Charles the XII wins at Poltava

If Charles had won at Poltava somehow what would've followed would the Swedish capture Moscow and force Peter to surrender?
 
A peace deal with the Swedes in a position of strength, sure. I sometimes like to call Karl the "Swedish Hannibal", and if he can avoid his own Zama, then he'll be even further remembered as a superb general and Swedish national hero.
The terms are likely to be:
-Sweden keeps Ingria (the region around Petrograd), Estonia, Livonia, and gains Courland from Poland-Lithuania.
-Poland-Lithuania gains the Smolensk and Kiev regions.
-An independent Cossack Hetmanate is estabilished.
-Possibility of an alliance of convenience between Sweden, P-L, and Turkey, to contain possible Russian expansionism in the west. While a defeat by the hands of Karl would certainly weaken Tsar Peter I's position, Russia will get rid of the boyars and modernize sooner or later, albeit whether or not they will be presented with another window of opportunity is debatable.
 
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1. There will likely be a coup or a revolt against Peter in this scenario. All his modernisations has failed, and he has lost a big war. He's versatile and might still come out on top though.

2. Sweden takes Courland and Polish Livonia (Letgallia), while Poland-Lituania under Stanisław I Leszczyński regains Smolensk and Kiev.

3. Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate under Ivan Mazepa set up under Polish-Lithuanian and Swedish protection.

4. War reparations from Russia to Sweden, possibly with Sweden holding Archangelsk and Pskov as guarantees until the debt is paid.
 
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