Charles III of Spain remains in Italy

One of the lesser known but enthusiastic members of the Enlightened Despot Club, Charles first ruled in Italy where he respectively managed to make reforms to the country, become quite popular, but also acquitted himself well in the War of Polish and Austrian successions.

Now, it seems that the beginning of a Spanish nation-state is said to be tied to him as well, so the butterflies would stretch on even to the American revolution and probably the Wars of South American Revolution as well.

Though, it seems that after his death many if his enlightened reforms did not really stick. Still, with such a figure of history. What if he had stayed in Naples and Sicily? What if someone else had inherited Spain? Could he have been able to affect the Italian Unification and could his descendants have continued his ideals and reforms?
 
One of the lesser known but enthusiastic members of the Enlightened Despot Club, Charles first ruled in Italy where he respectively managed to make reforms to the country, become quite popular, but also acquitted himself well in the War of Polish and Austrian successions.

Now, it seems that the beginning of a Spanish nation-state is said to be tied to him as well, so the butterflies would stretch on even to the American revolution and probably the Wars of South American Revolution as well.

Though, it seems that after his death many if his enlightened reforms did not really stick. Still, with such a figure of history. What if he had stayed in Naples and Sicily? What if someone else had inherited Spain? Could he have been able to affect the Italian Unification and could his descendants have continued his ideals and reforms?

Best scenario would be to have Fernando VI have a son, thus keeping Carlos in Naples. Besides that I'm not sure just what would change. Fernando VI was a great reformer as well, so no doubt his son would continue his work. However, in Naples, we would have an active King for decades, not a regency and later domination by Queen Maria Carolina, so who knows how this would effect Naples. At the very least, I can see it becoming the dominate Nation on the Italian Peninsula.
 
Hmmm. That could work.

I was thinking that then his son Chales who would have succeeded him as King of Spain dies of Smallpox, instead of His younger son Gabriel who succeeds Fernando in Two Sicilies after a brief reign after dieing during one of his hunting trips. I am not sure if the butterflies would prevent him from marrying Infanta Mariana Victoria of Portugal but the butterflies assumingly prevent her and their last son from dieing from smallpox scant months before his father dies in Spain in OTL.

Now some say Gabriel was the most intelligent of Charles' sons and I haven't fully researched his character but let's assume the actions of Charles in Two Sicilies allows him to shore up Two Sicilies and make it even more a center of culture and improve its economic standing and political standing as well as make changes to Gabriel's character. So by the time he comes to the throne in say 1790 tensions are already on the rise in France and across Europe. The stages of the French Revolution play out similarly as in OTL but for Gabriel they have a profound effect of reconsidering the course of the Two Sicilies and Enlightened Despotism leading Gabriel to write a treatise supporting the idea of a general move toward Constiutional Monarchy via British Parlimentary system, but notably places emphasis on a strong somewhat populist monarchy, and criticizes a Republican transition citing the Reign of Terror, the American revolution, and the Haiti War of Independence. Supporting a gradual and controlled lean toward 'Constiutionalism' this boosts his prestige with Italians throughout Italy who begin to gravitate toward the Two Sicilies as opposed to Savoy and Piedmont.

Also notably he does not share the same dislike of Great Britain as his father did and makes diplomatic reapprochments toward them. He will also try to bring together the monarchist lower classes and the republican leaning nobility together in support of him.

This still leads to the issue of the later period of the French RevolutionaryWars and the Napoleonic Period. Naples will likely still be invaded during the Third Coalition and this will probably lead to a exile in Sicily, but a revolt in Naples that did not materialize in OTL. In part prompted by Gabriel pre empting the Sicilian nobles demand for a Parliment in OTL to his brother by declaring a Parliment in Sicily and Naples. Which even further puts the ball in Naples court for an Italian unification. Bogged down in Naples sometime over the next coalitions it leads to French troops withdrawing and Naples regained. Probably Naples is invaded again over the next coalitions but by the end Two Sicilies remains independent of Austrian influence and has a hand in influencing Post-Napoleonic Italy toward an eventual reunification.
 
Probably spend the post-Napoleonic period rebuilding Two Sicilies before his death, one of his sons or son which would be Infante Pedro Carlos who in OTL married from the House of Braganza like his father.

Would it be called the House of Bourbon-Braganza for Gabriel and Pedro Carlos if they ruled Two Sicilies? Either way, Pedro Carlos would rule Two Sicilies and generally continue his father's operation mode. Given that the Two Sicilies has placed itself to ride out the revolutionary wave over the next century they likely will not have the devastating and precarious revolts that's truck much of Italy, but their primary concern would be toward Austria and Savoy if they were unable to remove Austrian Influence in Italy, which would get it into a war with Austria over Italy Naturally then Two Sicilies would cultivate alliances with Great Britain, Prussia, and the Ottomans to balance Austria. Perhaps even France.

A war in the 1830s over Northern Italy would occur, if the Two Sicilies are successful it would mean their domination over the region and marginalization of Savoy who would look to France for help which would possibly freeze Sardinia and Piedmont from joining Italy for sometime. The Crimean war if on schedule may develop into a war if Austria and Savoy attack the Two Sicilies.

Which begs the question what would an Italy under this Two Sicilies look like? It's possible Italy would form under a system similar to Germany.
 
I think that Gabriel and Pedro Carlos (Peter Charles) will be known as a members of the house of Bourbon -Two Sicilies. (However if they don't end up on the throne their appanage might be added.)

Otherwise an interesting PoD. :)
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Another possibility, albeit less likely, would be for Charles' youngest brother Luis to successfully claim the Spanish throne when Ferdinand IV dies. His rather abortive attempt OTL was based on him being the only son of Philip V left in Spain since Charles and Philip were ruling in Italy. If he somehow, miraculously succeeded then Charles would remain in Naples. Perhaps if Ferdinand made him the heir in a will. The other powers probably wouldn't care so long as the balance of power is maintained and Naples remains separate from Spain but each still under the Bourbon dynasty.

That would then eventually put OTL Charles IV of Spain on the throne in Naples as Charles VIII and VI when Charles VII and V (OTL III of Spain) dies. Still, he'd probably be no worse than Ferdinand I, they both seemed to be dithering, ineffectual and totally dominated by their wives. So in the long run it probably doesn't improve Naples that much if it still gets entangled in and then thrashed during the Napoleonic Wars. On the other hand it may really hurt Spain.
 
Hmmm interesting.

Still, fighting with Napoleon would be the issue. For that Two Sicilies has to revive its relationship with Great Britain after realizing that France would no longer protect it against Austria and Spain lets them wave in the wind. That Gabriel is also tied to the House of Bragzana of Portugal which is also aligned with GB.
 
Would there even be unification between the North Italian States and the 2 Sicilies?
A stronger Two Sicilies would cause more intervention in the north of the peninsula to counter them so we could see an Italy in the North set up initially in opposition and allying with but not unifying with them.
 
Gabriel died of smallpox on November 23, 1788, before the death of his father Charles (OTL Charles III of Spain), who died on December 14, 1788.

Regarding the best assumption that could trigger that Charles VII of Naples does not inherit the Spanish throne, I think it is: Barbara de Braganza, Ferdinand VI's wife, had a stillborn son in 1733. If that child had survived his father, he (probably Philip VI had been called by his paternal grandfather, or John III, by his maternal grandfather) had established a new line between the Bourbon dynasty that could avoid Spain's bad luck that had with kings like Charles IV and Ferdinand VII.
 
That is why I suggested he, his wife, and youngest son (his eldest survived and went on to Brazil in OTL) due to Butterflies not have the same fate while his elder brothers take his place. Snuffing out the line Ferdinando would have sired for Gabriel's lineage. Less tied to Austria hopefully.
 
I would work on such a TL but the general weakness of it for me is a lack of in depth knowledge of the Italian economy, I know generally during this time frame Naples expanded economically but the how and why are allusive.
 
Re addressing this issue after reading "Sicily" by Sandra Benjamin I can say Screw the Barons of Sicily!!!!! It was pretty much entierly their fault that Sicily remained a Feudal, Corrupt Backwater unto the time of Garbaldi. Better they be shoved off on their own then be a lead weight around the neck of Carlos! In every field they win for being the worst of worst of nobility!!!
 
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