Excellent update. Real quality TL that explores a stronger china.


And Japan gets a taste of submarine warfare early. Will this impact how they use their merchant fleet and submarines? IOTL they only started convoying very late. Maybe it will be different now. Not that they need to worry about their home waters being screwed with. Yet anyway.
 
who's talking about Merchant shipping?

I'm talking Sub battles.

I'm under the impression that they were comparatively rare IOTL.

But hmm, you'e just given me the idea for something... a deadly contest between an all female submarine crews - the Chinese who sank the Kongo against a Japanese crew who wants them dead. Who will win in this psychological triller/action film?
 
I'm under the impression that they were comparatively rare IOTL.

But hmm, you'e just given me the idea for something... a deadly contest between an all female submarine crews - the Chinese who sank the Kongo against a Japanese crew who wants them dead. Who will win in this psychological triller/action film?

Despite what you see on the movies, sub battles are rare. Even more so in this scenario being neither side has radar or sonar yet. Unless they just randomly bump into each other on the surface, and even then they both end up diving and have no way to track the other.
 
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