Charles (Karl) XII goes east.

[Rubicon]

In late November 1700 Karl (Charles) XII of Sweden defeated a Russian army four times the size of his own army at Narva.


The Swedish army went into winter quarters and received substantial reinforcements from the Swedish mainland and Finland. Then it turned south to defeat the Saxon army that had besieged the Swedish city of Riga, but abandoned the siege with the arrival of the Swedish army in the Baltic's.


In July 1701 the Swedish army crossed the river Düna and defeated the mainly Saxon army which tried to block the crossing. Originally it was planned by Karl XII and his generals to afterwards march eastwards and at least seize the Russian city of Pskov (or Pleskov as the Swedish then called it).
But instead of this the Swedish army marched south and fought a war in Poland for the next six years giving Russia and Tsar Peter I to reorganise his army and eventually defeat the Swedish army at Poltava.


So lets assume that that instead of being “just” a victory, the crossing of Düna is a smashing success and the Saxon army is during the rout pursued and destroyed by the Swedish cavalry. This allows the Swedish army to turn its attention eastwards from 1702 and onwards.


What happens then? Does Pskov fall in 1702, Novgorod in 1703 and Moscow in 1703-04? Or does Tsar Peter pull a miracle out from his coat-sleeves and manage to defeat the Swedish army at its prime on the field of battle? Or does he call for peace in time to save him from humiliating defeat?

 

[The Arbiter of Europe]

Karl XII received a truce offer from Augustus of Saxony but turned it down because he viewed him as a dishonest immoral character. Karl was very stubborn and refused to make peace on terms other than his. So unless the battle of Dunamunde is a Narva type victory but that would be almost impossible due to the nature of the battle, i severely doubt Augustus would agree to the loss of his Polish throne. Another important factor to consider were the Polish armed forces, there neutrality needed to be secured before anything else.

Interestingly enough at the battle of Klissow just a year later it almost turned into a complete rout before the Saxon commander decided to retreat. This battle had a far better chance of being a decisive victory and had it been overwhelming im fairly certain Augustus would have surrendered.
Even at this point with only 13,000 men I believe Karl could have defeated Russia had he chose to do so, the Russian army was still under reform and the Swedes could win at 3 to 1 odds(battle of Holowczyn).
Unfortunately for Karl and Sweden he failed to see who the real enemy was.

 

[Jurgen Wullenwever]

How would the economics of a campaign in Russia be, compared with the OTL campaign in Poland-Lituania? It is sometimes said that the czar saw that the Swedes could only afford to continue the war with money taken from Poland, and during the later part of the war, post-1709, the Swedes seem to have lacked money for everything.

 

[The Arbiter of Europe]

How would the economics of a campaign in Russia be, compared with the OTL campaign in Poland-Lituania? It is sometimes said that the czar saw that the Swedes could only afford to continue the war with money taken from Poland, and during the later part of the war, post-1709, the Swedes seem to have lacked money for everything.

If Sweden had won in 1702 or 1703 it wouldnt have mattered. Most of the money problems occurred after most of Swedens territory had been occupied and she had to raise completely new armies.