Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany: An Axis China Timeline

[CCA]

Great stuff! Love the Italian "contributions". I'm assuming Cavallero (rather a bit of dead wood himself) was more than happy to send the "Old Fool" General De Bono to China. What about Badoglio? He was Cavallero's chief rival and unlike Cavallero anti-Axis. Of course he'll be a lot harder to "deport" than De Bono whose only assets were support of Fascism and friendship with the royals.

Either or both of them gone will affect the Italo-Abyssinian war (which WILL happen at some point...personal Mussie obsession there). Cavallero commanding in Ethiopia is bad news for Italy and good news for Ethiopia, if OTL is any indication of Cav's *ahem* "abilities" as a commander.

Is he incompetent? Damn I was hoping that he'd be marginally more competent than others. Which competent officer would be good to put in charge of the Ministry of War (besides Balbo!)

 

[Geekhis Khan]

From my reading (limited in this regard, admitedly) Cavallero was rather uninspired, lacked any real aggressive spirit, and was overly optimistic to the point of naiivete.

Maybe Baistroichi or Ambrosio, but I can find so little about them as of yet (I'm still researching Italian generals...hard to find the hidden jems among the general muck, I'm afraid). Baist was mechanization-minded and Ambrosio was very young.

Keep in mind that Mussolini promotes those who best tell him what he wants to hear.

Oh, and Balbo as a General: who knows? He died before he could prove either way. He was aggressive and an outstanding organizer, but he might not have had a good tactical or strategic sense.

 

[CCA]

Hmmm - I don't necessarily need an ubergod figure who can fix everything wrong with the Italian military - I just need someone marginally more competent than OTL. They don't have the be brilliant general either - just good administrators. Also Giuseppe Ferari is driving much of these reforms with Cavalerro serving as a useful front man - Cavalerro has the clout - Ferrari has the brains. Ferrari uses his reforms to purge the Italian Army of Cavalerro's rivals + deadwood - Cavalerro gets the credit for reforming the Italian Army.

Thanks to everyone for their kind feedback and comments - as I've said I will get to all of them in the end! I promise

Anyway - without further ado:

________________________________________________________________
Plan "C" Chinese Naval Rearnament

Grand Admiral Chen Chak - Supreme Commander of Chinese Naval Forces

"The Chinese Navy - once like China itself - was once the best of the world. Brave and innovative Chinese sailors like Zheng He once reached even the distant Americas. Chinse revenue fleets traded with Europe itself and bought civilization to the barbarous - enabling them to eventually overtake us. The Chinese Navy will be the greatest in the world once more."
- A drunk and incoherent Chen Chak rambles to the cabinet.

The Chinese Naval Forces (often shortened to Chinese Navy) - much like the Chinese Air Forces - was often created by pioneering men. Men of great vision and determination with the charisma and personality to get funding, equipment and the attention of the army focussed Kuomintang. From an early age Chan Chak showed a badassery that would be his defining characteristic for the rest of his life, following an accident which left his left leg (heh) severely infected - he performed an amuptation. At the age of eight. Without anaesthesia. Like many disenfranchised and jobless youth of his day he became a revolutionary. At the age of 17 he hijacked the composite cruiser Guangjia - his bombardment of the Forbidden Palace in Beijing was crucial to the Xinhai Revolution and the fall of the Qing dynasty. An assasin's grenade in 1913 left him unable to speak. By sheer force of will he was able to speak again in 1928 - defying all known medical logic. Following his recovery he was made "Supreme Commander of the Chinese Naval Forces" beating out the professionally trained, but less badass Admiral Chen Shaokuan. However Chiang could not afford to lose the services of Chen Shaokuan he was offered the post of "Commander of the Submarine Forces" - a significant honour when submarines are your only ocean-going vessel - second only to Chan Chak.

The rivalry of the two men did not only affect their personal relations and the lack of communication between the Submarine Forces and the Chinese Navy it also led to battles of what should be given construction priority.

Current Strengt of Chinese Naval Forces (December 1934):
Capital Ships (Light cruiser and above)

2 X Light Carries ( Post WWI Vintage) CN Guangzhou, CN Shanghai

2 X Battleships (World War I Vintage) - CN Yi Min, CN Sun Yat-sen

3 X Light Cruisers (Semi-Modern) - CN Ping Hai, CN Ning Hai, CN Jing Hai

4 X Light Cruisers (Obsolete Rust-bucket From The Qing Era) - CN Guangjia, CN Guangji, CN Guangbing, CN Guangding

Non-Capital Class:

300 x Coastal Submarines (Based from the German UB Type I Submarine - WWI Vintage)

30 X Electric Long Rage Ocean-Going Submarines Type 1 (A culmination of illegal German research and experimentation of submarine types in China. Would later be the foundation of the German Type I Submarine)

500 x V-Ships (A very, very, very poor man's/ hobo's destroyer/minelayer/minesweeper/floating target practice)

50 X Destroyers (Modern - based on German designs)

1000 x miscelaneous craft (including yachts armed with 20mm AA)

Under Construction/In Reserve:

1 X Battleship (Modern - The Battleship Dante Alighieri is being modernized by La Spezia Royal Yard Italy to be sold to the Chinese Naval Forces)

2 X Carriers (One being constructed by Shanghai Naval Yard, One Being Constructed at Guangzhou Naval Yard)

500 x V-Ships (The Chinese Naval Forces have enough guns to equip 500 more trawlers/merchantmen/whatever they can pick up)

Plan "A"

Supreme Commander Chan Chak proposed what dry, bureacratic and unbadass historians would later label "Naval Plan A." In fact Chan Chak's original plan and memorandum was titled "Naval Plannings of Greatness for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of China." Chan Chak proposed this fleet strenght:

6 x Battleships (Need to modernize the 2 existing battleships, need to await delivery of Italian Dante Aligehri, need to buy/build three more battleship)
6 x Carriers (Need to build 6 carriers)
12 x Light Carriers (Need to build 10 Light Carriers)
100 x Light Cruisers (Need to upgrade 4 light cruisers, need to build 93 light cruisers)
180 X Modern Destroyers (Need to build 150 more!)
1000 X "Modern" V-Ships (would have needed to build 500 and convert 500...)
300 x Coastal Submarines
30 X Long Range Submarines

Although Chiang liked Admiral Chak's plan - there was no way he was going to fork out the obscene ammounts of money Plan "A" would have required. Chiang also sensed an Italian attempt to make more money by the fact that China would have needed to purchase many of these ships (from Italy) if Plan A was to be completed by 1939.

Plan B

Admiral Chen Shauokan attempted to ingratiate himself with Chiang by proposing Plan Bruno with the help of Wilhelm Canaris. History remembers this plan as "Naval Plan B" Chen proposed a very modest increase in fleet strenght. The existing numbers of capital and non-submarine ships could be kept at the same level. Chen advocated a large and powerful submarine force with 500 "Long Range" Submarines and 500 "Coastal Submarines."

Plan C

Faced with two options that he didn't like very much - Chiang decided to come up with a different plan. Plan Chiang - which history now remembers as Plan C. He proposed this fleet strenght:

3 x Battleships
3 x Carriers
6 x Light Carriers
30 x Light Cruisers
100 x Modern Destroyers
500 x "Modern" V-ships
500 x Coastal Submarines
150 X Long range submarines

Only time would tell whether Chiang had chosen the correct route....

 

[Some Bloke]

Good update full of colourful real life characters as always
very ambitious naval plans and one of the most singularly creative Borat references to date

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Hmmm - I don't necessarily need an ubergod figure who can fix everything wrong with the Italian military - I just need someone marginally more competent than OTL. They don't have the be brilliant general either - just good administrators. Also Giuseppe Ferari is driving much of these reforms with Cavalerro serving as a useful front man - Cavalerro has the clout - Ferrari has the brains. Ferrari uses his reforms to purge the Italian Army of Cavalerro's rivals + deadwood - Cavalerro gets the credit for reforming the Italian Army.

That could work rather well for your purposes. A clever organizer using a popular general's ego to perform the streamlining he wants. I'm assuming "Guiseppe Ferrari" is an ATL general? The only person I can find by that name is an Italian Historian-Philosopher who died in 1876. Otherwise Grazioli is a potential modernizer, as is Baistroichi (or Balbo! ).

PS: Nice update! I'd drooling over the idea of a Chinese WW2 fleet! Can't wait to see what happens with Japan IITL.

Chen Chak sounds like the type of historical character I like. Found this site: http://www.mwadui.com/HongKong/HK_Chan.htm You're dead on on his "badassery!"

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

How usefull is that fleet going to be? Naval forces would defend the coastal regions from an invasion from Taiwan while submarines would hit shipping between japan and the mainland but except for that, what else? How is anti-tank weapon production going and which side will strike first? China might be preparing an unification war but Japan might well attempt to "secure Manchuria from Chinese Imperialism".



Also, it might be interesting if some German units fought on the Chinese side in the coming conflict.

 

[Sergio Van Lukenstein]

Plan C

Faced with two options that he didn't like very much - Chiang decided to come up with a different plan. Plan Chiang - which history now remembers as Plan C. He proposed this fleet strenght:

3 x Battleships
3 x Carriers
6 x Light Carriers
30 x Light Cruisers
100 x Modern Destroyers
500 x "Modern" V-ships
500 x Coastal Submarines
150 X Long range submarines

Only time would tell whether Chiang had chosen the correct route....

Looks like Chiang is placing on emphasis on defensive capability. I have a feeling that time is going to prove him correct.

 

[ComradeTovarich]

"Naval Plannings of Greatness for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of China."

*cringes with laughter in the presence of awesomeness* Nice... So did not see the Borat reference coming

Plan C

Faced with two options that he didn't like very much - Chiang decided to come up with a different plan. Plan Chiang - which history now remembers as Plan C. He proposed this fleet strenght:

3 x Battleships
3 x Carriers
6 x Light Carriers
30 x Light Cruisers
100 x Modern Destroyers
500 x "Modern" V-ships
500 x Coastal Submarines
150 X Long range submarines

Only time would tell whether Chiang had chosen the correct route....

By the looks of things, this appears to be an ATL version of Hitler's naval ineptitude. But then again, only time will tell.

Loved the inclusion of Grand Admiral Chen Chak. Such a kickass character can rarely be found in the annals of military history (although his uniform looks plain for a Grand Admiral...).

Keep up the good work, CCA. This TL just keeps getting better and better (Yes, you can quote this if you ever decide to run a publicity campaign to propel your TL to greatness ). I'm really looking forward to the Second World War part.

 

[Sergio Van Lukenstein]

By the looks of things, this appears to be an ATL version of Hitler's naval ineptitude. But then again, only time will tell.

If China is going to attempt to be OTL Japan, it's a bad plan. But, if they just want to have a bunch of submarine patrols and mines to protect shipping and defend against an amphibious assault while they concentrate on building infrastructure and waging land war, it could work.

 

[Hendryk]

From an early age Chan Chak showed a badassery that would be his defining characteristic for the rest of his life, following an accident which left his left leg (heh) severely infected - he performed an amuptation. At the age of eight. Without anaesthesia. Like many disenfranchised and jobless youth of his day he became a revolutionary. At the age of 17 he hijacked the composite cruiser Guangjia - his bombardment of the Forbidden Palace in Beijing was crucial to the Xinhai Revolution and the fall of the Qing dynasty.

Half the fun of writing an ATL is digging out figures like this one and giving them a greater prominence.

 

[The Kiat]

The Chinese Navy in WWII, an interesting concept. Seems like quite an industrial challenge for a warring states era China to meet.

 

[Hendryk]

The Chinese Navy in WWII, an interesting concept. Seems like quite an industrial challenge for a warring states era China to meet.

In my own TL, it's a challenge China failed to meet--too many misplaced priorities. I'm enjoying reading a TL in which China successfully develops a strong navy in time for the second Sino-Japanese war.

 

[CCA]

In my own TL, it's a challenge China failed to meet--too many misplaced priorities. I'm enjoying reading a TL in which China successfully develops a strong navy in time for the second Sino-Japanese war.

Well - who said that this TL's navy is going to be successful?

It's very, very possible for this fleet to be Pearl Harbored - remember that China doesn't have much of a maritime tradition at this point and they're taking most of their cues from the Regia Marina. (and their submarine doctrine from the Kriegsmarine)

Regia Marina. Taranto.

It's very, very plausible, say for Japan to initially remain neutral in the initial China-Manchuoko conflict only to strike quickly and decisively...

In the words of Sun Tzu:

“Let your plans be dark and as impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

Not that any of the above are spoilers or anything. No

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

Nice update,


I gather that the primary purpose that the chinese navy will serve in the end will be to prevent or seriously curtail a Japanese invasion of the mainland. I don't think anyone expects the Chinese to defeat the Japanese in any large scale blue water engagements. I suppose a lucky shot from a submarine on a CV or BB is believable, maybe even two lucky shots, but that's about it. This may actually do the militarists some good in Japan, if they get kicked out of china quickly they may be forced to fix the problems with the IJA, and they will probably not get involved with any disastrous war with the USA.

I do however wonder, is the US going to be getting involved in WWII at all in this TL?

 

[The Vulture]

Okay, I finally managed to catch up after getting back from wandering around in the Mojave. Great stuff as always, this TL is fascinating!

With China's growing militarism and increasingly obvious ties to fascist ideology, what is the popular (rather than political) sentiment in the US and Commonwealth (particularly India)?

 

[tallwingedgoat]

The OTL asymmetric Chinese navy built by Mao was planned from lessons of WWII - which was to avoid capital ships China can't defend and rely on huge numbers of submarines and fast torpedo boats, plus land based naval aircraft.

For 1930s China I would go with German submarines and Italian MAS boats, plus Italian mini-subs and underwater demolition divers trained by the Italians.

The Italian army actually had some excellent light artillery ideal for the Chinese theater. One critical weapon was a good anti-tank gun that would remain useful against evolving Japanese armor. The Italians had the dual use anti-tank/infantry Breda 47mm modello 35 which was an outstanding design that was both powerful and unusually light weight. They also had the Obice da 75/18 modello 34 pack gun. Light pack guns were found to be ideal for south China's mountainous terrain, the modello 34 was one of the most advanced mountain guns of the era.

 

[Nivek]

continuing the series of asnwers

Hi again CCA, well posting for two updates again(I'm in University Again, With my Studies of Economics and maybe lock for a minor in economical history and geopolitics but that is hard in my educational system, Colombia) and now start my analisis:

4.Foreing Influence is good, specially if is 'Ideological alike'(Corpotativist Authoritarian with some degree of cheap democracy) and using Italy like a 'better than nothing' spare for the 'bitter' relations with Germany, and that show who China is open to foreing 'exchange' and the americans will do nothing specially they didn't have nothing to worry(i think is american is more isolated than before and PH in TTL is almost ASB unless Japan have to commit the 'mandatoty national suicide') and when the chinesse paid their shopping with the silver, nobody have to change(if the Japanesse strike first here like OTL, the strike will be worst for them in the Economy&political plane)

and for the naval update(become more and more naval entusiast):

that admiral is one of the Historical Chinesse personality who fall in darkness in OTL but is awesome one(in fact he will have a very good role here in this update and in the future of TTL), well the plans was very good(but like your said, both have their reason to not be chosen),for me, Chiang(now having a very military cold-head thanks to his years in germany and figthing in WW1) is very rational(the between point having the best in both areas and the best who can affort china for the moment) but like you're said, China will hard some naval lesson in the hard way thanks to their arch-rival, Japan, will use to maximun all their naval knowledge, and can lead to some interesting butterflies.

Still don't give spoiler unless are necessary to check the pausabilty(very real for now) and enjoy the peaceful time, necesary to prepare to the storm who come(the *WW2) and again waiting for more updates and the ww2 scenario.

well i said good bye, the tl is improving every day and wish the best of success for this(like won the Turtledove, is hard but possible)

Att
Nivek von beldo

 

[Jay]

Do not stop with this. Keep going.

 

[CCA]

Replies to people: (not an update)

A lot of replies to get to - as I don't know how to multiquote and it will get confusing replying to the same people - I'll just reply to the ones with questions! I do appreciate everyone's feedback though - a special thanks to Nivek who's been commenting since this TL started lol.

OKH
Are you suggesting that China will go commie?

- It depends what you define as Commie Maybe.


Won't America cease support for China once the latter starts rampaging into Manchuria? Even then it probably won't matter to Chiang right?

- Well if there's money to be made making a tidy profit. I think USA will deal with China and Japan.

I'm sure a League of Nations plebesite or a leaked poll somewhere will reveal that the oppressed masses of Manchuria will want to be reuinted with the Motherland will emerge.

Like you said - it won't matter - the Revolution must be, shall be and will be completed.


Nivek:

P.S. How are the India Situation, they will still listen the dove of Ghandi or accept the most realisitc alternative of the Netaji (maybe if the Sitzkrieg and fall of france is worst for the Entente)

- The India situation will be... a volatile one in this TL. There's going to be lots of money and arms poured down India in an attempt to start a mutiny. Will they succeed? Read on

P.S.2. what will do John Rabe(aka the Good man of Nanjing) in TTL,???

The Good German of Nanking will have a prominent role to play later. Good men will always be good men who speak out against evil in all forms...

P.S you're a men or women???

- Birn, born and bred male

OKH:

*POSSIBLE SPOILER* Nuke? *END POSSIBLE SPOILER*

*Spoiler* That or a space programme. Could be both! * End Spoiler*


This gives rise to the question of "Will Germany still carry out the Final Solution?"

Yes and no. Hitler is still anti-semetic, but he's a lot more of a normal family person. So his most destructive tendencies have been curbed somewhat. I'm toying with the idea of making Geli Raubel his morality pet with Geli even being a member of the "White Rose" movement. Of course as she's the favourite niece she won't be harmed.

Would you mind including in your next update an order of battle for the Chinese Navy?

- Done

Let me guess... Good ol' Zhang did not have the aircraft and anti-air artillery capable of taking out the airships right?

- Think strato airships Not even planes can touch some of these babies. Of course the strato-airships are far and few in between. The airships are mostly used as makeshift railways - being connected by wires to provinces where railways are too hard to build. Imagine a wire with a zeppelin connected and hooked to it. Airships will also be used for airborne assaults (at least until the Chinese learn that dropping paratroopers using giant gas filled flamable baloons may not be the smartest of ideas.

And may I assume that these were mainly used for bombing missions? Or were they used as aircraft carriers?

A bit of both. I'll do an update on "Chinese Air Force Modernization" soon. Let's just say that Chiang develops a Hitleresque obsession with "Wonder Weapons" with the construction and development of an Airship capable of bombing London from Chinese territory one of the key priorities...

Wyragenyournameisreallyhardtotype

Second Unification war? Japan may not remain neutral if Mandchuko is under attack and if that case, how will the Chinese navy be usefull beside defending coastal regions from naval attacks?

It may or may not

Hashasheen:

Thanks for the links! Those bat bombs could perhaps be dropped from some strato-airship bombers...

Dathi:

Well, China will be a case of Villains With Good Publicity. They have genuine historicall grievances against both the French, English and Japanese - the wife of the Head of State speaks flawless English and is very PR-savvy. Let's just say that TTL Axis will play a lot more on the whole "National Liberation of Oppressed Minorities" thing...

Geekis Khan:

That could work rather well for your purposes. A clever organizer using a popular general's ego to perform the streamlining he wants. I'm assuming "Guiseppe Ferrari" is an ATL general? The only person I can find by that name is an Italian Historian-Philosopher who died in 1876. Otherwise Grazioli is a potential modernizer, as is Baistroichi (or Balbo! ).

PS: Nice update! I'd drooling over the idea of a Chinese WW2 fleet! Can't wait to see what happens with Japan IITL.

Chen Chak sounds like the type of historical character I like. Found this site: http://www.mwadui.com/HongKong/HK_Chan.htm You're dead on on his "badassery!"

- Thanks!

As far as I'm aware he's real. I've only really found a reference to this Ferari character in Croesus' excellent "A Fitter Italian Military"

Wyragen:

How usefull is that fleet going to be? Naval forces would defend the coastal regions from an invasion from Taiwan while submarines would hit shipping between japan and the mainland but except for that, what else? How is anti-tank weapon production going and which side will strike first? China might be preparing an unification war but Japan might well attempt to "secure Manchuria from Chinese Imperialism".

Also, it might be interesting if some German units fought on the Chinese side in the coming conflict.

- Thanks, The fleet is either going to be very useful or end up as a white elephant and is sunk in the first 2 weeks of the conflict. Keep in mind that the Sino-German alliance is present at high levels. Even with the 'cold snap' in Sino-German relations, the Chinese General Staff and the German General Staff are still envisioning sweeping aside the English fleet to link up in the Indian Ocean (with Italian help)

The Kiat:

The Chinese Navy in WWII, an interesting concept. Seems like quite an industrial challenge for a warring states era China to meet.

- Just remember that China hasn't been warring states since 1928. Also the industrial base for a Navy has been developing in South China for quite some time. That's why most ships will be built by Guangzhou. Only Guangzhou shipyards (and Shanghai) are really capable of building Capital class ships.

Dan Reiley:

I do however wonder, is the US going to be getting involved in WWII at all in this TL?

*Spoiler*
- American Intervention - or at least the threat of it - will end the war
*Spoiler*

The Vulture:

With China's growing militarism and increasingly obvious ties to fascist ideology, what is the popular (rather than political) sentiment in the US and Commonwealth (particularly India)?

- The Popular sentiment in the US is quite sympathetic to China. Most of the chattering and middle classes find Madame Chiang's Southern Accented - weekly radio broadcasts quite compelling...

IN the Commonwealth - NZ and Australia are convinced that the Chinese Yellow Peril will take over the world. They beef up defence spending accordingly. In a coming Imperial Conference the defence strategy for a two-front war against China and Germany are outlined...

In India? Chinese agents whisper plots of rebellion and supply money and guns to anyone who will listen. India is stirring...

Nivek:

well i said good bye, the tl is improving every day and wish the best of success for this(like won the Turtledove, is hard but possible)

- Are you leaving ?

Thanks for all your support so far - I really do appreciate it - you've been commenting since from the start and you've always kept me going. If I'm not misreading your post and you are leaving then you shall be missed. Good luck with your studies (I'm personally doing an honours degree in Politics and Economics and I know how hard the workload can be) and thanks for all your feedback.

If I do win the Turtledove that will of course be amazing. But I will personally be voting for Geekhis Khan's TL. (Link: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=128375 )
His work shows a level of research and polish that is normally reserved for finished TL's and I take my hat off to him and his excellent TL. He deserves to win. Maybe Version 2 of Chiang Kai-shek goes to Germany will have a shot!


Right. Update up soon. (In about an hour if AH.COM doesnt crash...)

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Well, gosh. Wow. I'm honestly humbled, CCA. Your TL is one of my new favs and well deserving of the T'Dove. I can honestly say I will have no remorse if I lose in this TD race when up against titans like this, Hendrik's, and Dr. Strangelove's. Thank you, and by all means don't think any less of your own TL. This one's going great.



On the TL: I did some research for you...well, for both of us since this benefits my TL as well . Cannistrano's Dictionary of Fascist Italy has been a huge help (I'll see if Ferari is in it tonight). I may have been hasty in calling Cavallero "dead wood"; Cannistrano notes him as one of Mussie's "most competent" Generals...keeping in mind how relative of a term that is when Badoglio is your unit of comparison.

He began as an ally of Badoglio's but they had a falling out over basic power politics. OTL Badoglio "won" for a while and became Chief of Staff while Cav went into semi-retirement. Later Bad got the boot and Cav came in - just in time to take the blame for Greece, pretty much, though he had managed to stabilize the front and only pressed an ill-fated counteroffensive at Mussie's orders. ATL I'm assuming some random butterfly has allowed Cav to win out, so Bad gets the semi-exile to China. Very plausible.

What Cav means is a slightly better position for Italy. He was in favor of Mechanization/Motorization and other modernization reforms; Bad, a conservative old-school infantry-and-artillery guy, was not, and it took a while to clear Badoglian tendencies from the Army OTL. Here, I can see Cav possibly championing Federico Baistroichi's Mechanization earlier than OTL. He might also work better with Balbo and the RA, though the RM will likely remain aloof and uncooperative if there are no changes in command there.

Possible butterflies for the Italian military: earlier use of tanks, possibly allowing for late development of a decent medium tank in small numbers. Possibly better air-ground coordination if Balbo's successor can play well with others. Might not get anywhere close to Blitzkreig territory, but you could see it from there with binoculars and a clear line of sight.

Remaining limitations: Industry is still limited and inefficient (and corrupt). Mussie is still in charge and this will likely mean more of OTL's impulsive, unfocused strategy. Cav himself was optimistic to the point of naiveté, as I mentioned, and will pursue any Mussie-driven strategic course with Pollyanna-like confidence that it will all work out in the end.