Charles VI lives longer?

So, basically most of the threads I could find connected to this period were either "Prussia and Co. dismembers Austria" or, sometimes "Austria & Co. dismember Prussia". I wanted to ask for your opinion with a different idea. What if HRE Charles VI lived a little longer? Let's give him another five or six years. What happens next?

1) I suppose Austria won't be very effected but at least they'll recover somewhat from the Turkish war of 1737-1739. However, Maria Theresa will still be challenged. Any other butterflies?

2) Frederick II of Prussia is definitely just waiting for an opportunity and will probably use the same excuse to invade Silesia. Any changes for Prussia in the meantime? And also, the involvement of Bavaria and Saxony depends on Frederick's success which will probably happen similar to OTL. However, OTL Charles VII died seriously ill in 1745. I believe he could live a littler longer not having to run across half of Germany and dying in poverty so he's there to make an attempt on the Imperial title.

3) What about Spain and the situation in Italy? IOTL Elisabeth Farnese did everything to get an Italian principality for her son but if Philip V kicks the bucket as in OTL (and he most definitely will) Fernando (or better said, Barbara of Portugal) will completely reverse that policy. Even in OTL they kept on with the war halfheartedly because they were already stuck with it and because Fernando feared his brother might make an attempt for the throne if he stays in Spain. Without Spanish involvement in Italy how will things change? Does Sardinia make different alliances?

4) The "War of the Jenkins' Ear" is ongoing at the time. France never planned to get really involved but both Spain and GB have additional resources to send to the Caribbean if they're not busy in the Mediterranean like they actually were. Any changes there?

5)What happens when Fleury dies? By 1743 he was very old and will not live any longer so a number of changes for the French policy are possible. There is no illness of Louis XV at Metz and maybe no Madame Pompadour (although her ambition alone is proof enough she can get into the King's bedroom). Will France remain de facto neutral in the British-Spanish war or will Louis be convinced to take a different role?

6) I'm not much of an expert at British politics but who will be in charge in a different War of the Austrian Succession when it eventually happens? Carteret, Newcastle? Any changes there?

7) The war also had some influence on the Baltic. Will the Hats' war happen without a wider European conflict in the meantime? Could Elisabeth's coup against Anna be butterflied away? Russia could potentially turn out to be an important player in such a war.
 
So, basically most of the threads I could find connected to this period were either "Prussia and Co. dismembers Austria" or, sometimes "Austria & Co. dismember Prussia". I wanted to ask for your opinion with a different idea. What if HRE Charles VI lived a little longer? Let's give him another five or six years. What happens next?

1) I suppose Austria won't be very effected but at least they'll recover somewhat from the Turkish war of 1737-1739. However, Maria Theresa will still be challenged. Any other butterflies?

Karl decides to somehow start listening to Eugen of Savoy.his wife (both of whom were smarter than he IMO) that the Pragmatic Sanction is a worthless piece of paper so stop giving away our stuff to people who aren't gonna be true to their word anyway? Not likely, but it'd be what's needed.

2) Frederick II of Prussia is definitely just waiting for an opportunity and will probably use the same excuse to invade Silesia. Any changes for Prussia in the meantime? And also, the involvement of Bavaria and Saxony depends on Frederick's success which will probably happen similar to OTL. However, OTL Charles VII died seriously ill in 1745. I believe he could live a littler longer not having to run across half of Germany and dying in poverty so he's there to make an attempt on the Imperial title.

Fritz won't do anything about Silesia. Yet. He invaded when the emperor died on purpose. If Karl hadn't died, Fritz would've waited for an opportunity to strike. Probably in the next Austria war with whomever (and Karl was a dolt, so it might not be long in coming). Interestingly enough though, Karl surviving might mean that when Anna of Russia dies, there's less chance of Elizabeth Petrovna's coup. Her coup was financed by the French, who were interested in getting an anti-Austrian ruler of Russia. Austria was in chaos so it couldn't really do anything. It probably still won't do anything, but it's not impossible that the threat of the emperor getting involved for his nephew is sufficient enough in 1740 as it was in getting Pyotr II to succeed in the 1720s.

3) What about Spain and the situation in Italy? IOTL Elisabeth Farnese did everything to get an Italian principality for her son but if Philip V kicks the bucket as in OTL (and he most definitely will) Fernando (or better said, Barbara of Portugal) will completely reverse that policy. Even in OTL they kept on with the war halfheartedly because they were already stuck with it and because Fernando feared his brother might make an attempt for the throne if he stays in Spain. Without Spanish involvement in Italy how will things change? Does Sardinia make different alliances?

Carlos III of Spain was confirmed as king of Naples by the treaty of Vienna that ended the war of the Polish Succession. I don't say that Italy will be quiet, but the main movers in D. Filippo, duke of Parma's life were first his mother, then his wife (who unsurprisingly, hated her mother-in-law). If it had just been up to Filippo, he'd never have even left Spain, much less become king of "Belgium" (as his wife angled for with Maria Theresia in the 7YW).

Would Isabel Farnese do anything. Probably, she'd want her son confirmed as duke of Parma - the emperor's not giving that. However, he hoped for his daughter, Maria Anna (the oft-forgotten sister of Maria Theresia) to make a more prestigious diplomatic match than she did with Charles of Lorraine. Maybe Karl dusts off the Treaty of Seville and marries Maria Anna and Filippo, then hands them the duchy of Parma. Probably not, but it's a possibility. (Karl wasn't a good politician, AFAIK one contemporary Austrian statesman commented "he's the emperor who lost Spain, who lost Bavaria, who lost Naples and now that he's dead, has lost the empire for his daughter".

4) The "War of the Jenkins' Ear" is ongoing at the time. France never planned to get really involved but both Spain and GB have additional resources to send to the Caribbean if they're not busy in the Mediterranean like they actually were. Any changes there?

Not sure.

5)What happens when Fleury dies? By 1743 he was very old and will not live any longer so a number of changes for the French policy are possible. There is no illness of Louis XV at Metz and maybe no Madame Pompadour (although her ambition alone is proof enough she can get into the King's bedroom). Will France remain de facto neutral in the British-Spanish war or will Louis be convinced to take a different role?

The fact of the matter, Louis will still tire of Mme de Chateauroux (and her sisters) as he did. Which means La Pompadour might still get her moment in the sun. Her not getting the maitresse-en-titre post would help French politics (maybe, don't know who her replacement might be, could be someone with even less intelligence and more influence). It's a pity for the arts, but if it can keep France solvent, why not.

6) I'm not much of an expert at British politics but who will be in charge in a different War of the Austrian Succession when it eventually happens? Carteret, Newcastle? Any changes there?

No idea

7) The war also had some influence on the Baltic. Will the Hats' war happen without a wider European conflict in the meantime? Could Elisabeth's coup against Anna be butterflied away? Russia could potentially turn out to be an important player in such a war.

Answered above.[/QUOTE]
 
Karl decides to somehow start listening to Eugen of Savoy.his wife (both of whom were smarter than he IMO) that the Pragmatic Sanction is a worthless piece of paper so stop giving away our stuff to people who aren't gonna be true to their word anyway? Not likely, but it'd be what's needed.

If he listen to Eugene's advice he would have an army 140K strong, which would probably be a deterrent strong enough to prevent Fritz from being excessively adventurous. :cool:



Fritz won't do anything about Silesia. Yet. He invaded when the emperor died on purpose. If Karl hadn't died, Fritz would've waited for an opportunity to strike. Probably in the next Austria war with whomever (and Karl was a dolt, so it might not be long in coming). Interestingly enough though, Karl surviving might mean that when Anna of Russia dies, there's less chance of Elizabeth Petrovna's coup. Her coup was financed by the French, who were interested in getting an anti-Austrian ruler of Russia. Austria was in chaos so it couldn't really do anything. It probably still won't do anything, but it's not impossible that the threat of the emperor getting involved for his nephew is sufficient enough in 1740 as it was in getting Pyotr II to succeed in the 1720s.

To start from the end, succession of Peter II had been agreed upon as a part of a deal which brought Catherine I to the throne so emperor's "involvement" did not play any significant role.

As for Elizabeth, her coup would probably happen even within that scenario: she was working for years (during Anne's reign) to make herself popular among the Guards and regency of Anna Leopoldovna became extremely unpopular at no time. Munich, who was playing "a strong man" after dismissal of Biron, had been outmaneuvered and replaced by Osterman who, during his long and illustrious career seemingly never had a single original idea in his head and clearly was not suitable as a de facto head of the government. Switch to pro-Austrian policy did not mean that the French and Prussian connections disappeared and, anyway, "Petrian card" became, again, important after the reign of Empress Anne (who came to power because everybody had been fed up with Peter's legacy but few decades later the same legacy became popular again).
 
Fritz won't do anything about Silesia. Yet. He invaded when the emperor died on purpose. If Karl hadn't died, Fritz would've waited for an opportunity to strike. Probably in the next Austria war with whomever (and Karl was a dolt, so it might not be long in coming). Interestingly enough though, Karl surviving might mean that when Anna of Russia dies, there's less chance of Elizabeth Petrovna's coup. Her coup was financed by the French, who were interested in getting an anti-Austrian ruler of Russia. Austria was in chaos so it couldn't really do anything. It probably still won't do anything, but it's not impossible that the threat of the emperor getting involved for his nephew is sufficient enough in 1740 as it was in getting Pyotr II to succeed in the 1720s.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I mean Frederick would use the same excuse (Charles' death) when it happens (later than OTL). And I'm sure Charles wouldn't make any moves to greatly strengthen his army. He never showed such intentions in his lifetime.

As for Elizabeth, her coup would probably happen even within that scenario: she was working for years (during Anne's reign) to make herself popular among the Guards and regency of Anna Leopoldovna became extremely unpopular at no time. Munich, who was playing "a strong man" after dismissal of Biron, had been outmaneuvered and replaced by Osterman who, during his long and illustrious career seemingly never had a single original idea in his head and clearly was not suitable as a de facto head of the government. Switch to pro-Austrian policy did not mean that the French and Prussian connections disappeared and, anyway, "Petrian card" became, again, important after the reign of Empress Anne (who came to power because everybody had been fed up with Peter's legacy but few decades later the same legacy became popular again).

Can Elizabeth pull it off with no foreign support? IMO there would be no French support if there is no wider European war and the French could probably rein the Swedes in to prevent them from helping any coups and provoking wars when it wasn't neccessary
 
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I mean Frederick would use the same excuse (Charles' death) when it happens (later than OTL). And I'm sure Charles wouldn't make any moves to greatly strengthen his army. He never showed such intentions in his lifetime.

Can Elizabeth pull it off with no foreign support? IMO there would be no French support if there is no wider European war and the French could probably rein the Swedes in to prevent them from helping any coups and provoking wars when it wasn't neccessary

Gotcha. I also didn't mean Karl would start strengthening his army. He believed as late as 1739 that he'd outlive his wife and would thus be able to sire male heirs. The point's been made before in another thread that Maria Theresia's marriage contract specifically stated that she was heiress, but that if Karl remarried and sired a legitimate male heir (wasn't aware he'd sired any illegitimate contenders), she'd move down the ranks to second-in-line.

As to Elizabeth Petrovna, I think Alex has a point. But I'm also wondering about whether France would deliberately try to pull this off if the rest of Europe isn't in flames already. Russia's pretty far off to merit such drastic intervention were it not war time. However, I do think that Anna Leopoldovna's pretty much an unknown cipher at the time, and it, in theory, shouldn't be too difficult to get a pro-French person(s) into her household to influence her.

Can Lisette do it without foreign support? Probably, AFAIK it wasn't as though France sent troops or anything to help (besides funnelling her money IIRC through Lestocq - I think that was her doctor's name)). Anna Leopoldovna needed a princesse des Ursins character who'd throw the Germans out and her on the mercy of the Russians (since Anna was no Ekaterina Velikaya) in order for her government not to be seen as rule by foreigners IMO. Sadly, there was no such person. Everyone was in it for themselves.
 
Did Charles VI ever consider divorcing Elisabeth Christine and marrying again? Would it not have been easier to get the Pope to grant him a divorce than to be as dependent on the Pragmatic Sanction as Charles was in OTL?
 
Did Charles VI ever consider divorcing Elisabeth Christine and marrying again? Would it not have been easier to get the Pope to grant him a divorce than to be as dependent on the Pragmatic Sanction as Charles was in OTL?

Probably it never entered his head to do so. He seemed rather confident that he'd outlive her. Not sure why, though. And what would he use as an excuse, anyway? They're not childless (they had three daughters and a son OTL, of which two daughters survived); she did convert before marrying him (so he's not married to a heretic); and I don't know what else he could use as an excuse for an annulment, and with Henry VIII the pope showed himself less than willing to grant an annulment had every t been crossed and every i dotted.
 
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I mean Frederick would use the same excuse (Charles' death) when it happens (later than OTL). And I'm sure Charles wouldn't make any moves to greatly strengthen his army. He never showed such intentions in his lifetime.



Can Elizabeth pull it off with no foreign support? IMO there would be no French support if there is no wider European war and the French could probably rein the Swedes in to prevent them from helping any coups and provoking wars when it wasn't neccessary

IMO, this is a wrong way of a reasoning. French interest in Russia was preceding the War of the Austrian Succession: Мarquis de la Chétardie arrived in St-Petersburg in 1639, before Charles' death and France and Austria had been hostile powers well before that. Young Fritz attacked Austria well before the French physically got into the picture but the general war was going on for few month by the time of Elizabeth's coup with government of Anna Leopoldovna not (AFAIK) expressing any open intention to join it.

On the financial side. "Physical base" of the plot had been quite narrow, Preobrazensky regiment and few people from Elizabeth's inner cycle. The coup itself had been carried by a single company. Vodka was not so expensive that Elizabeth would not be able to buy it without French subsidies and it was seemingly used mostly on the small-scale occasions like baptism of the soldiers' children; the important thing was not the volume but perception: return of the more or less legendary "good old times" when the ruler was "father/mother" of the Guards (NONE of the "Leib Company" members played any noticeable military or political role during Elizabeth's reign).

On a political side. the 1st plot in Elizabeth's favor had been discovered (and its leader executed) in 1637, during the reign of Anne I and well before Charles' death. Fieldmarshal Munich acknowledged that the officers arresting Biron during the coup of 1740 had been expecting that the power os going to be transferred to Elizabeth. Strictly speaking, by the testament of Catherine II she had to inherit after Peter II and selection of Anne had been a political plot by the members of "Supreme Council" (who were seemingly not too fond of the Peter's memories even if all of them made very good careers during his reign). Rule of Empress Anne was unpopular due to the alleged "German influence" (even if most of the highest governmental positions had been held by the Russians) and regency of her niece ("reign" of Ivan VI) made situation only worse because neither she nor her husband understood Russian internal situation (the same attitude later doomed Peter III) and did not bother with creation of the reliable supporting base. Munich's dismissal removed the last obstacle to Elizabeth's coup: fieldmarshal was not really liked by the troops but he was a figure of unquestionable authority and great talents; his replacement, Chancellor Osterman, was hardly more than overqualified clerk. And, of course, an idea to send the Guards to war with Sweden was a political suicide (ditto for Peter III and plans to send the Guards to war with Denmark).

On a military side. The war was not going too good for Sweden before the coup and the things went from bad to worse after Elizabeth came to power. True, she signed an armistice with Levenhaupt but within 2 months broke it. War continued till 1743, Russian troops occupied most of Finland and by the peace of 1743 Elizabeth "recommended" candidacy of the heir to the Swedish throne and Sweden confirmed conditions of the Peace of Nystad, with some additional losses. Surely, the war created a nice "trigger" for Elizabeth's coup but it would happen anyway so any conversation about Swedish help to the coup belongs more or less to the legend.
 
Gotcha. I also didn't mean Karl would start strengthening his army. He believed as late as 1739 that he'd outlive his wife and would thus be able to sire male heirs. The point's been made before in another thread that Maria Theresia's marriage contract specifically stated that she was heiress, but that if Karl remarried and sired a legitimate male heir (wasn't aware he'd sired any illegitimate contenders), she'd move down the ranks to second-in-line.

As to Elizabeth Petrovna, I think Alex has a point. But I'm also wondering about whether France would deliberately try to pull this off if the rest of Europe isn't in flames already. Russia's pretty far off to merit such drastic intervention were it not war time. However, I do think that Anna Leopoldovna's pretty much an unknown cipher at the time, and it, in theory, shouldn't be too difficult to get a pro-French person(s) into her household to influence her.

This assumes the existing French interest and why bother with the influence thingy if there was a legitimate (as far as "legitimacy" was applicable to Russia of this period) candidate to the throne who is already working on endearing herself to the Guards (plot of 1737 well precedes the time frame of the War of Austrian Succession)? Keep in mind that this (to be found) pro-French person would have to deal with the existing influence of pro-Austrian Vice-Chancellor Osterman while with Elizabeth situation was resolved in a fast and simple way: Osterman and Munich had been speedily sentenced to be broken on the wheel and then beheaded but then sentence was commuted to lifelong banishment, to Berezov in Siberia.

Can Lisette do it without foreign support? Probably, AFAIK it wasn't as though France sent troops or anything to help (besides funnelling her money IIRC through Lestocq - I think that was her doctor's name)). Anna Leopoldovna needed a princesse des Ursins character who'd throw the Germans out and her on the mercy of the Russians (since Anna was no Ekaterina Velikaya) in order for her government not to be seen as rule by foreigners IMO. Sadly, there was no such person. Everyone was in it for themselves.

The whole "German" thing was mostly a matter of perception and historical demagoguery. There were numerous Russians in the top administrative positions (and most of them did not distinguish themselves in any good way) while Biron did not have any official position and it is not even silly to suggest that he was the only influential personage in the XVIII century Russia taking the bribes and using all possible ways to enrich himself. Then goes "PR" part (quote from Wiki): "he is said to have caused over 1000 executions, while the number of persons exiled by him to Siberia is estimated at between 20,000–40,000. Meanwhile, the common people were ground down by taxation." To get things in a proper perspective, execution or exile (after physical punishment) was due to a person who made a mistake in writing imperial title or to someone who dropped on a ground a coin with Anne's profile (face up - to step on empresses' face, face down - to put her face into the dirt) or to someone who said something not quite complimentary about her, etc. Which means that there was a big number of the willing informants (Russians) ready to report these terrible transgressions against the supreme power. I doubt that Biron knew 1000 people in Russia, not to mention 40K. And as far as the "taxation" was involved, it is not like Peter I cared too much about not "grounding down" his subjects. BTW, 2 most prominent (in administrative area) Germans of Anne's reign, Munich and Osterman, had been hired by Peter I.
 
Thanks for the comments!
OK, so we can agree the coup and the Russo-Swedish War go similar as IOTL. What about any other changes? AFAIK, there was a contest around the Duchy of Berg where Frederick of Prussia had a claim so he could focus on that while Charles is still alive. Would that cause any consternation in the Empire?
 
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