.....As for the decision... the smart heads in Sweden will likely choose merchants, but the irrational (and popular) voices will likely choose to beef up the army for round 2.
Given two wars just ended, those mercenaries might even be cheaper. Though if I was Sweden, I’d go for just the Danes, bribing Russia with Ships or such.
Russia will target P-L for sure...after they improve their economic situation (which will take some time). Besides, there will be a war within a few decades that will either accelerate or delay a Russo-Polish war.
Since I’m no expert: does Russia produce enough usable materials & transport capability to trade via these ports? And do they have the shipping from those ports?
And how’s Britain responding to the vastly different European map?