Charles II of Spain dies in infancy

Either:

A member of the House of Bourbon would have made it to the throne?

Anther Hapsburg from Austria would have taken his place?

If Charles of Spain died in his teens or early twenties, perhaps James Stuart, the future James II of England and VII of Scotland would have been given the Spanish Crown?
 
Last edited:
If he dies in infancy, then I think you'll see the War of Spanish Succession start much sooner. Charles II was born in 1661, and became King of Spain in 1665. Louis, the son of the King of France and Charles' older sister, was also born in 1661, and would be the heir apparent once Charles II dies.

Charles II of England is coming to the throne as Spanish succession falls into crisis. Louis XIV is a young man, who in OTL launched his first war in 1665, when Philip IV died. In this TL, he will launch a war in favor of his young son Louis, who he will try to put on the Spanish throne. I think that the Austrians would definitely oppose him, but how much can they? The English are on the sidelines, out of the war because of Charles' de facto alliance with the French. The Dutch will only get involved if the French are successful in the Low Countries- something that probably won't happen because Louis XIV is focusing his military on taking Spain proper.

So Louis XIV can probably get Spain, and on Louis XIV's death Louis I of Spain becomes Louis XV of France and Spain (France being the more senior Kingdom). That would do all kinds of things to history, and they probably don't bode well for the European balance-of-power.
 
Either:

A member of the House of Bourbon would have made it to the throne?

Anther Hapsburg from Austria would have taken his place?

If Charles of Spain died in his teens or early twenties, perhaps James Stuart, the future James II of England and VII of Scotland would have been given the Spanish Crown?

The eldest sibling would be Marie-Therese, wife of Louis XIV, unless she did sign away her rights then the crown goes to her. Of course the Spanish never paid the dowry and probably haven't here either. So probably no fuss over the succession this time around. Unless of course Leopold still puts up a fuss being married to the younger sister Margaret Theresa. Which he could in which case...earlier war of Spanish Succession... just when you talking...pre-1673. If its before Phillip IV dies he will give the inheritance to Leopold in his will, and probably insure that the infanta's dowry is paid as well so as to void the French claim.

Either the dauphin of France or Leopold are going to be mighty popular on the Royal marriage circuit.
 
Last edited:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that even in his will Philip IV directed that an Austrian Habsburg should inheirate the throne upon Charles' death. It stands to reason therefore that he would likely name an Austiran Habsburg as his heir if Charles preceeds him in death. Perhaps Karl Joseph survives, perhaps he names Mariana knowing that Leopold will ensure her rights. Perhaps he legitimizes John of Austria, the younger.

I've always been more interested in what if one of the other sons that died before Charles (Balthazar, Philip, or Thomas), survived. By all accounts they weren't genetic freaks, although for the latter two, without several generations of very new blood, one of their descendents probably would have been a genetic freak like Charles II.
 
If he dies in infancy, then I think you'll see the War of Spanish Succession start much sooner. Charles II was born in 1661, and became King of Spain in 1665. Louis, the son of the King of France and Charles' older sister, was also born in 1661, and would be the heir apparent once Charles II dies.

Charles II of England is coming to the throne as Spanish succession falls into crisis. Louis XIV is a young man, who in OTL launched his first war in 1665, when Philip IV died. In this TL, he will launch a war in favor of his young son Louis, who he will try to put on the Spanish throne. I think that the Austrians would definitely oppose him, but how much can they? The English are on the sidelines, out of the war because of Charles' de facto alliance with the French. The Dutch will only get involved if the French are successful in the Low Countries- something that probably won't happen because Louis XIV is focusing his military on taking Spain proper.

So Louis XIV can probably get Spain, and on Louis XIV's death Louis I of Spain becomes Louis XV of France and Spain (France being the more senior Kingdom). That would do all kinds of things to history, and they probably don't bode well for the European balance-of-power.

I think the Dutch would be involved. Even if Louis's focus is on Spain proper the Spanish Netherlands are a too tempting target for him. After all, even if he doesn't get the crown he could receive it as a compensation.
So we would have the Dutch, Spain and Austria (probably with some other HRE's state) against Louis XIV. Actually, even England could have entered on the Spanish side. The secret Treaty of Dover was only signed in 1670. In 1668 Charles II (the English one) allied with Sweden and the Netherlands in order to oppose Louis XIV in the War of Devolution. Sure, the French won, but there were not able to take the entire Spanish Netherlands as they wanted.
If England join (maybe Sweden too) than I believe we would have the same result, the French winning but not being able to receive all they wanted (the entire Spanish possessions). And everybody needs to make concessions.
So Louis XIV abdicates his wife's claim to the throne, but gets some important Spanish territory (Milan? Naples? Netherlands?). Margaret is declared Queen of Spain, but she is not allowed to marry Leopold, in order to avoid the reunion of the Habsburg territories. As a compensation, Leopold receives some Spanish territories too (which of them?).
Margaret needs to marry, but as Leopold is the last male Habsburg than she needs to find another royal house. Also, I imagine that she would be pressed to marry fast, in order to ensure a heir. Who would be available by 1666?
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that even in his will Philip IV directed that an Austrian Habsburg should inheirate the throne upon Charles' death. It stands to reason therefore that he would likely name an Austiran Habsburg as his heir if Charles preceeds him in death. Perhaps Karl Joseph survives, perhaps he names Mariana knowing that Leopold will ensure her rights. Perhaps he legitimizes John of Austria, the younger.

Even if Philip IV declares one of his Austrian relatives to be his heir, I don't think that will stop Louis XIV from launching a war in favor of his son's claim. "Louis I" (is that the right numbering?) has a better claim than any other royal in Europe, and his father Louis XIV is in a position to really do something about making the claim real.

The War of Spanish Succession was fought near the end of Louis XIV's reign, when he was old and France was tired. In this TL, the *War of Spanish Succession will be Louis XIV's first war, and I think that we will be able to prevail.

I think the Dutch would be involved. Even if Louis's focus is on Spain proper the Spanish Netherlands are a too tempting target for him. After all, even if he doesn't get the crown he could receive it as a compensation.

The Dutch were originally allied to the French when Louis XIV first invaded the Spanish Netherlands- if anything I think that Louis XIV might be willing to recognize Dutch annexation of all the Spanish Netherlands in exchange for support against the Hapsburg.

Would this be a good idea for the Dutch? No, but they might not realize that for a while, since French military strength is focused on the long and bloody campaign for Spain, being fought in Spain proper and Italy.

So we would have the Dutch, Spain and Austria (probably with some other HRE's state) against Louis XIV. Actually, even England could have entered on the Spanish side. The secret Treaty of Dover was only signed in 1670. In 1668 Charles II (the English one) allied with Sweden and the Netherlands in order to oppose Louis XIV in the War of Devolution. Sure, the French won, but there were not able to take the entire Spanish Netherlands as they wanted.

The English didn't want French domination of the Netherlands- something that with Louis XIV's focus on Spain and Italy won't happen. I really think that this POD is the perfect one for a Bourbon-wank, since it comes with a strong France and the best foreign policy situation that France will probably have in the 17th century.

So Louis XIV abdicates his wife's claim to the throne, but gets some important Spanish territory (Milan? Naples? Netherlands?). Margaret is declared Queen of Spain, but she is not allowed to marry Leopold, in order to avoid the reunion of the Habsburg territories. As a compensation, Leopold receives some Spanish territories too (which of them?).
Margaret needs to marry, but as Leopold is the last male Habsburg than she needs to find another royal house. Also, I imagine that she would be pressed to marry fast, in order to ensure a heir. Who would be available by 1666?

I vote for Bourbon-wank. Louis XIV wins Spain and Spain's colonial possessions, and agrees to Austrian ownership of Spain's Italian possessions, and Dutch ownership of Spanish Netherlands. Louis XIV appoints a Frenchman as his son's regent in Spain, which doesn't appreciate that, but is too exhausted to do much about it.

Perhaps send Louis XIV's younger son to Spain for his education? The clear implication is that the younger son will become his older brother's Spanish viceroy, once Louis XIV dies. The new Bourbon regime in Madrid begins to reform the whole structure of the Spanish Empire, with a clear eye towards rendering the thing easier to rule from Paris. The addition of the Spanish Empire prompts Louis XIV to build up naval strength in order to make sure he is able to maintain control of the vast new territory- the cost of this naval expansion perhaps precludes further wars against the Dutch and Austrians? (A naive notion- Louis XIV not making constant war- I know)
 
Even if Philip IV declares one of his Austrian relatives to be his heir, I don't think that will stop Louis XIV from launching a war in favor of his son's claim. "Louis I" (is that the right numbering?) has a better claim than any other royal in Europe, and his father Louis XIV is in a position to really do something about making the claim real.

Philip IV (or was it Charles II himself? I dont' remember right now) DID declare the future Philip V, granson of Louis XIV as his heir -and indeed he was crowned as king when his cousin died. That did not prevent the war :cool:
 
I vote for Bourbon-wank. Louis XIV wins Spain and Spain's colonial possessions, and agrees to Austrian ownership of Spain's Italian possessions, and Dutch ownership of Spanish Netherlands. Louis XIV appoints a Frenchman as his son's regent in Spain, which doesn't appreciate that, but is too exhausted to do much about it.

Perhaps send Louis XIV's younger son to Spain for his education? The clear implication is that the younger son will become his older brother's Spanish viceroy, once Louis XIV dies. The new Bourbon regime in Madrid begins to reform the whole structure of the Spanish Empire, with a clear eye towards rendering the thing easier to rule from Paris. The addition of the Spanish Empire prompts Louis XIV to build up naval strength in order to make sure he is able to maintain control of the vast new territory- the cost of this naval expansion perhaps precludes further wars against the Dutch and Austrians? (A naive notion- Louis XIV not making constant war- I know)

If Louis' son (wouldn't his wife become queen before his son could be crowned?) is made king of Spain then I believe that there would be no reason to marry Margaret to a Habsburg, since the aim of that union (to secure Spanish succession into the House of Austria) doesn't exist anymore. So Leopold wouldn't marry his own niece and would choose other princess who could give him more diplomatic advantages. Who could she be? Also, who would Margaret marry? I imagine someone who wouldn't be perceived as a threat by the French.

Philip IV (or was it Charles II himself? I dont' remember right now) DID declare the future Philip V, granson of Louis XIV as his heir -and indeed he was crowned as king when his cousin died. That did not prevent the war :cool:

It was Charles II. Philip wanted a Habsburg as his heir IIRC.
 
Hapsburg succession is a certainty

First some points should be made.

The French claim to the throne is through Louis XIV's wife Marie-Therese. Phillips eldest daughter. As had become custom...the eldest infanta married to the French Royal family but abandonned her rights in doing so. The junior infanta married to the Austrian Hapsburgs to keep things in the family if their should be no male heir. Marie-Therese gave up her rights to the throne when she married Louis and was given a substantial dowry in doing so. The Spanish however with many other pressing financial concerns from previous wars with the French and a male heir in Charles never got around to paying that dowry. This is the basis of the French claim to the Spanish dominions.

If Charles dies young, you can be certain that the Spanish payment of that dowry will become somewhat more pressing and urgent Being that it was Phillips wish that it go to the Austrian branch, and that Leopold was initially disposed to a favourable partition with his French Cousins. Absent the French maternal lines and he is the most direct heir. Surely the Spanish can pawn some of their possessions as collateral on a loan to pay that dowry, why this was not done when Phillip died. Surely the Dutch and or English could back such a loan with the Spanish Netherlands as collateral. Milan itself should have been enough compensation for that dowry. Of course with Phillips death, the spectre of the French advancing their claims to the whole Empire through Marie-Therese is, well pressing. Louis is probably going to want something a bit more substantial. If Margaret does not marry Leopold then it should be rather easy for both the Dutch and the English to support such a move as the spectre of a re-aligning of Spain and Austria is as much anathema to Anglo-Dutch interests as a French-Spanish combination.

In hindsight with Phillips death, preparation should have been made to have her become Queen with adequate compensation to Marie-Therese. Marrying one of the Farnese of Parma would have been less problematic politically.

If she dies without heir as OTL then Leopold inherits. In the immediate term the spectre of Austro-Spanish union vanishes and makes it easier for Anglo-Dutch political support at the outset of Louis's reign in France. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY WILL NAMING the French Bourbon's as heir then Louis will be amenable to reasonable compensation, or efforts to pay fully his wife's dowry. It was only CHARLE'S Will naming Phillip as heir to the whole kit and kaboodle that allowed him to chance war in hopes of gaining even his most modest hopes and perhaps some unrealistic gains. Here that won't happen, as Phillip will still likely name the Austrian branch as successor and if Charles is dead, there will be no will contradicting those wishes. The Spanish empire then remains intact and not united with either the Hapsburgs or the Bourbons ( If Margaret does not marry Leopold). Even if she were to become the Spanish equivalent of Elizabeth I It would work out better in the end for the Spanish. The Spanish themselves would no doubt favour it as it avoids outright partition. If Margaret still marries Leopold then it will go to the Hapsburgs through Leopold.

Really though everything hinges on when Charles dies, before or after his father Phillip as it changes the political realities dramatically, regarding Margaret. If before Phillip she could be groomed to become heir herself.
 
specifics...

that satisfy the opening post...

Charles dies at the age of 2 in 1663.

Phillip is still alive but will prefer succession to go to the Austrian branch. The marriage of Margaret to Leopold is already arranged so we won't change that, and she will retain succession rights for herself and her descendants. ( No Salic law as yet in Spain). Since the marriage contract of Marie -Therese has not yet been strictly fulfilled. Phillip/ Leopold offer to exchange Milan for the Duchy of Lorraine and Bar. Louis will then be allowed to annex Lorraine and Bar to fulfill the terms of the marriage contract. Margaret becomes Queen of Spain and the Empire. Her mother will be regent until she reaches her majority. To gain Anglo-Dutch support. It is agreed that the Austrian dominions and the Spanish Dominions will be inherited by separate descendants of Leopold and Margaret so that the Two are not permanently joined in personal Union (Something along the lines of Charles and Ferdinand of earlier) The Elder will inherit Spain and the younger Austrian Dominions. (Obviously at the time Leopold/Phillip would envision this as Elder and younger sons of course).

Time progresses as OTL, no War is prosecuted. Louis is at the beginning of his reign and he can get compensation without exerting himself or the resources of France at all. If he were to push his luck, Spain would be aligned with Austria not France, so its probably best not to chance it lest the maritime interests find it in their interest to intervene ( Which of course they did in the War of the later Grand alliance) so his caution would not out of place.

Margaret after several miscarriages later dies in 1773 as OTL with only one surviving daughter. Maria Antonia will be Queen of Spain and its dominions at the age of 4. Spain will be ruled by a regency until she reaches her majority. Whether she still marries Maximilian is open to question as she will likely reside for the most part in Madrid. While Leopold as father will exert some influence on the regency, expect it to be dominated by Spanish interests who will want to pursue their own Spanish as opposed to Austrian Habsburg Agenda.

this is assuming minimal butterflies...however given the dynamics of the initial personal union Leopold and Margaret are likely to make Madrid their principal residence. Leopold will have to spend part of the time in Vienna, but Margaret will likely remain permanently in Madrid. Under these changed circumstances she may carry more of her pregnancies to term. Maria Antonia may be Anton instead. Margaret may live longer, though given the number of unsuccessful pregnancies and Leopold's desire for a male heir in Austria she is still likely to die following yet another miscarriage. If Margaret were to bare a male heir to Leopold at some point the need for her to continue attempting to bare heirs would be less pressing and she would be able to regain her strength, living a full life in this ATL.

However that would introduce a number of variables. If Margaret lives, she will remain Queen of Spain and bequeath the throne to a potential grandson should one occur and survive any of her sons or daughters.

Allowing her to die with only Maria -Antonia as offspring keeps the variables to a minimum through the 1770's and 80's.

So run with that.
 
Top