Charles XII - options

Everybody knows how things ended up for Charles XII of Sweden but what realistic options had been available to him?

1. OTL scenario. The results are well-known. To Charles' defense, it must be said that not only him but pretty much nobody (including the Russian side) in 1700 could anticipate a true scope of the Russian military buildup and it was quite reasonable (especially without a well-developed intelligence service) to assume that a single serious defeat would put them out of business for quite a while. His fundamental mistake was in keeping ignoring the seemingly clear symptoms of this buildup and leaving the Baltic provinces practically undefended allowing Peter's armies to devastate their countryside and to take their cities and fortresses one by one.

2. Diplomatic scenario - breaking the coalition. In 1699/early 1700, after finding out about the "Northern Alliance" (officially formed by the late 1699) Charles makes a pact with Peter ceding him Ingria and Karelia (parts that Peter was going to get by Treaty of Preobrazenskoe) in exchange for breaking with Saxony and Denmark. Options: (a) Narva is included and (b) Narva is not included but Peter is allowed to build a port on Ingria's coast. Highly unlikely, based upon what we know about Charles' personality but, if happens, could keep Russia out of war long enough for Charles to deal with Saxony and Denmark (IMO, at that time none of them was considering Russia as a critical military factor). While dealing with Saxony, Charles can compensate himself for a territorial loss by annexing Courland. Objectively speaking, the only place of a non-zero value for Sweden except for Narva, a port through which Russian imports/exports were coming (and Sweden was getting the custom dues).

3. Denmark - Riga - Narva. After kicking Denmark out of war, Charles goes to Riga (much closer than Narva and a much more important port), which is being besieged by the Saxons.
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After siege of Riga is lifted, the Saxons are retreating leaving Courland to Charles (as in OTL). Not sure if an absence of the Russian corps of 10,000 would make Saxon situation much worse: it seems that only 400 Russians had been actively participating in the OTL operation. Remaining Saxon troops (approximately 10,000) are retreating into neutral Prussia (as in OTL). Charles has approximately 14,000 so it is unlikely that he is going to invade Prussia without getting significant reinforcements.

He still has to do something about Narva, which is besieged by the Russians. There are 2 main options: 1st, he goes there with all his force (as he did in OTL before Riga) and 2nd, after finding that Russian performance at the siege is quite pathetic and considering Saxons as the main opponent, he is just sending by the sea reinforcements and supplies to Narva's garrison (as he did try during the 2nd siege) while concentrating on defeating August.

If he considers August as his 1st priority (which was the case in OTL for few next years), then the 2nd option and the following OTL-like chance is more probable. While the entertainment is going on, Charles is probably losing the Baltic provinces (as in OTL).

OTOH, if he gives a priority to protecting his possessions in Livonia and Estonia than he arrives to Narva personally (with how it was going, the siege would either be still dragging on or completely abandoned) and defeats the Russian army (if it is still besieging Narva). Invasion deep into Russian territory with the forces he had was impractical and, anyway, the goal at that point was anything but clear (in OTL he was hoping to regain the lost Baltic territories by defeating Peter in Ukraine, which was a questionable strategy, to put it mildly). Even capture of Pskov and Novgorod did not make too much practical sense because Sweden already owned everything of a value on the Eastern Baltic coast (in OTL Sweden was holding Novgorod during the Time of Troubles but gave it away rather easily: the only economically valuable thing was possession of the coastline).
What's important is to prevent the Russian invasion into the Baltic provinces, so he is strengthening Swedish military presence there (unlike OTL where Schlippenbach was left with a pathetic force) and starts works for upgrading the existing fortifications including Narva (part of its fortifications had been quite old) and Noteburg (which is controlling access to Neva from Ladoga Lake). Perhaps even bothers with creation of a small flotilla on Ladoga and improves rudimentary fortifications of Nyenschantz (site of the future St-Petersburg). Of course, they could be used as the bargaining chip during the eventual peace talks.

This could be a prolonged conflict more or less along the lines of the previous Russian-Swedish wars with a possible (worst case scenario) result of a Swedish loss of Ingria but Estonia and Livonia remaining in the Swedish hands and so are the revenues from the Lithuanian exports. Presumably, soon after Narva Peter was trying to negotiate a peace deal with Charles in 1701 but was ignored. With war going nowhere (unlike OTL where the 1st victories in the Baltic provinces had been achieved in the early 1701), he would probably be tempted to make a peace offer as well and it is up to Charles to accept or decline (I would not completely reject possibility of acceptance).

This of course, leaves August more or less off the hook but he failed in achieving his main goal, conquest of Estonia and Livonia. If Charles is completely ignoring neutrality of the PLC, he can try to take Danzig, which seems to be more practical than chasing Ausgust all over the PLC. Anyway, occupation of Courland already expands the Swedish possessions of the Baltic coast.

Some other options?
 
Even capture of Pskov and Novgorod did not make too much practical sense because Sweden already owned everything of a value on the Eastern Baltic coast (in OTL Sweden was holding Novgorod during the Time of Troubles but gave it away rather easily: the only economically valuable thing was possession of the coastline).

What about strategic value? Shortened borders/a staging area for future operations is worth quite a lot, certainly to a martial king like Charles XII. What about Arkhangelsk? It was Russia's only northern port before St petersburg. Is it viable as a swedish demand (doubt they could take it)
he can try to take Danzig, which seems to be more practical than chasing Ausgust all over the PLC. Anyway, occupation of Courland already expands the Swedish possessions of the Baltic coast.

How far south would the swedes try to conquer from Courland? Danzig would be a nice addition to their toll ports on the northern seas, but I can't see Charles going for more of poland.
 
What about strategic value? Shortened borders/a staging area for future operations is worth quite a lot, certainly to a martial king like Charles XII. What about Arkhangelsk? It was Russia's only northern port before St petersburg. Is it viable as a swedish demand (doubt they could take it)


How far south would the swedes try to conquer from Courland? Danzig would be a nice addition to their toll ports on the northern seas, but I can't see Charles going for more of poland.
I’m not quite sure if Pskov and Novgorod would have any strategic value besides being bargaining chip at the peace talks (which happened before). Actually, Swedes tried to attack Archangelsk from the sea but operation failed.. As for the future operations the proposed scenarios are based on somewhat optimistic scenarios in which Charles is reasonably sane but it seems that even in OTL he was not looking for the territorial acquisitions (Curland and Danzig could go as a continuation of the earlier legacy of converting Baltic into Swedish lake but what would be the practical purpose of continued was for war’s sake? ). In OTL his invasion of Russia was something of an act of desperation: the war was going on without a visible end and a big part of the Baltic provinces had been lost so he was trying to remedy things by doing what he did to August,pushing enemy to the corner. But in the case of Russia both distances and opponent’s forces had been much greater, support in Ukraine did not materialize and he was going nowhere. Anyway, in the most favorable scenario, reaching and capturing Moscow would be pointless, as was demonstrated during Time of Troubles. Ditto for burning it: it was burning regularly during the peace time. They’re wasplenty of strategic space to the East of Moscow within European Russia and enough of the human reserves to keep raising the new troops while Charles was almost running out of the resources.

In Poland Danzig had a clear strategic and economic value because it was controlling grain exports.The rest not too much.

But,honestly, I think that Sweden already had been stretched almost to extreme and its ability to keep the new acquisitions for long time is questionable.
 
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Everybody knows how things ended up for Charles XII of Sweden but what realistic options had been available to him?

3. Denmark - Riga - Narva. After kicking Denmark out of war, Charles goes to Riga (much closer than Narva and a much more important port), which is being besieged by the Saxons.
`
After siege of Riga is lifted, the Saxons are retreating leaving Courland to Charles (as in OTL). Not sure if an absence of the Russian corps of 10,000 would make Saxon situation much worse: it seems that only 400 Russians had been actively participating in the OTL operation. Remaining Saxon troops (approximately 10,000) are retreating into neutral Prussia (as in OTL). Charles has approximately 14,000 so it is unlikely that he is going to invade Prussia without getting significant reinforcements.

He still has to do something about Narva, which is besieged by the Russians. There are 2 main options: 1st, he goes there with all his force (as he did in OTL before Riga) and 2nd, after finding that Russian performance at the siege is quite pathetic and considering Saxons as the main opponent, he is just sending by the sea reinforcements and supplies to Narva's garrison (as he did try during the 2nd siege) while concentrating on defeating August.

If he considers August as his 1st priority (which was the case in OTL for few next years), then the 2nd option and the following OTL-like chance is more probable. While the entertainment is going on, Charles is probably losing the Baltic provinces (as in OTL).

OTOH, if he gives a priority to protecting his possessions in Livonia and Estonia than he arrives to Narva personally (with how it was going, the siege would either be still dragging on or completely abandoned) and defeats the Russian army (if it is still besieging Narva). Invasion deep into Russian territory with the forces he had was impractical and, anyway, the goal at that point was anything but clear (in OTL he was hoping to regain the lost Baltic territories by defeating Peter in Ukraine, which was a questionable strategy, to put it mildly). Even capture of Pskov and Novgorod did not make too much practical sense because Sweden already owned everything of a value on the Eastern Baltic coast (in OTL Sweden was holding Novgorod during the Time of Troubles but gave it away rather easily: the only economically valuable thing was possession of the coastline).
What's important is to prevent the Russian invasion into the Baltic provinces, so he is strengthening Swedish military presence there (unlike OTL where Schlippenbach was left with a pathetic force) and starts works for upgrading the existing fortifications including Narva (part of its fortifications had been quite old) and Noteburg (which is controlling access to Neva from Ladoga Lake). Perhaps even bothers with creation of a small flotilla on Ladoga and improves rudimentary fortifications of Nyenschantz (site of the future St-Petersburg). Of course, they could be used as the bargaining chip during the eventual peace talks.

This could be a prolonged conflict more or less along the lines of the previous Russian-Swedish wars with a possible (worst case scenario) result of a Swedish loss of Ingria but Estonia and Livonia remaining in the Swedish hands and so are the revenues from the Lithuanian exports. Presumably, soon after Narva Peter was trying to negotiate a peace deal with Charles in 1701 but was ignored. With war going nowhere (unlike OTL where the 1st victories in the Baltic provinces had been achieved in the early 1701), he would probably be tempted to make a peace offer as well and it is up to Charles to accept or decline (I would not completely reject possibility of acceptance).

This of course, leaves August more or less off the hook but he failed in achieving his main goal, conquest of Estonia and Livonia. If Charles is completely ignoring neutrality of the PLC, he can try to take Danzig, which seems to be more practical than chasing Ausgust all over the PLC. Anyway, occupation of Courland already expands the Swedish possessions of the Baltic coast.

Some other options?

The Ukraine thing was questionable, but he was driven by the economic and logistic considerations. The Baltics were exhausted and Charles XII traveled light, to transport a 40,000 men army, with just as many non-combatants through a region fought over before (and more than once) over the last eight years would not have been fun, so he went for Moscow, because of course that's what you do in a war - you go for the capital - then came the geography of the western fringe of the Russian Empire, which pretty much funnels you through several land "gates" between rivers or forces you to ford them. Then, on this shitty and no-good, terrible and bad path to Moscow, due to terrible weather, scorched Earth strategy executed by Menshikov, things deteriorated and as he went into winter quarters, freezing and starving, the idea of a fertile Ukraine full of supporters ready to join his side come spring naturally seemed glorious and wonderful and he would emerge victorious, because he would not lose and could not lose (until he would capture/liberate Rome, per the army camp prophecies).

But looking at the records (as parsed and grokked by other historians), Tsar Peter (the not yet Great) had a pathological fear the Moscow campaign might all be a ruse and that at any point, Charles would turn North somewhere along the journey to and through the Gates and march on Peter's beloved St. Petersburg. It is why Menshikov seemed to have taken such an active hand in the Ukraine-Belarus portion of the campaign, while Tsar Peter was waffling on when to commit to it with his resources and what to do with it. Suppose someone in the staff of Charles XII pounces on that fear and asks the forces stationed in Finland to make a bolder thrust to St. Petersburg? Not just a dumb show which they attempted in OTL, but a heavy show of force with second- and third-rate troops making a grand spectacle of marching on the Tsar's beloved city.

Peter would have flown North with all he could muster, leaving the situation in the front as follows: Menshikov to ride herd over the majority of the Southern forces, Sheremetiev to command of the other, a smattering of others with small independent commands, and Peter's first-born in charge of Smolensk. Peter's kid was a twit with a, uh, complicated relationship with his father (he was eventually tortured to death during interrogation, on Peter's orders). And all but Menshikov, and possible exception of (blows hot and cold) Sheremetiev, were no match for anyone the Swedes had to offer. It leaves Menshikov as the most effective force in the South. Now, Menshikov was effective. Not in the grand tactical plans on the battlefield, but with a wonderful low animal cunning and an ability to exploit the fears and secrets of everyone around him. He rose from nothing to being the second most powerful man in Russia and very much knew he could be sent crashing down to nothing at any moment. But should Menshikov be brought to battle by Charles XII, without Peter's troops and Peter in the general vicinity, Charles XII would win. And I know this because in OTL Charles XII did win when he came up on Menshikov in Battle of Holowczyn. Yes, in that OTL battle it was less Menshikov and more Repnin, but still Menshikov was on the scene and had significant forces and could do nothing and had to skedaddle and pretend it was a victory in his letters.

So, we have Charles XII operating in a theater where he was winning and did win, against an opponent he could beat and had beaten, while the attention of the Tsar was drawn to the North.

The plan has many, many drawbacks, of course. At a certain point, even the paranoia of the Tsar would have limits. And Charles XII still seemed to have learned his resupply methods from a shitty unbalanced videogame. And the much vaunted boost in manpower from Ukraine was not happening (for a variety of reasons). But a feint to the North and either a harder drive to Smolensk (crossing at say, Orsha) or going to winter quarters in Ukraine earlier and with more secure food source, with Tsar Peter drawing near rather than being near would have made some things different.
 
The Ukraine thing was questionable, but he was driven by the economic and logistic considerations.
The Baltics were exhausted and Charles XII traveled light, to transport a 40,000 men army, with just as many non-combatants through a region fought over before (and more than once) over the last eight years would not have been fun, so he went for Moscow, because of course that's what you do in a war - you go for the capital - then came the geography of the western fringe of the Russian Empire, which pretty much funnels you through several land "gates" between rivers or forces you to ford them.

Then, on this shitty and no-good, terrible and bad path to Moscow, due to terrible weather, scorched Earth strategy executed by Menshikov, things deteriorated and as he went into winter quarters, freezing and starving, the idea of a fertile Ukraine full of supporters ready to join his side come spring naturally seemed glorious and wonderful and he would emerge victorious, because he would not lose and could not lose (until he would capture/liberate Rome, per the army camp prophecies).

To clarify things a little bit, he was marching from the PLC territory along Grodno - Minsk - Mogilev line so going to the Baltic provinces did not have any sense. In these provinces Lewenhaupt was raising the troops (and supplies). The plan was for them to met at Mogilev but it took Lewenhaupt more time than expected (as you said, the provinces were exhausted) to assembly a supply train of 4,500 (by the Russian account over 7,000) wagons and Charles could not stay longer in the area already short of the supplies. So, instead of advancing in Smolensk direction (a direct road to Moscow) he went South in expectation to find supplies there. The supplies were, indeed, ready in Mazepa's capital, Baturin. However, well before Charles got there Menshikov took Baturin, destroyed the supplies (and executed pretty much everybody who was there including Peter's loyalists). Expectation of a broad support of the anti-Petrian uprising did not materialize and Charles stuck for a winter in a hostile area with a need to do a forseful foraging, which did not add him popularity among the locals.


In a meantime, Lewenhaupt was stopped by the Russians at Lesnaya and reached Charles with a fraction of his troops and without supplies.

But looking at the records (as parsed and grokked by other historians), Tsar Peter (the not yet Great) had a pathological fear the Moscow campaign might all be a ruse and that at any point, Charles would turn North somewhere along the journey to and through the Gates and march on Peter's beloved St. Petersburg. It is why Menshikov seemed to have taken such an active hand in the Ukraine-Belarus portion of the campaign, while Tsar Peter was waffling on when to commit to it with his resources and what to do with it. Suppose someone in the staff of Charles XII pounces on that fear and asks the forces stationed in Finland to make a bolder thrust to St. Petersburg? Not just a dumb show which they attempted in OTL, but a heavy show of force with second- and third-rate troops making a grand spectacle of marching on the Tsar's beloved city.

In 1708 12,000 (or 14,000) of the Swedish-Finnish troops under command of Georg Lybecker marched toward St-Petersburg supported by 22 ships. Unfortunately for them, there were 24,500 Russian troops in the area and after the indecisive battle at Neva and a failed attempt to take Kotlin Island stalemate followed and, after running of the supplies, Swedes had to retreat. When Lybecker's troops had been boarding the ships, they were suddenly attacked by the Russians and suffered considerable losses. Talk of a "bolder trust" and "dumb show" is pretty much pointless: the Swedes used for this operation forces which they had but the Russians had twice bigger numbers and were not running at a sight of the approaching enemy.

As for Peter, he was afraid of Charles but his initial position was chosen to prevent Charles' advance along the line Smolensk - Moscow and the following moves had been reaction on Charles' maneuvers. He could not know what Charles' plans are (even if because Charles did not finalize them until September) so it was not really a "waffling" but a reasonable attempt to understand the situation. His strategy was to minimize risk of a major battle, which meant strategic retreat combined with a scorched earth tactics. It actually worked forcing Charles to abandon the initial plan and march South leaving Lewenhaupt isolated.


Peter would have flown North with all he could muster, leaving the situation in the front as follows: Menshikov to ride herd over the majority of the Southern forces, Sheremetiev to command of the other, a smattering of others with small independent commands, and Peter's first-born in charge of Smolensk. Peter's kid was a twit with a, uh, complicated relationship with his father (he was eventually tortured to death during interrogation, on Peter's orders). And all but Menshikov, and possible exception of (blows hot and cold) Sheremetiev, were no match for anyone the Swedes had to offer.

While I'm not a big fun of Peter (or Charles), your scenario assumes that he is a complete idiot, which he was not. He understood quite well that Charles represents the main problem and, after all, St-Petersburg at that time was just a tiny assembly of the wooden houses with a fortress (AFAIK, Lybecker did not have a heavy artillery) and one more fortress, Kronshlot, on Kotlin Island which in OTL Swedes failed to take. If needed, the whole site could be rebuilt easily but Charles' invasion was a strategic problem. So most probably Peter would stay with an army. If needed, Apraxin's forces in Ingria could be strengthened from elsewhere.

Now, about Alexei, what you wrote is a traditional (and popular :teary:) baloney concocted by Peter's propaganda to justify his murder. There is no reason to consider him a "twit" and at that time, at the age of 18, he was actively involved in his father's affairs raising the recruits and supplies in Smolensk area and then being in charge of Moscow fortification works.

While neither Sheremetev nor Menshikov had been anywhere close to being a military genius each of them had a record of beating the Swedes so I would be careful about "anyone the Swedes had to offer". Lewenhaupt soon would be defeated at Lesnaya, Schlippenbach was beaten more than once and Rehnskiöld would make a complete mess of Poltava (in which battle the Swedish generals acted as lunatics).

The plan has many, many drawbacks, of course. At a certain point, even the paranoia of the Tsar would have limits.

And the plan is based upon an assumption that it was limitless. :)

And Charles XII still seemed to have learned his resupply methods from a shitty unbalanced videogame. And the much vaunted boost in manpower from Ukraine was not happening (for a variety of reasons). But a feint to the North and either a harder drive to Smolensk (crossing at say, Orsha) or going to winter quarters in Ukraine earlier and with more secure food source, with Tsar Peter drawing near rather than being near would have made some things different.

Charles was seemingly doing whatever he could but after victory at Golovichins he started facing a stronger resistance. After Menshikov's cavalry had been found at Soj it became clear that the food will not be available in that direction and after a cavalry encounter at Smolensk (where Charles almost got killed) he, according to Axel Gyllenkrok, was considering the following options:

1. Advance on Moscow - impossible because the Russians will keep retreating leaving the scorched earth behind. Anyway, attack on Smolensk without a heavy artillery looked as a hopeless enterprise.
2. Retreat across the Dnieper to Witebsk - again no food because Russians had been staying there until June thus leaving no supplies (anyway, just few days later Russians burned Witebsk, Orsha, Mogilev, Dubrovno and Gorki).
3. Go to Ukraine where should be plenty of supplies. Count Piper expressed an opinion that the Cossacks will switch to the Swedish side.

As a result, it was decided to go South without waiting for Lewenhaupt.

I already addressed situation on Ukraine.

Anyway, thanks for the opinion.
 
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